College Football Playoff Final Breakdown

                             

 

College Football Playoff Final Breakdown. We decided to give you a behind the scenes look into how we come up with our predictions and ratings for the college football playoff final. Below is an entire breakdown of almost all of the information that plays a part in our evaluations (Note: Sagarin, ESPN FPI and the Vegas and W/L columns are there just for comparison. They are not factored into the Aggregates equation.)

The Aggregate is giving Notre Dame a higher chance than most current analytics sites are right now. Out of all the predictions sites listed here the Aggregate is the most accurate when it comes to predicting games when a team has a 50%-59.9% chance to win, getting it right 60.8% of the time. In this case our prediction is the same as ESPN's FPI, Vegas and Sagarin all of whom are predicting Ohio State.

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A new feature that we added just this season was the injury impact. This category normally includes coaching changes and opt outs. Adding this category has helped us improve our bowl game accuracy. In the case of the final it has definitely made an impact. Before Notre Dame offensive lineman, Anthonie Knapp, was ruled out the Aggregate Median predictor actually favored Notre Dame, but now favors Ohio State. Typically an offensive lineman wouldn't have that much impact, but with the teams being so closely matched it pushed the favorite to Ohio State.

To help us understand how close this game is we can take a look at the teams standard deviation ranges. These ranges are determined by taking each teams assessed value from each game they played and figuring the standard deviation from those marks. When looking at the ranges Notre Dame has a higher top end to the range at 68.5 compared to Ohio State's 65.1. However, Ohio State seems more consistent with their low end of the standard deviation range being a 40.1 compared to Notre Dame's 36.5. 

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Team	Ohio State	Notre Dame
Records	13-2	14-1
SOS	20	14
Opponent Average Strength	30.6	31.1
Opponent Average Rank	47.4	44.0
Best Win	42-17W vs. (7) Tenn	66-7W @ (78) Purdue
Worst Loss	10-13L vs. (30) Michigan	14-16L vs. (109) NIU
Aggregate Mean Rating	52.6	52.5
Mean Standard Deviation Range	40.1-65.1	36.5-68.5
Average Injury Impact	1.3%	3.3%
Median Chance to Win	50.4%	49.6%
Mean C2W	51.9%	48.1%
Sagarin	57.0%	43.0%
ESPN's FPI	55.3%	44.7%
Vegas Favorite	x
W/L Favoirte		x
PPG	35.8	37.0
OPG	12.2	14.3
PPG in Wins	38.5	42.2
OPG in Wins	8.6	13.4
PPG in Losses	20.5	14.0
OPG in Losses	22.5	16.0
Mean Score Projection	30	29
Standard Deviation SP	30	14
Vegas Opening LIne	-9.5	9.5
Vegas Opening O/U	46.5	46.5

Betting Guide CFP Semi-finals

Betting Guide breakdown for the College football playoff semi's. If you're looking for our semi-finals predictions find them here: https://aggregaterankings.blogspot.com/2025/01/college-football-playoff-semi-final.html

Our Bets

Moneyline

Notre Dame -118

Texas +185

The Aggregate likes both of the favorites in the matchups Thursday and Friday, but does that make them a good bet? The Aggregate's betting philosophy is simple we want to make more money than we lose. To figure that out. We compare how often we lose at a certain prediction percentage to how much we stand to gain. For the Notre Dame vs. Penn State matchup we need to look at a couple things.

Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-118
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	-102

In this game the Aggregate has Notre Dame as a 70.8% favorite. When the Aggregate has predicted a team has at least a 70.0%-79.9% chance this year that team has won 71.4% of the time. So it losses 28.6% of the time. So let's say we made this bet 100 times for $1 each time. we would lose most likely $29 dollars. To make a profit we need however much we profit to be more than $29. We will use $30 for this example. So for 71 winning bets we need to win at least $30 to make a profit. So to achieve a profit we need for each bet to win at least $0.43 to turn a profit. For a $1 bet we would need odds of at least -235 or lower. Since Notre Dame is just -118 then they are a great bet in our opinion on the money line. 

Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

The best bet for the second game this week is to bet on Texas at +180. Teams who the Aggregate has predicted with a 40.0%-49.9% chance has won at a 39.4% rate this season. This means on a $1 bet we need to win at least $1.59 to turn a profit. +180 would give us a profit of $1.80. 

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Parlay

Notre Dame -118

Ohio State-225

+146 

Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-122
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	+102
Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

As we discussed above Notre Dame's likeliness to win is 71.4%. Ohio State's is also higher than the projected chance to win by the Aggregate. When the Aggregate is projecting a team to have a 50.0%-59.9% chance to win they actually win at a 60.1% rate. So to get our chances for both teams to win we multiply those probabilities together. That gives us a 42.9% chance for the parlay to hit. That means we need to overcome the losses of 57.1% of bets. That means we need at least +139 to make a profit. Obviously a line of +146 is better than that mark which makes it a good bet. 

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Against the Spread

Notre Dame -1.5

Texas +6.5

Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-122
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	+102
Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

The Aggregate has hit at a 53.1% rate this season at predicting against the spread. At that rate we would make a profit and so are smart bet here is on Notre Dame -1.5. The data tells us that the Fighting Irish should actually be favored by about 7. It's also at a little bit of a discount as the ATS bet right now is just -108 to make that bet at least on Draft Kings. 

Texas +6.5 is the second against the spread bet we're making here at the Aggregate. The data tells us that the Ohio State/Texas semi-final will be much closer than the Vegas line. Not only has the Aggregate hit at 53.1% in general in this category, but when the data is more than 5 points different than the line it's actually hitting at 54.2% of the time. 

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Over/Under

None

The Aggregate doesn't like any of the Over/Under bets this season based on the data. None of the parameters are present in these games where the Aggregate has made money on the over/under this season so we are not recommending any over/under bet this week.

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The Aggregate is not responsible for any decision any individual makes. Please gamble responsibly and if you need help reach out. 

College Football Playoff Semi-final Predictions

 College football playoff semi-final predictions. The Aggregate likes Notre Dame as a big favorite. In the second game the data is telling us it will be a much closer game with Ohio State being the slight favorite over the Longhorns.

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For the game on Thursday night the data tells us that Notre Dame is a touchdown favorite over Penn State. Often the biggest thing brought up for Notre Dame is their week two loss to Northern Illinois, but the data from this season tells us that game is the outlier for the Irish. Notre Dame's Aggregate value score for that game was a 4.3. Their next closest score to that this season for the Irish is a 38.1. In fact the range of the rest of their game value scores is 38.1-77.8. Penn State conversely has been very consistent, but they have not shown the upper end that Notre Dame has. Their range of game scores this season is 25.3-62.6.  

Other metrics don't favor Notre Dame quite as much as the Aggregate. The Vegas line has them only as a 1.5 point favorite. Jeff Sagarin has them with a 58% chance to win and ESPN's FPI has them with a 58.6% chance. The Aggregate's other prediction style, the mean prediction, has the Irish with a 69.7% chance. When ESPN's FPI predicts a team in the 50.1%-59.9% chance to win they win 50% of the time. When Sagrain predicts 50.1%-59.9% they win 53.9% of the time. However, when the Aggregate mean predicts 60%-69.9% they win 74.6% of the time and when the Aggregate median predicts 70%-79.9% the team wins 71.4% of the time. 

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In the week's second game the Aggregate is predicting a much closer contest. The Aggregate see's Ohio State as a slight favorite in this game. The Buckeyes are favored by one point and given a 54.2% chance below. Before the last round of the playoffs the data actually showed Texas as a slight favorite in this game, but the Buckeyes rout of Oregon and the Longhorns close game with the Sun Devils changed the data's prediction. 

The Buckeyes are averaging beating their opponents by 24 points. This against the 26th hardest schedule in the country this year. The Longhorns averaged beating opponents by 19.5 points per game against a schedule that the Aggregate ranks as the 11th hardest in the country. 

CFP Semi-finals Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-122
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	+102
Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

CFB Bowl Week 3 Picks

 College football bowl picks for week 3. The Aggregate is picking only one upset in the CFP. It also likes Ohio State to get revenge against the Oregon Ducks. Nor is it giving the Carson Beck-less Georgia Bulldogs much of a chance to beat Notre Dame. 

The Aggregate likes Notre Dame to beat the Georgia Bulldogs today. The data tells us the game should not be that close predicting a 36-24 victory. Certainly the loss of Carson Beck plays a factor in the Aggregate's prediction, but even if Beck was not injured the Georgia's chances would still just be 33%. In fact the data right now points to Notre Dame being the best team in the country. The Irish  have had the 17th toughest SOS in the country and are averaging beating their opponents by 29 points a game.

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The Aggregate favors Ohio State in their rematch with the Ducks, but it should be pointed out they also favored them in their game early in the season. The Buckeyes will have the advantage this time of not having to play at Oregon as the game is in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks actually have the better SOS, 19th-26th, but the Buckeyes are beating those opponents by an average of 7 points more per game. 

Bowl Week 3 CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Iowa	8-4	35	60.9%	+2.5		+105
Missouri	9-3	30	39.1%	-2.5	43.5	-125
Alabama	9-3	34	72.8%	-11.5		-395
Michigan	7-5	21	27.2%	+11.5	43.5	+310
Louisville	8-4	36	62.7%	-5.0		-192
Washington	6-6	30	37.3%	+5.0	50.5	+160
South Carolina	9-3	31	54.4%	-11.5		-425
Illinois	9-3	30	45.6%	+11.5	47.5	+330
Baylor	8-4	37	49.1%	+3.0		+130
Louisiana State	8-4	36	50.9%	-3.0	60.5	-155
Penn State	12-2	36	78.6%	-10.5		-355
Boise State	12-1	21	21.4%	+10.5	52.5	+280
Texas	12-2	34	72.9%	-13.5		-550
Arizona State	11-2	21	27.1%	+13.5	52.5	+410
Ohio State	11-2	37	60.2%	-1.0		-115
Oregon	13-0	34	39.8%	+1.0	53.5	-105
Notre Dame	12-1	36	70.9%	+1.0		-105
Georgia	11-2	24	29.1%	-1.0	44.5	-115
Duke	9-3	20	10.1%	+14.0		+410
Mississippi	9-3	38	89.9%	-14.0	53.5	-550
North Texas	6-6	27	23.7%	+7.5		+250
Texas State	7-5	44	76.3%	-7.5	66.5	-310
Minnesota	7-5	30	66.9%	-4.5		-175
Virginia Tech	6-6	24	33.1%	+4.5	42.5	+145
Buffalo	8-4	37	49.7%	+3.5		+136
Liberty	8-4	39	50.3%	-3.5	51.5	-162