This is a metric we keep each week, but had not published until now. The following is a breakdown of each conferences strength based on the average rating of their teams in the Aggregate. Also included is the average rank of their teams although it is not included as part of the formula for ranking them.
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Week 4 conference rankings for college football. No real surprises here. This is our first conference rankings of the year and things don't look much different from last year except for the subtraction of the Pac 12. The Mountain West is also now rated higher than the Sun Belt.
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I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for.
This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.
The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.
Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.
With all that said here is the fourth in the series, the Mountain West conference. You will notice that this includes only teams eligible for the Mountain West Championship game. Despite playing six games against Mountain West teams this year neither Oregon State nor Washington State are eligible in the Mountain West standings at the time of this posting.
Biggest thing that stands out about the Mountain West is their lack of under .500 coaches. They have only two. Compared to the conferences I've evaluated so far that is extremely low. The next closest conference to that was Conference USA with six.
What does that mean for the Mountain West? Mostly I think it means they have a lot of retread coaches. There are three coaches in the Mountain West with 100 plus adjusted wins. None of the conferences I have evaluated so far have had any. Seven Mountain West coaches had previous coaching stops as head coaches and then there is Troy Calhoun who has been at Air Force since 2007.
So who is the Coach with the best adjusted win percentage in the Mountain West? Well it's Spencer Danielson although the adjusted winning percentage only gives him credit for .75 wins and .25 losses. In other words they went 3-1 when he took over last year, but since he took over at the end of the season the adjusted winning percentage only gives him credit for 25% of the wins and losses. We'll get a better idea of how good he is after this season.
Behind him is Bronco Mendenhall with a career adjusted winning percentage of 64.7%. You've got to feel good if you're a Lobos fan right now. You just hired a coach with a very good winning pedigree.
Note: Jay Sawvel and Jeff Choate have no wins or losses as an FBS coach which is why they're an incomplete here.
The Aggregate predictions for the Chic-Fil-A Peach Bowl, the TransPerfect Music City Bowl, the Capital One Orange Bowl and the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl. The Aggregate likes all the favorites except for one. The algorithm is betting against Vegas in the Arizona Bowl taking 11-2 Toledo over 8-4 Wyoming. The algorithm likes the Rockets by one point and in it's median prediction actually does like Wyoming. Other big differences: The Aggregate likes Georgia by just three against Florida State instead of the 14 Vegas is giving in the game. It's important to point out that the Aggregate does not consider player or coach departures. It also likes Penn State by 13. The Vegas line is only four in their game against Ole Miss.
Aggregate predictions for Decebmer 26th. The Aggregate is picking one upset in the Rice Owls. The Owls are only 6-6 this season, but the Aggregate likes them by six points over Texas State. What is your opinion on these games?
The Aggregate predicts two upsets and is split on one game for this weekend. So far the Aggregate is 6-1 in bowl games.
The Aggregate sees Duke as the favorite against Troy. The Blue Devils have lost their coach for the game and that is likely why Vegas is favoring Troy by 7.5. It's important to remember the Aggregate doesn't factor in things like injuries, players sitting out or coaches leaving. It sees Duke as the favorite based on the games they've played this year. Do you think the Blue Devils can pull it off?
The Aggregates second upset pick is Northern Illinois over Arkansas State. The Huskies rate as a one point favorite according to the Aggregate algorithm while Vegas sees it the other way. Either way the Aggregate sees it as an extremely close match up giving the Huskies just a .6 percent better chance of winning than the Red Wolves. Do you think the Huskies pull the upset?
The Aggregate is split on a decision between Utah State and Georgia State. This happens because of how each measurement is determined. The predicted score is determined by the total of each value from each teams games in the season. The Chance to Win is determined by using each teams values for each game and comparing them to each other. For example in this determination the values for each team were compared 169 times and Georgia State had the higher value in 85 of those comparisons leading to a 50.3 percent chance to win. Either way the margin is very thin. Who do you like in this game?
What other game stands out to you? Do you disagree with the Aggregate?
The Aggregate see's two upsets in the first week of bowl matchups. It predicts (9-3) Ohio will upset favored (6-6) Georgia Southern by a score of 27-24. The Ealges are favored in the game by 3.5 points. The other upset the Aggregate predicts is the (8-4) Fresno State Bulldogs taking down the (10-4) New Mexico State Aggies 27-24. The Aggies are a 3 point favorite. What do you think about this weekend's matchups?
The Aggregate's "what if" championship week prediction. Did your team not play up to its potential this week? Or maybe they had a tougher schedule than the teams in playing in the championship game? Well this is the Aggregates "what if" prediction for each conference championship. Instead of taking the teams that actually made it to the game we took the teams that the Aggregate said were the best two teams in that conference and predicted what would happen if they played. Some games stayed the same. Some changed one opponent. The Aggregate believes the best team in the Mountain West got left out of the championship game.
The end of year rankings for the 2024 SEC season. The SEC had more parody than ever in the conference and without a dominant team at the t...
