Bowl Week 1 Predictions

 

Predictions for Bowl week 1. The Aggregate likes most of  the favorites in week one of the college bowl season. It does predict one victory for a non power 4 team over a power 4 team, but see's another non-power 4 team, who spent a good deal of the year ranked in the top 25, as a loser to a 6-6 power 4 squad. It also doesn't see any of the CFP games as being particularly close. 

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The Aggregate is picking the Memphis Tigers to beat West Virginia on Tuesday in the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl. The Mountaineers were originally the favorites in this game as shown below, but that is no longer the case. DraftKings now has Memphis -190. West Virginia was the better team this season, but they are hemorrhaging after losing their head coach. In addition to their head coach the team will not have 11 of their players or their former defensive coordinator. The Aggregate has them at about 60% of their regular season strength. 

The Aggregate is picking #24 UNLV to lose to the Cal Golden Bears. The Aggregate is predicting that the loss of head coach Barry Odom will be too much for the Runnin Rebels. This all despite Cal's loss of their starting quarterback, Fernando Mendoza who is in the transfer portal. 

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The Aggregate isn't predicting any of the CFP games to be closer than six points and it's giving the all the favorites at least a 63% chance of winning their game. Texas is the biggest favorite with a 76.5% chance to win and Penn State is the weakest favorite at just a 63.3% chance to win. e. 

Saturday, December 14th
Army	11-1	36	59.0%	-6.5		-245
Navy	8-3	30	41.0%	+6.5	39	+200
Western Michigan	6-6	28	26.6%	+10.0		+300
South Alabama	6-6	40	73.4%	-10.0	59.5	-380
Tuesday, December 17th
Memphis	10-2	38	59.8%	+1.5		-102
West Virginia	6-6	31	40.2%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Wednesday, December 18th
Western Kentucky	8-5	31	36.3%	+3.0		+124
James Madison	8-4	39	63.7%	-3.0	53.5	-148
California	6-6	31	54.9%	-1.5		-120
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-3	29	45.1%	+1.5	51.5	even
Thursday, December 19th
Georgia Southern	8-4	31	74.0%	-4.5		-180
Sam Houston	9-3	21	26.0%	+4.5	46.5	+150
Friday, December 20th
Ohio	10-3	36	54.6%	-2.5		-130
Jacksonville State	9-4	35	45.4%	+2.5	52	+110
Tulane	9-4	31	37.9%	+9.5		+260
Florida	7-5	36	62.1%	-9.5	49.5	-325
Indiana	11-1	31	30.2%	+8.5		+245
Notre Dame	11-1	42	69.8%	-8.5	51.5	-305
Saturday, December 21st
Southern Methodist	11-2	24	36.7%	+8.0		+240
Penn State	11-2	34	63.3%	-8.0	52.5	-298
Clemson	10-3	20	23.5%	+10.5		+310
Texas	11-2	35	76.5%	-10.5	53.5	-395
Tennessee	10-2	31	34.9%	+7.0		+195
Ohio State	10-2	37	65.1%	-7.0	46.5	-238

Champ Week Predictions

 Champ week Predictions for the Aggregate. The Aggregate mainly likes the favorites this week with only one exception in the median prediction model and an entirely different exception in the mean prediction model. All the teams are very well matched with only one reaching into the 60%. 

The one exception to the favorite for the Median prediction model, which has been the more accurate model, is SMU. The Mustangs are 11-1 and playing for the ACC title in their very first year in the conference. The season data tells us that SMU should beat Clemson 53.3% of the time. That's not a big advantage, but it is some. The Aggregate actually likes SMU even more than the 53.3% if the game was played at a true neutral site, but with the game in Charlotte it's giving Clemson a close to home field advantage that helps them be more in contention. Without a homefield advantage SMU's chance to win rises to 56.2% and the mean prediction (score) changes to liking the Ponies to win. 

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The exception to the favorite in the mean (score) prediction is the Arizona State Sun Devils. The mean prediction likes the Sun Devils by 1.4 points. This is in contrast to the median prediction which marks Iowa State as the favorite with a 50.3% chance to win. The mean prediction actually give Arizona State a 54.8% chance to win. Standard deviation is a large part of the mean prediction and the biggest reason it likes Arizona State is because of their low end standard deviation. While both Arizona State's top end and bottom end standard deviation are better than Iowa State's it's at the bottom end that the biggest difference occurs. If that was hard to follow basically the data tells us that the Sun Devils are noticeably better in their worst performances this year than Iowa State is and that makes them a slight favorite. 

Almost all games are a coin flip prediction although we'll point out that when the Aggregate says you have a 50% chance or better teams are winning 62.9% of the time. 

Championship Week CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Friday, December 6th
Western Kentucky	8-4	36	44.4%	+1.5		-102
Jacksonville State	8-4	40	55.6%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Tulane	9-3	42	59.2%	-4.0		-170
Army	10-1	37	40.8%	+4.0	48.5	+142
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-2	39	39.1%	+5.5		+180
Boise State	11-1	42	60.9%	-5.5	58.5	-218
Saturday, December 7th
Iowa State	10-2	32	50.3%	-1.0		-115
Arizona State	10-2	33	49.7%	+1.0	50.5	-105
Ohio	9-3	30	45.6%	-1.0		-110
Miami (OH)	8-4	34	54.4%	+1.0	45.5	-110
Texas	11-1	34	58.0%	-1.5		-118
Georgia	10-2	30	42.0%	+1.5	49.5	-102
Marshall	9-3	34	42.0%	+3.5		+140
Louisiana	10-2	36	58.0%	-3.5	58.5	-166
Southern Methodist	11-1	35	53.3%	+1.5		even
Clemson	9-3	36	46.7%	-1.5	54.5	-120
Penn State	11-1	28	46.2%	+3.0		+124
Oregon	12-0	30	53.8%	-3.0	51.5	-148