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The Aggregate's week four results are in. We were unfortunately not able to publish our predictions for week 4 of the college football season, but we did make them. We should be able to publish them for this coming week even if we aren't able to mass advertise them yet. Without further ado here are the results.
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Overall:
The Aggregate: 45-18 (71.4%)
The Aggregate's main predictor. If a team has a 50.1% chance to win according to the Aggregate then they fit into this category. The only game the Aggregate didn't predict this week was the Texas Tech vs. California game as they both had a 50.0% chance to win.
ESPN's FPI: 49-14 (77.8%)
Taken off of ESPN's website. It should be noted ESPN had the worst cumulative rate last year, but early this year is leading.
W-L: 37-27 (57.8%)
We track this because it's often suggested that the most important information when predicting games is a teams win loss ratio. This is often not actually the case, but it's good to have the data to back that up. When teams have an equal record than the second decider is home field advantage.
Jeff Sagarin: 42-22 (65.6%)
By far the best predictor last year as it was at an over 80% hit rate going into the college bowl season. It is definitely a surprise to see it as the low man after one week. It will be interesting to see if this changes throughout the season.
Vegas's Betting Line: 39-14 (73.6%)
Vegas had the almost the worst percentage last year, but has a good start this season. It should be noted that there are less games here because when we pulled the numbers there were still certain games the Vegas sites we follow had not posted a line for.
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Summary:
ESPN's FPI has been the best indicator through this week. It will be interesting to see if that continues as it finished both behind the Aggregate and Jeff Sagarin's ratings last year. It is at least possible to think that ESPN's metric is better with limited data than the Aggregate or Jeff Sagarin's as last years data was more from the back half of the season then the front.
Also Vegas's betting line did very well. Better than the Aggregate which is exactly opposite of what our goal is here. The fact that the Aggregate out performed the Vegas betting line was one of the reasons we decided to actually invest in this betting scheme this college football season. However, because of the way we are betting we still made out more details on that below.
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Betting Results:
The Aggregate made 11 bets for the fourth week of college football. We put money on 10 games in which the Aggregate had predicted at least an 80% chance or better for a team to win. We then more then doubled the money in three games in which the Aggregate saw a 90% chance or better. We also made one parlay bet that included four money line bets on teams in which the Aggregate saw one team as a 90% chance or better.
We won 8 out of the 10 single game bets and won the parlay bet. As a result we came out ahead and made about a 6.5% gain on our money for the week. Unfortunately because of a dismal week 0 we are still down about 10% on our total money.
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Single Game Bets:
LSU over UCLA
Chance to win: 96.7%
Money line: -2100
Gain %: 2.9%
Duke over MTSU
Chance to win: 91.7%
Money line: -600
Gain %: 15.2%
Miami (FL) over USF
Chance to win: 100%
Money line: -850
Gain %: 11.8%
Mizzou over Vandy
Chance to win: 88.9%
Money line: -1200
Gain %: 7.1%
Sam Houston over New Mexico
Chance to win: 88.9%
Money line: -850
% Change: 7.1%
Kansas State over Brigham Young
Chance to win: 88.9%
Money line: -225
% Change: 4.8% (total)
Clemson over NC State
Chance to win: 88%
Money line: -1200
% Change: 7.1%
Memphis over Navy
Chance to win: 88%
Money line: -355
% Change: 4.8% (total)
Kentucky over Ohio
Chance to win: 86.1%
Money line: -1350
% Change: 7.1%
Fresno State over New Mexico
Chance to win: 86.1%
Money line: -600
% Change: 14.3%
Parlay
Miami over USF
Duke over MTSU
LSU over UCLA
Indiana over Charlotte (100%)
Money line: -263
Return on Investment: 38.3%
Total
90% Single game picks: 3/3
ROI: 8.9%
Remaining Single game picks: 5/7
ROI: 10.2%
Parlay: 1/1
ROI: 38.3%
Total: 9/11
ROI: 6.6%
