End of Year Top 25 Rankings

End of year top 25 rankings. After the bowl season teams moved around a lot. Ohio State climbs to the top. Arizona State was our biggest climber. Colorado had our biggest drop. We have five teams in the exact same spot as the AP and we have three teams ranked that the AP couldn't find space for. Florida is our biggest disagreement with the AP ranking 18 spots higher in our ranking than theirs. 

It doesn't always happen with the Aggregate rankings and the eventual national championship, but this year the algorithm agrees with what happened on the field. Ohio State was rated the nations best team according to the data with Notre Dame second. The Buckeyes were highly rated all season by the numbers, but really came into their own at the end. Ohio State started ranked 4th in our system and never went above 9th on the season. 

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Arizona State was our biggest climber this week rising eight spots. The Sun Devils showed a lot in the college football playoffs and were one of the years best stories. We had them ranked as the 85th best team in the country to start the year and their change of 72 places was the best for any team this season. 

The Colorado Buffaloes had the most precipitous drop this week. The Buffaloes retained almost all their star players for their matchup with BYU and the Aggregate had them as a 4 point favorite, but BYU took it to them winning the Alamo bowl 36-14. 

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We have three teams ranked in our final 25 that the AP couldn't find space for even in their receiving votes. The numbers tell us that Iowa, USC and Minnesota all our top 25 teams in the country even though their records are not as sexy. The Hawkeyes reason for being so high was some good wins against edge top 25 schools. They beat teams ranked 32, 28 and 25 by a combined 73 points. USC was helped by two things. The Trojans bookended their season with a victory over top 25 schools and then all of their losses sans Notre Dame were by single digits. Minnesota started the season 2-3, but finished the year 6-2 with wins over two top 25 schools. 

The numbers tell us that the Florida Gators are a much better team than 33rd in the country. The Gators went up as high as 53rd during the season, but their improved performance over the latter part of the season has us putting them all the way at 15th. Florida beat LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State and then Tulane to finish the season. State not withstanding those other wins were very impressive and moved Florida up high on our list.

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Ohio State	14-2	+2	53.3	1
2	Notre Dame	14-2	-1	51.8	2
3	Texas	13-3	-1	48.6	4
4	Mississippi	10-3	0	48.3	11
5	Penn State	13-3	+3	45.9	5
6	Alabama	9-4	-1	45.7	17
7	Oregon	13-1	0	45.1	3
8	Tennessee	10-3	-2	44.7	9
9	Indiana	11-2	0	44.5	10
10	Georgia	11-3	+1	44.1	6
11	Miami (FL)	10-3	-1	43.4	18
12	Louisville	9-4	0	39.4	28
13	Arizona State	11-3	+8	39.0	7
14	Clemson	10-4	+2	38.1	14
15	Florida	8-5	+7	37.9	33
16	South Carolina	9-4	-2	37.9	19
17	Iowa	8-5	-2	37.6	NR
18	Louisiana State	9-4	+1	37.6	27
19	Southern Methodist	11-3	-6	37.4	12
20	Southern California	7-6	-2	37.2	NR
21	Michigan	8-5	+3	36.9	29
22	Minnesota	8-5	+4	36.4	NR
23	Texas A&M	8-5	-3	36.3	35
24	Brigham Young	11-2	+4	35.9	13
25	Colorado	9-4	-8	35.5	25
134	Kent State	0-12	-	-16.0	NR

Bowl Week 1 Predictions

 

Predictions for Bowl week 1. The Aggregate likes most of  the favorites in week one of the college bowl season. It does predict one victory for a non power 4 team over a power 4 team, but see's another non-power 4 team, who spent a good deal of the year ranked in the top 25, as a loser to a 6-6 power 4 squad. It also doesn't see any of the CFP games as being particularly close. 

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The Aggregate is picking the Memphis Tigers to beat West Virginia on Tuesday in the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl. The Mountaineers were originally the favorites in this game as shown below, but that is no longer the case. DraftKings now has Memphis -190. West Virginia was the better team this season, but they are hemorrhaging after losing their head coach. In addition to their head coach the team will not have 11 of their players or their former defensive coordinator. The Aggregate has them at about 60% of their regular season strength. 

The Aggregate is picking #24 UNLV to lose to the Cal Golden Bears. The Aggregate is predicting that the loss of head coach Barry Odom will be too much for the Runnin Rebels. This all despite Cal's loss of their starting quarterback, Fernando Mendoza who is in the transfer portal. 

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The Aggregate isn't predicting any of the CFP games to be closer than six points and it's giving the all the favorites at least a 63% chance of winning their game. Texas is the biggest favorite with a 76.5% chance to win and Penn State is the weakest favorite at just a 63.3% chance to win. e. 

Saturday, December 14th
Army	11-1	36	59.0%	-6.5		-245
Navy	8-3	30	41.0%	+6.5	39	+200
Western Michigan	6-6	28	26.6%	+10.0		+300
South Alabama	6-6	40	73.4%	-10.0	59.5	-380
Tuesday, December 17th
Memphis	10-2	38	59.8%	+1.5		-102
West Virginia	6-6	31	40.2%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Wednesday, December 18th
Western Kentucky	8-5	31	36.3%	+3.0		+124
James Madison	8-4	39	63.7%	-3.0	53.5	-148
California	6-6	31	54.9%	-1.5		-120
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-3	29	45.1%	+1.5	51.5	even
Thursday, December 19th
Georgia Southern	8-4	31	74.0%	-4.5		-180
Sam Houston	9-3	21	26.0%	+4.5	46.5	+150
Friday, December 20th
Ohio	10-3	36	54.6%	-2.5		-130
Jacksonville State	9-4	35	45.4%	+2.5	52	+110
Tulane	9-4	31	37.9%	+9.5		+260
Florida	7-5	36	62.1%	-9.5	49.5	-325
Indiana	11-1	31	30.2%	+8.5		+245
Notre Dame	11-1	42	69.8%	-8.5	51.5	-305
Saturday, December 21st
Southern Methodist	11-2	24	36.7%	+8.0		+240
Penn State	11-2	34	63.3%	-8.0	52.5	-298
Clemson	10-3	20	23.5%	+10.5		+310
Texas	11-2	35	76.5%	-10.5	53.5	-395
Tennessee	10-2	31	34.9%	+7.0		+195
Ohio State	10-2	37	65.1%	-7.0	46.5	-238