Michigan and Washington Set to Square Off in National Championship

Michigan and Washington Set to Square Off in National Championship

By: John Smith

As the college football season comes to a crescendo, all eyes are on the impending clash between the #1 Michigan Wolverines and the #2 Washington Huskies in the national championship. Both teams boast immaculate records, and their journey to this pinnacle promises an electrifying showdown on the grandest stage of college football.

Team Records:

• Michigan: 14-0

• Washington: 14-0

These two undefeated juggernauts have navigated a challenging season to earn the right to vie for the national championship, setting the stage for an epic battle.

Points Per Game (PPG):

• Michigan: 36

• Washington: 37.6

Michigan and Washington feature high-scoring offenses. Although the Huskies boast an explosive offense, Michigan averages just 1.6 less points per game.

Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):

• Michigan: 10.2 

• Washington: 24.1

Michigan's defense has been outstanding and helped them immensely in their semi-final game with Bama. That defense has allowed only 10.2 points per game this season. Washington faces the challenge of breaking through this defensive fortress to put points on the board while also trying to limit the physical Michigan offense. 

Best Wins:

• Michigan: 49-0 victory at #77 Michigan State

• Washington: 56-19 triumph vs. #47 Boise State

According to the Aggregate each teams best win came early in the season. For Michigan it was an absolute drubbing of rival Michigan State at Michigan State. The Wolverines gave no hope to the Spartans who the Aggregate rated as the 77th best team at that time. 

For Washington their best game came against Boise State. The Huskies handed the Broncos their worst loss of the season 56-19. Boise was ranked as the 47th best team at the time and went on to win the Mountain West conference. 

Worst Games:

• Michigan: 31-6 victory vs. #120 Bowling Green

• Washington: 15-7 win vs. #105 Arizona State

Despite their unblemished records, both teams have faced challenges in narrower victories against lower-ranked opponents. 

For the Wolverines their worst game performance as rated by the Aggregate came against Bowling Green. Michigan still won 31-6, but the Aggregate was unimpressed with only a 25 point margin against the 120th best team in the country while playing in the confines of the Big House.

For Washington their worst game was late in the season and it inspired many pundits including the Aggregate to pick against them in the Pac 12 championship and the CFP semi-final. The Huskies beat 105th ranked Arizona State 15-8. Somehow the Sun Devils were able to keep the potent Washington offense to just 15 points.  

Aggregate Ratings:

• Michigan: 52.3

• Washington: 44.7

Michigan enters the championship with a higher aggregate rating, but Washington has defied the Aggregate in it’s last two games. The Huskies are known for playing one score games and that has kept their Aggregate rating low, but their also known for winning those games. 

Predicted Score:

• Michigan: 30

• Washington: 23

The Aggregate likes Michigan to win by 7. It believes the Wolverines defense will keep Washington in check just enough to win. 

Vegas Odds:

• Michigan: -4.5 (Spread), -195 (Moneyline), Over/Under 55.5

• Washington: +4.5 (Spread), +165 (Moneyline), Over/Under 55.5

The Vegas odds suggest a closely contested matchup, with Michigan favored by a narrow margin. The Aggregate likes Michigan to win and cover with it’s own line being for Michigan at -7.6. However, the Aggregate is 93-106-3 on the season at accurately choosing the right spread team.

The moneyline is set at -195 for Michigan and the Aggregate really likes that bet. Not only does it see Michigan as the favorite, but it thinks the Wolverines have a 62.9 % chance to win. Unlike the spread the Aggregate has a proven track record for picking the moneyline correct at 72.8% of the time. It is 158-59 in moneyline bets this season. 

The Over/Under indicates expectations for a moderately high-scoring affair. The Aggregate likes the under in this case, but again it does not have a good track record in picking over/under. In its current prediction model it is 50-54. 

Consistency and Expectation:

• Michigan Consistency Rating: 45.9, Rank: 44th

• Washington Consistency Rating: 54.1, Rank: 78th

The Aggregate’s consistency rating is based on how far apart a teams best and worst performances were during the season. The less far the more consistent that team has been and the more likely that team is to reasonably deliver close to its expectation. This metric is not an evaluation of how good a team is. A consistently good team will score well in this measure, but so will a consistently bad team. Teams that are inconsistent may have more good games, but are more likely to also have some clunkers. 

Michigan’s consistency ranking this year is 44th which puts them in the top third of college teams. Washington’s ranking is 78th which puts them in the middle third of college teams. 

Performance Against Preseason Expectation:

• Michigan: -0.5

• Washington: -3.2

The performance against preseason expectations metric is derived based on a teams rating at the beginning of the season Both teams in this case have been very close to their preseason expectations with Washington being a little lower in rating because of their propensity to play close games. 

The Cheating Angle:

Michigan faced adversity this year with a suspension for cheating, but the incident has served to galvanize the team. The Wolverines have used this setback as motivation, turning a negative situation into a unifying force that has propelled them to the national championship. Most people wouldn’t see it this was, but the team has seemingly turned people’s outcry about the cheating into an us vs. the world kind of scenario even wearing Free Harbaugh shirts when their head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended for three games. 

Physicality and Awards:

Michigan is noted for its physical style of play, a characteristic that has been a key component of their success. It will be interesting to see how Washington handles the Wolverines physicality on both offense and defense. The Huskies are not known for their toughness, but their offensive line has been outstanding this year. In fact Washington's offensive line was recognized with the prestigious Joe Moore Award for being the best offensive line in the country, underscoring their prowess in the trenches.

As the Wolverines and Huskies prepare to clash in the national championship, fans can expect a thrilling contest between two powerhouse programs. This will be the last national championship played where only four teams were invited to the tournament. Will the Wolverines dominate the line and prove too much for the Huskies or will Washington’s passing attack wreak havoc and allow them to pull away? What do you think? 

This article was written with the assistance of Chat GPT. 

College Football Playoff Semi-final Preview Texas vs. Washington

As the college football world eagerly awaits the playoff semifinals, the matchup between the #3 Texas Longhorns and the #2 Washington Huskies is generating significant buzz. With both teams boasting impressive records and statistical strengths, this showdown promises to be a battle of titans.

Team Records:

• Texas: 12-1

• Washington: 13-0

The Longhorns, with just one loss on their record to their rival Oklahoma. They face an undefeated Washington team, setting the stage for an intense semi-final clash.

Points Per Game (PPG):

• Texas: 36.2

• Washington: 37.7

Both teams showcase potent offenses, capable of putting up substantial points. The Huskies hold a slight advantage in average points per game, highlighting their scoring prowess.

Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):

• Texas: 17.5

• Washington: 23.6

Texas boasts a stingy defense, allowing only 17.5 points per game. Washington, while solid defensively, concedes a slightly higher average, suggesting potential opportunities for the Longhorns to capitalize.

Best Wins:

• Texas: 57-7 victory vs. #35 Texas Tech

• Washington: 56-19 triumph vs. #47 Boise State

Texas’s biggest victory according to the Aggregate was a 57-7 shellacking they gave to rival Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were rated the 35th best team in the country at that time and the Longhorns had no trouble with them. Washington’s largest victory came early in the year a 56-19 beat down of non-power 5 team Boise State. The Broncos at the time were ranked as the Aggregate’s 47th best team in the country.  

Worst Games:

• Texas: 31-24 victory at #58 Houston

• Washington: 15-7 win vs. #105 Arizona State

Despite their impressive records, both teams have faced challenges in narrow victories against lower-ranked opponents. Texas had just a 7 point victory at #58 Houston who finished the season 4-8. Washington struggled to get by Arizona State who was ranked 105th in the country at that point. The Huskies won by just 8 points over a team that finished the season 3-9. 

Aggregate Ratings:

• Texas: 48.8

• Washington: 44.0

Texas holds a slight edge in the aggregate rating making them a 4.8 favorite in this game. 

Predicted Score:

• Texas: 30

• Washington: 24

The Aggregate sees Texas as slightly better than the Huskies. Predicted score is determined by teams points per game, points allowed per game and each teams Aggregate rating. 

Vegas Odds:

• Texas: -4 (Spread), -185 (Moneyline), Over/Under 63.5

• Washington: +4 (Spread), +155 (Moneyline), Over/Under 63.5

The Vegas odds indicate a closely matched game, with Texas favored by a narrow margin. The Over/Under suggests a high-scoring affair.

Chance to Win:

• Texas: 57.1%

• Washington: 42.9%

The Aggregate ran 196 simulations between both teams and found that Texas won 112 times Washington 84 times. According to the Aggregate Texas has a 57 percent chance to win. 

Consistency and Expectation:

• Texas Consistency Rating: 44.1, Rank: 38th

• Washington Consistency Rating: 54.1, Rank: 82nd

Texas boasts a lower consistency rating, reflecting their ability to deliver consistent performances throughout the season. This metric does not always show how good a team is, instead how often they perform at the same level. 

Performance Against Preseason Expectation:

• Texas: -2

• Washington: -3.2

Neither team has quite met their Aggregate preseason expectation, but they’re not far off from it. In fact both are better than their preseason rank: Texas 8th:5th, Washington 17th:12th. 

As the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies prepare to face off in this highly anticipated clash, college football fans can expect a thrilling contest with playoff implications on the line. The outcome of this semifinal promises to shape the narrative of the postseason and determine which team will advance to compete for the national championship.

CFP Semi-final Preview Alabama vs. Michigan

As the college football season reaches its pinnacle, fans are gearing up for an epic clash between the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide and the #1 Michigan Wolverines in the upcoming playoff semifinal. Both teams have had stellar seasons, boasting impressive records and statistical prowess that set the stage for a thrilling matchup.

Let's break down the numbers to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team heading into this highly anticipated showdown.

Team Records:

• Alabama: 12-1

• Michigan: 13-0

The Wolverines enter the matchup undefeated, showcasing their dominance throughout the season. However, the Crimson Tide, with just one loss, are determined to prove that they are a force to be reckoned with.

Points Per Game (PPG):

• Alabama: 35.1

• Michigan: 36.7

Both teams possess high-powered offenses, capable of putting up points in bunches. Michigan's slightly higher average indicates their explosive scoring ability, but Alabama's offense is certainly no slouch as Jalen Milroe found his groove late in the season.

Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):

• Alabama: 18.4

• Michigan: 9.5

Michigan's defense has been exceptional, holding opponents to an average of just 9.5 points per game. Although in fairness that was against a relatively weak Big 10 this year. Alabama, while solid defensively, will face a tough challenge in breaking down the Wolverines' stout defense.

Best Wins:

• Alabama: 24-10 victory vs. #4 Ole Miss

• Michigan: 49-0 blowout at #77 Michigan State

Both teams have notable victories against ranked opponents. Alabama’s came against Ole Miss whom the Aggregate had ranked as the 4th best team in the nation in that time. Michigan's dominant win over Michigan State was the Aggregates highest rated game for the Wolverines. Although not against a top rated team Michigan’s win over a rival at said rivals place was impressive.

Worst Games:

• Alabama: 17-3 victory at #119 USF

• Michigan: 31-6 win vs. #120 Bowling Green

While both teams have enjoyed success, their narrow victories over lower-ranked opponents highlight potential areas of vulnerability. It should be pointed out both of these games happened early in the season. For Alabama they had a different starting quarterback in their game.

Aggregate Ratings:

• Alabama: 47.8

• Michigan: 52.6

Michigan holds a slight advantage in the aggregate rating making them a 4.8 point Aggregate favorite 

Predicted Score:

• Alabama: 23

• Michigan: 28

The Aggregate predicts a final score of 28-23 in Michigan’s favor. The Predicted score is based on each team's rating, points per game and points allowed per game. 

Vegas Odds:

• Alabama: +1.5 (Spread), +105 (Moneyline), Over/Under 44.5

• Michigan: -1.5 (Spread), -125 (Moneyline), Over/Under 44.5

Vegas odds suggest a tight matchup, with both teams having a legitimate shot at victory. The Over/Under indicates a potentially low-scoring affair. The Aggregate predicts that the score will hit the over at 51. 

• Wins in 196 matchups: Alabama 75, Michigan 1, 120 ties

While the historical data heavily favors Alabama, this singular meeting promises to be a pivotal moment in their head-to-head record.

Chance to Win:

• Alabama: 38.5%

• Michigan: 61.5%

When calculating chance to win, the Aggregate simulates 196 matchups between the two teams. In those games Alabama won 75 times Michigan won 120 times and there was 1 tie. In the Aggregates opinion Michigan has a 61.5% chance to win the game.

Consistency and Expectation:

• Alabama Consistency Rating: 39.1, Rank: 19th

• Michigan Consistency Rating: 45.9, Rank: 46th

Alabama has been the more consistent team during this season. The consistency rating is calculated by comparing a team’s highest and lowest rating during the year. 

Performance Against Preseason Expectation:

• Alabama: -4.8

• Michigan: -0.5

Both teams have not met preseason expectations, but the Aggregate sees the Crimson Tide as the team that is the furthest from their preseason expectation. In fairness neither have fallen far. Alabama who has the biggest drop was preseason ranked 4th and the Aggregate currently has them 6th in the country.

Predicted High Score:

• Alabama: 31

• Michigan: 35

The predicted high score is based on each team’s rating, their points per game in wins and their points allowed in losses. 

As the stage is set for this colossal clash, college football enthusiasts can anticipate a matchup of titanic proportions, with two powerhouse programs vying for a spot in the national championship. Alabama's experience and Michigan's undefeated record add layers of intrigue, making this semifinal a must-watch event that could go down as an instant classic.

 

Army Navy Game Aggregate Preview

The Historic Army-Navy Game

By: John Smith

The Army-Navy game, steeped in tradition and history, is set to unfold with both teams entering the field at 5-6, adding an extra layer of intensity to this already fierce rivalry. As the two service academies prepare to face off, the aggregate metric predicts a tight battle, foreseeing a 21-20 victory for Army with a 53.5 percent chance of success. Vegas, too, has thrown its weight behind Army, designating them as a two-point favorite.

When analyzing the statistics, Army's offense seems to lack punch. The team averages 21 points per game. And they may struggle to score against a Navy defense that concedes an average of 23 points per game.

In wins, Army's offensive capabilities soar, averaging an impressive 32 points per game. Conversely, Navy’s defense struggles in losses, allowing opponents to score an average of 37 points per game.

The aggregate's high point prediction paints an intriguing picture: a potential 35-31 victory for Army. That total would far overcome the Vegas spread which is just 27.5 points for the game. This suggests that both teams have the capability to showcase their offensive strength, setting the stage for a high-scoring showdown.

Key Wins and Losses:

Examining the season's highlights and low points adds context to the upcoming game. Army's standout victory came in a hard-fought battle at UTSA, securing a 37-29 win. The Aggregate ranks UTSA as the 53rd best team in the country, emphasizing the significance of this win for Army.

On the other hand, Navy's most notable win was a commanding 31-6 victory over UAB. However, the Aggregate places UAB at 113th in the country, raising questions about the strength of Navy's competition.

When it comes to setbacks, Army faced a tough defeat at the hands of LSU, a team currently ranked 8th by the Aggregate. The 62-0 loss highlighted the challenges Army can encounter against top-tier opponents.

Navy's worst loss came in a 32-18 defeat at the hands of Temple, a team ranked 127th by the Aggregate. This loss raises concerns about Navy's ability to withstand pressure even against lower-ranked opponents.

As the Army-Navy game unfolds, the 5-6 records of both teams add an element of unpredictability to this historic clash. The aggregate metric favors Army with a slim margin, while Vegas designates them as a two-point favorite. The game promises to be a test of strength and strategy, with both teams eager to etch their names in the annals of this storied rivalry. The historic Army-Navy game remains a spectacle, showcasing the resilience and determination of two elite military academies on the football field.

This article was written with the assistance of ChatGPT.