Final Conference Rankings

 The end of year rankings for the conferences in college football. It may surprise many, but the data tells us that the SEC is still the best conference in college football. The data also is telling us that the Big 12 was better than the ACC this year. The Mountain West capitalized on a rebuilding year from the Sunbelt to rank as the best group of five conference this season.

According to the data we use to analyze games and predict future outcomes the SEC is the best conference in college football this year. That may surprise many as the Big 10 had a very good bowl season and with Ohio State winning the national championship. Here is a team by team breakdown of the two conferences. 

Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank	Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank
Texas	13-3	48.6	3	Ohio State	14-2	53.3	1
Mississippi	10-3	48.3	4	Penn State	13-3	45.9	5
Alabama	9-4	45.7	6	Oregon	13-1	45.1	7
Tennessee	10-3	44.7	8	Indiana	11-2	44.5	9
Georgia	11-3	44.1	10	Iowa	8-5	37.6	17
Florida	8-5	37.9	15	Southern California	7-6	37.2	20
South Carolina	9-4	37.9	16	Michigan	8-5	36.9	21
Louisiana State	9-4	37.6	18	Minnesota	8-5	36.4	22
Texas A&M	8-5	36.3	23	Illinois	10-3	33.1	30
Arkansas	7-6	32.6	32	Nebraska	7-6	31.1	37
Auburn	5-7	32.0	33	Washington	6-7	30.3	40
Oklahoma	6-7	31.6	35	Wisconsin	5-7	29.8	45
Missouri	10-3	31.2	36	Rutgers	7-6	27.9	48
Vanderbilt	7-6	30.3	41	UCLA	5-7	24.5	59
Kentucky	4-8	23.9	62	Maryland	4-8	22.1	64
Mississippi State	2-10	20.9	68	Northwestern	4-8	20.5	70
				Michigan State	5-7	20.4	71
				Purdue	1-11	7.1	115
Average		36.5	26			32.4	38

As you can see the data tells us that Ohio State was better than any SEC team, but the trend than quickly reverses itself. Many teams are very close compared to each other, but the glaring differences are Georgia compared to Iowa, 44.1-37.6 and Vanderbilt compared to UCLA, 30.3-24.5. Then the biggest difference is Purdue sitting at 115th is dragging the Big 10's averages down. 

The algorithm also see's the Big 12 as a better conference this year than the ACC. Two ACC teams got into the college football playoff, but many argued that it should have been the Big 12 that got two in. The data tells us that it should have been two ACC teams in, but it wasn't the two that ended up there. Even with that the Aggregate see's the Big 12 as the better conference overall. Here is the comparison of the two. 

Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank	Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank
Miami (FL)	10-3	43.4	11	Arizona State	11-3	39.0	13
Louisville	9-4	39.4	12	Brigham Young	11-2	35.9	24
Clemson	10-4	38.1	14	Colorado	9-4	35.5	25
Southern Methodist	11-3	37.4	19	Iowa State	11-3	33.7	27
Virginia Tech	6-7	34.5	26	Kansas State	9-4	33.7	28
Georgia Tech	7-6	33.3	29	Baylor	8-5	32.6	31
Boston College	7-6	30.7	39	Kansas	5-7	31.9	34
Syracuse	10-3	27.6	49	Texas Christian	9-4	30.2	43
Duke	9-4	27.4	50	Utah	5-7	28.8	46
Pittsburgh	7-6	27.2	52	Central Florida	4-8	28.7	47
Virginia	5-7	24.3	60	Texas Tech	8-5	27.3	51
North Carolina State	6-7	22.4	63	West Virginia	6-7	26.2	55
North Carolina	6-7	21.9	65	Cincinnati	5-7	24.7	56
Wake Forest	4-8	18.0	80	Oklahoma State	3-9	20.0	72
Stanford	3-9	17.6	83	Houston	4-8	19.2	74
Florida State	2-10	14.9	89	Arizona	4-8	14.8	90
Average		28.6	46			28.9	45

As you can see the top 6 in the ACC were better than the Big 12, but the next 9 teams were better in the Big 12. This middle to end made the Big 12 a slightly better conference overall than the ACC. This is one place that shows why this kind of data is important. Often public perception about a conference is driven by the top teams, but that never gives a whole view. In this case the top of the ACC was clearly better than the top of the Big 12, but when you look at the entire conference you see that the Big 12 was actually the better conference overall. 

Finally the data tells us that the Mountain West was the best group of five conference this season. Although none of it's teams made our top 25 both Boise and UNLV made our top 50. It was the only group of five conference to do that. They also had six teams in our top 100.

CFB Top Conferences
Rank	Conference	Average Rating	Average Rank	Teams in the Top 25
1	SEC	36.5	26	9
2	Big 10	32.4	38	8
3	Big 12	28.9	45	3
4	ACC	28.5	47	4
5	FBS Ind	22.8	68	1
6	Pac 2	17.1	83	0
7	Mountain West	15.2	89	0
8	Sun Belt	13.8	91	0
9	AAC	12.5	94	0
10	MAC	7.3	106	0
11	CUSA	5.3	112	0

Conference Ranks Through Week 8

This is a metric we keep each week, but had not published until now. The following is a breakdown of each conferences strength based on the average rating of their teams in the Aggregate. Also included is the average rank of their teams although it is not included as part of the formula for ranking them. 

CFB Top Conferences
Rank	Conference	Average Rating	Average Rank	Teams in the Top 25
1	SEC	37.5	26	9
2	Big 10	34.4	33	7
3	ACC	30.2	45	4
4	Big 12	29.2	46	3
5	Pac 2	23.2	69	0
6	FBS Ind	21.5	69	1
7	Mountain West	14.6	88	0
8	Sun Belt	14.2	92	0
9	AAC	12.7	93	0
10	MAC	7.2	107	0
11	CUSA	5.2	109	0

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Week 4 Conference Rankings

  

Week 4 conference rankings for college football. No real surprises here. This is our first conference rankings of the year and things don't look much different from last year except for the subtraction of the Pac 12. The Mountain West is also now rated higher than the Sun Belt. 

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CFB Top Conferences
Rank	Conference	Average Rating	Average Rank	Teams in the Top 25
1	SEC	37.6	29	9
2	Big 10	35.1	32	5
3	ACC	31.2	43	5
4	Big 12	29.8	45	5
5	Pac 2	26.2	58	0
6	FBS Ind	19.3	77	1
7	Mountain West	15.7	89	0
8	Sun Belt	14.3	94	0
9	AAC	13.5	94	0
10	MAC	9.6	102	0
11	CUSA	6.2	114	0

Sunbelt Coaches Aggregate Adjusted Win Percentage

                                                                   

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

For the Sunbelt this year Shawn Clark from App State has the highest adjusted winning percentage with 64.3%. Clark is one of the longest tenured coaches in the Sunbelt going into his 5th year there. 

Note: Neither Bob Chesney or Dell McGee have an FBS win or loss which is why they're fields are incomplete. 

Sun Belt Coaches	Team	W	L	W Pct
Bob Chesney	JMU	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Dell McGee	GA State	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Shawn Clark	App State	29.8	16.5	64.3%
Tim Beck	Coastal Carolina	4.0	2.5	61.5%
G.J. Kinne	Texas State	4.0	2.5	61.5%
Major Applewhite	S. Alabama	5.8	3.9	59.7%
Charles Huff	Marshall	18.5	14.0	56.9%
Clay Helton	GSU	37.1	29.3	55.9%
Butch Jones	Ark St	61.5	50.0	55.2%
Bryant Vincent	ULM	1.8	1.5	53.8%
Michael Desormeaux	Louisiana	9.3	10.5	46.8%
Ricky Rahne	Old Dominion	12.0	19.5	38.1%
Will Hall	Southern Miss	11.5	19.5	37.1%
Gerad Parker	Troy	0.0	0.8	0.0%

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