Betting Guide CFP Semi-finals

Betting Guide breakdown for the College football playoff semi's. If you're looking for our semi-finals predictions find them here: https://aggregaterankings.blogspot.com/2025/01/college-football-playoff-semi-final.html

Our Bets

Moneyline

Notre Dame -118

Texas +185

The Aggregate likes both of the favorites in the matchups Thursday and Friday, but does that make them a good bet? The Aggregate's betting philosophy is simple we want to make more money than we lose. To figure that out. We compare how often we lose at a certain prediction percentage to how much we stand to gain. For the Notre Dame vs. Penn State matchup we need to look at a couple things.

Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-118
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	-102

In this game the Aggregate has Notre Dame as a 70.8% favorite. When the Aggregate has predicted a team has at least a 70.0%-79.9% chance this year that team has won 71.4% of the time. So it losses 28.6% of the time. So let's say we made this bet 100 times for $1 each time. we would lose most likely $29 dollars. To make a profit we need however much we profit to be more than $29. We will use $30 for this example. So for 71 winning bets we need to win at least $30 to make a profit. So to achieve a profit we need for each bet to win at least $0.43 to turn a profit. For a $1 bet we would need odds of at least -235 or lower. Since Notre Dame is just -118 then they are a great bet in our opinion on the money line. 

Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

The best bet for the second game this week is to bet on Texas at +180. Teams who the Aggregate has predicted with a 40.0%-49.9% chance has won at a 39.4% rate this season. This means on a $1 bet we need to win at least $1.59 to turn a profit. +180 would give us a profit of $1.80. 

College Football 25 on Amazon

Parlay

Notre Dame -118

Ohio State-225

+146 

Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-122
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	+102
Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

As we discussed above Notre Dame's likeliness to win is 71.4%. Ohio State's is also higher than the projected chance to win by the Aggregate. When the Aggregate is projecting a team to have a 50.0%-59.9% chance to win they actually win at a 60.1% rate. So to get our chances for both teams to win we multiply those probabilities together. That gives us a 42.9% chance for the parlay to hit. That means we need to overcome the losses of 57.1% of bets. That means we need at least +139 to make a profit. Obviously a line of +146 is better than that mark which makes it a good bet. 

Amazon Prime Free Trial

Against the Spread

Notre Dame -1.5

Texas +6.5

Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-122
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	+102
Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

The Aggregate has hit at a 53.1% rate this season at predicting against the spread. At that rate we would make a profit and so are smart bet here is on Notre Dame -1.5. The data tells us that the Fighting Irish should actually be favored by about 7. It's also at a little bit of a discount as the ATS bet right now is just -108 to make that bet at least on Draft Kings. 

Texas +6.5 is the second against the spread bet we're making here at the Aggregate. The data tells us that the Ohio State/Texas semi-final will be much closer than the Vegas line. Not only has the Aggregate hit at 53.1% in general in this category, but when the data is more than 5 points different than the line it's actually hitting at 54.2% of the time. 

Notre Dame Hoodies on Amazon

Over/Under

None

The Aggregate doesn't like any of the Over/Under bets this season based on the data. None of the parameters are present in these games where the Aggregate has made money on the over/under this season so we are not recommending any over/under bet this week.

Ohio State Beanie's on Amazon

The Aggregate is not responsible for any decision any individual makes. Please gamble responsibly and if you need help reach out. 

Week 6 College Football Predictions and Betting Guide

 Sorry guys. No predictions of betting guide this week. We are trying to get our score predictor factoring in standard deviation online. Both posts should be back next week. Thanks for your patience. 

Week 5 Betting Results

 

                                                                                                                                             

The Aggregate had a tough week five so much so that we're getting even more specific about our betting strategy to ensure gains and not losses. The reason we decided to invest money this season was that last year our data indicated that if we had bet $100 on underdogs and bet to win $100 on favorites we would have made $5,000. As a result we wanted to put that data to the test. Unfortunately we don't have the bankroll to place those type of bets. We don't even have the bankroll if you take off all the zeros. After all there were some bets that were $20,000 to win $100. That's a very easy bet when your money is imaginary, but a much harder one when it's not. So we've made some adjustments that we think will pay off. We'll share our new strategy in this week's betting breakdown. The results for the week were as follows: (One special note we were unable to go game by game for ESPN's FPI prediction, we'd really love to find someone who posts this info in list form, but have not found it yet, so we only have data from their picks in the top 25.)

Amazon Prime Free Trial

Overall:

The Aggregate: 37-17 (64.9%) 

The Aggregate's main predictor. If a team has a 50.1% chance to win according to the Aggregate then they fit into this category. The Aggregate had a very tough week here. Our result data last year was a little bit higher than 70% and we expect that data to prove true again this season. Last week was about exactly that, but this week was far below it. 

ESPN's FPI: 16-4 (80%)

Taken off of ESPN's website. The FPI continues to excel this season. As we said above it was a very limited sample this week, but ESPN's FPI has had a very good percentage all year. 

W-L: 40-15 (67.3%)

We track this because it's often suggested that the most important information when predicting games is a teams win loss ratio. This is often not actually the case, but it's good to have the data to back that up. The W/L predictor did very well this week and as a matter of consequence tends to better as the season goes along.

Jeff Sagarin: 39-16 (70.9%)

By far the best predictor last year as it was at an over 80% hit rate going into the college bowl season. Sagarin is making gains. Although still getting beat by ESPN's FPI it seems like Sagarin's data is becoming more consistent. 

Vegas's Betting Line: 37-13 (74%)

The Vegas line continues to pace every metric, but ESPN's FPI early in the season. The line was notoriously wrong last year, but so far this season Vegas has been correct more often.

Crimson Tide T-Shirts on Amazon

Summary:

ESPN's FPI continues to lead the field in prediction although we had a very limited data sample from them this week. The Aggregate really had a tough week, but we continue to anticipate it's percentage to get better as more data comes in. Sagarin's system seemed to do exactly that this week posting 70% after a number in the 60's last week. 

Betting Results:

The Aggregate made 12 bets this week and lost six of them. This is not the type of percentage we're hoping for. The week gave us 15 games that the Aggregate predicted a win at a 90% or better chance. 11 of those games you could bet on and we bet on 10. We won only six of our single game bets and as a result lost 22.3% of our total investment. We did make double our money on our underdog pick with Alabama. The Crimson tide were a 68.8% chance to win according to the Aggregate and that bet paid off.

We made two parlay bets. One on all the games with 90% or better odds and one on just the 100% games this week. We lost both bets as Ole Miss and UCF were both predicted to have 100% chances, but fell short. 

Vintage Nebraska T's on Amazon

Single Game Bets:

Alabama over Georgia

Chance to win: 68.8%

Money line: +105

Gain %: 100.0%

Utah over Arizona

Chance to win: 95%

Money line: -395

Gain %: 7.7%

Memphis over MTSU

Chance to win: 96%

Money line: -3200

Gain %: 0.0%

Miami (OH) over Umass

Chance to win: 95%

Money line: -950

Gain %: 9.1%

Ohio State over Michigan State

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -2400

% Change: 0.0%

Ole Miss over Kentucky

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -750

% Change: 7.7% 

Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -900

% Change: 8.7%

Nebraska over Purdue

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -380

% Change: 26.1%

UCF over Colorado

Chance to win: 100% 

Money line: -550

% Change: 7.7%

Bowling Green over Old Dominion

Chance to win: 93.8%

Money line: -355

% Change: 7.3%

Parlays

5 Pick 

Miami over Virginia Tech

Nebraska over Purdue

Ole Miss over Kentucky

UCF over Colorado

Ohio State over Michigan State

Money line: -105

Return on Investment: 13.7%

11 Pick

Miami over Virginia Tech

Nebraska over Purdue

Ole Miss over Kentucky

UCF over Colorado

Ohio State over Michigan State

Army over Temple

Miami (OH) over Umass

USC over Wisconsin

Bowling Green over Old Dominion

Memphis over MTSU

Utah over Arizona

Money line: +401

ROI: 13.3%

Total

100% Single game picks: 3/5

ROI: 33.0 %

90% Single game picks: 2/4

ROI: 46.7%

Upset Game Pick: 1/1

ROI: 100%

Parlay: 0/2

ROI: 27%

Total: 6/12

ROI: 49.3%

Week 5 Betting Guide

   

The Aggregate's week five picks are out and that means it's time for our inaugural betting guide. Here are the games the Aggregate is betting on or at least considering for week five. 

Betting Breakdown:

Upset of the week: 4.8%

Games of the week (9): 70.9% (7.9%/game)

Parlay: 28% (14%/per parlay)

Prime Video Free Trial

Upset of the Week

Our upset of the week will give you a team that is plus money and still favored to win according to the Aggregate median predictor. This week we had four games we considered, but are putting money on Alabama over Georgia. When the game originally came out a money line bet on Alabama was getting +136. This combined with our predictor giving them a 68.8% chance to win is just too good to pass up. 

Pick: Alabama over UGA +136 68.8%CTW

Other upset candidates:

Washington State over Boise State +270 55% CTW

Washington over Rutgers +114 55% CTW

Fresno State over UNLV +164 50%CTW

Crimson Tide T-Shirts on Amazon

Game Picks

Every game that the Aggregate is picking this week is a 90% or higher chance to win. It is abnormal to see this many games with betting lines that the algorithm likes this much. We broke it down into two categories. 100% chance to win meaning the Aggregate thinks there is no chance they lose and 90% chance to win meaning the algorithm thinks their chances are 90% or better to win. So far this season teams are 13-1 (92.9%) with 100% chance to win and 16-2 (88.9%) when the Aggregate sees them as a 90% chance to win.

100% Chance to Win 

Picks:

Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech -1200

Nebraska over Purdue -340

Ole Miss over Kentucky -1350

UCF over Colorado -700

Ohio State over Michigan State -5000

Non Picks: (The Aggregate couldn't get a betting line for these next games, but if you can it would be worth it.)

Syracuse over Holy Cross

Texas over Mississippi State

Florida Atlantic over Wagner

Kennesaw State over UT Martin

90% Chance to Win

Picks:

Memphis over MTSU -1800 (96%)

Utah over Arizona -455 (95%)

Miami (OH) over Umass -750 (95%)

Bowling Green over ODU -360 (93.8%)

Non Picks: (But still over 90%)

USC over Wisconsin -675 (93.8%)

Army over Temple -520 (90%)

Nebraska T-Shirts on Amazon

Parlays

We divided up our parlay pick this week. Splitting the money between a pick on just the 100% games and a pick that includes all 90-100% games. 

100% Parlay-5 games -115

Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech 

Nebraska over Purdue 

Ole Miss over Kentucky 

UCF over Colorado 

Ohio State over Michigan State

90% or Higher Parlay-11 games +360

Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech 

Nebraska over Purdue 

Ole Miss over Kentucky 

UCF over Colorado 

Ohio State over Michigan State 

Memphis over MTSU 

Utah over Arizona 

Miami (OH) over Umass 

Bowling Green over ODU 

USC over Wisconsin 

Army over Temple

Amazon Prime Free Trial

Week 5 College Football Predictions

                           

College football predictions for all of week 5. Still avidly working on getting the points predictor model up and going, but we wanted to give you the basic results predictor for every fbs college football game as we have those up. Note: all betting numbers used were opening lines and may not be current. Please ignore score prediction as it is not ready yet. 

Watch Football on Prime Video Free Trial

Week Five CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score Prediction	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Thursday, September 26th
Army	3-0	40	90.0%	-10		-$520
Temple	1-3	22	10.0%		45.5	$390
Friday, September 27th
Virginia Tech	2-2	#DIV/0!	0.0%			$750
Miami (FL)	4-0	#DIV/0!	100.0%	-8.5	56.5	-$1,200
Washington	3-1	#DIV/0!	55.0%			$114
Rutgers	3-0	#DIV/0!	45.0%	-3	45.5	-$135
Saturday, September 28th
Northern Illinois	2-1	#DIV/0!	35.0%			$280
North Carolina State	2-2	#DIV/0!	65.0%	-10	47.5	-$355
Maryland	3-1	#DIV/0!	40.0%			$215
Indiana	4-0	#DIV/0!	60.0%	-6.5	55.5	-$265
Buffalo	3-1	#DIV/0!	28.0%			$164
Connecticut	2-2	#DIV/0!	72.0%	-2	45.5	-$198
Western Kentucky	3-1	#DIV/0!	12.0%			$340
Boston College	3-1	#DIV/0!	88.0%	-11	56	-$440
Nebraska	3-1	#DIV/0!	100.0%	-10		-$340
Purdue	1-2	#DIV/0!	0.0%		49.5	$270
Kentucky	2-2	#DIV/0!	0.0%			$800
Mississippi	4-0	#DIV/0!	100.0%	-16.5	51.5	-$1,350
Oklahoma State	3-1	#DIV/0!	24.0%			$150
Kansas State	3-1	#DIV/0!	76.0%	-6.5	52.5	-$180
South Florida	2-2	#DIV/0!	36.0%			$235
Tulane	2-2	#DIV/0!	64.0%	-7.5	63	-$290
Navy	3-0	#DIV/0!	62.5%	PK		-$130
Alabama-Birmingham	1-2	#DIV/0!	37.5%	PK	56	$110
Brigham Young	4-0	#DIV/0!	28.0%			$114
Baylor	2-2	#DIV/0!	72.0%	-1	45	-$135
Minnesota	2-2	#DIV/0!	24.0%			$350
Michigan	3-1	#DIV/0!	76.0%	-11	39.5	-$455
Holy Cross	1-3	#DIV/0!	0.0%
Syracuse	2-1	#DIV/0!	100.0%
Ball State	1-2	#DIV/0!	25.0%			$750
James Madison	3-0	#DIV/0!	75.0%	-17	59.5	-$1,200
Texas State	2-1	#DIV/0!	75.0%	-7.5		-$270
Sam Houston	3-1	#DIV/0!	25.0%		56	$220
Eastern Michigan	3-1	#DIV/0!	88.0%	-12.5		-$550
Kent State	0-4	#DIV/0!	12.0%		47.5	$410
Liberty	4-0	#DIV/0!	60.0%	-2.5		-$166
Appalachian State	2-2	#DIV/0!	40.0%		63.5	$140
Georgia Southern	2-2	#DIV/0!	35.0%	-1		-$115
Georgia State	2-1	#DIV/0!	65.0%		57.5	-$105
San Diego State	1-2	#DIV/0!	68.8%			-$105
Central Michigan	2-1	#DIV/0!	31.3%	-1	55	-$115
Louisiana	2-1	#DIV/0!	43.8%			$114
Wake Forest	1-2	#DIV/0!	56.3%	-3	59.5	-$135
Akron	1-3	#DIV/0!	24.0%			$440
Ohio	2-2	#DIV/0!	76.0%	-14.5	46	-$600
Massachusetts	1-3	#DIV/0!	5.0%			$525
Miami (OH)	0-3	#DIV/0!	95.0%	-17.5	47.5	-$750
Colorado	3-1	#DIV/0!	0.0%			$500
Central Florida	3-0	#DIV/0!	100.0%	-11	63.5	-$700
Western Michigan	1-2	#DIV/0!	31.3%			$185
Marshall	1-2	#DIV/0!	68.8%	-6	54	-$225
Texas Christian	2-2	#DIV/0!	28.0%			$110
Kansas	1-3	#DIV/0!	72.0%	-1	59.5	-$130
Oklahoma	3-1	#DIV/0!	64.0%	-3		-$155
Auburn	2-2	#DIV/0!	36.0%		47.5	$130
Fresno State	3-1	#DIV/0!	50.0%			$164
Nevada-Las Vegas	3-0	#DIV/0!	50.0%	-3	52	-$198
Arkansas	3-1	#DIV/0!	44.0%			$190
Texas A&M	3-1	#DIV/0!	56.0%	-11.5	52	-$230
Louisville	3-0	#DIV/0!	30.0%			$170
Notre Dame	3-1	#DIV/0!	70.0%	-10	48	-$205
Wisconsin	2-1	#DIV/0!	6.3%			$490
Southern California	2-1	#DIV/0!	93.8%	-4.5	50.5	-$675
Texas-San Antonio	2-2	#DIV/0!	32.0%			$150
East Carolina	2-2	#DIV/0!	68.0%	-3	54	-$180
North Carolina	3-1	#DIV/0!	32.0%	PK		$136
Duke	4-0	#DIV/0!	68.0%	PK	55.5	-$162
Mississippi State	1-3	#DIV/0!	0.0%
Texas	4-0	#DIV/0!	100.0%	-35.5	61.5
Old Dominion	0-3	#DIV/0!	6.3%			$285
Bowling Green	1-2	#DIV/0!	93.8%	-8	49.5	-$360
Louisiana Tech	1-3	#DIV/0!	52.0%	-1		-$130
Florida International	1-3	#DIV/0!	48.0%		51.5	$110
Wagner	2-2	#DIV/0!	0.0%
Florida Atlantic	1-3	#DIV/0!	100.0%
UT Martin	1-3	#DIV/0!	0.0%
Kennesaw State	0-3	#DIV/0!	100.0%
Stanford	2-1	#DIV/0!	18.8%			$1,000
Clemson	2-1	#DIV/0!	81.3%	-22.5	57	-$1,800
Iowa State	3-0	#DIV/0!	65.0%	-11		-$625
Houston	1-3	#DIV/0!	35.0%		43.5	$455
Charlotte	1-3	#DIV/0!	32.0%			$200
Rice	1-3	#DIV/0!	68.0%	-10.5	46.5	-$245
Louisiana-Monroe	2-1	#DIV/0!	40.0%			$295
Troy	1-3	#DIV/0!	60.0%	-10.5	46	-$375
Tulsa	2-2	#DIV/0!	40.0%			$275
North Texas	3-1	#DIV/0!	60.0%	-7	69	-$345
Ohio State	3-0	#DIV/0!	100.0%	-25		-$5,000
Michigan State	3-1	#DIV/0!	0.0%		49.5	$1,800
Middle Tennessee State	1-3	#DIV/0!	4.0%			$1,000
Memphis	3-1	#DIV/0!	96.0%	-23	61.5	-$1,800
Illinois	4-0	#DIV/0!	30.0%			$900
Penn State	3-0	#DIV/0!	70.0%	-18	47.5	-$1,600
Georgia	3-0	#DIV/0!	31.3%	-4.5		-$162
Alabama	3-0	#DIV/0!	68.8%		49.5	$136
South Alabama	2-2	#DIV/0!	20.0%			$1,300
Louisiana State	3-1	#DIV/0!	80.0%	-22	65.5	-$2,800
Florida State	1-3	#DIV/0!	48.0%			$170
Southern Methodist	3-1	#DIV/0!	52.0%	-4.5	47	-$205
Cincinnati	3-1	#DIV/0!	48.0%			$145
Texas Tech	3-1	#DIV/0!	52.0%	-5	58.5	-$175
New Mexico	0-4	#DIV/0!	72.0%	-3		-$325
New Mexico State	1-3	#DIV/0!	28.0%		58.5	$260
Air Force	1-2	#DIV/0!	80.0%	-1.5		-$130
Wyoming	0-4	#DIV/0!	20.0%		36.5	$110
Washington State	4-0	#DIV/0!	55.0%			$270
Boise State	2-1	#DIV/0!	45.0%	-6	64.5	-$340
Arizona	2-1	#DIV/0!	5.0%			$350
Utah	4-0	#DIV/0!	95.0%	-9.5	51.5	-$455
Oregon	3-0	#DIV/0!	81.3%	-24		-$5,000
UCLA	1-2	#DIV/0!	18.8%		55.5	$1,800