Bowl Week 1 Predictions

 

Predictions for Bowl week 1. The Aggregate likes most of  the favorites in week one of the college bowl season. It does predict one victory for a non power 4 team over a power 4 team, but see's another non-power 4 team, who spent a good deal of the year ranked in the top 25, as a loser to a 6-6 power 4 squad. It also doesn't see any of the CFP games as being particularly close. 

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The Aggregate is picking the Memphis Tigers to beat West Virginia on Tuesday in the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl. The Mountaineers were originally the favorites in this game as shown below, but that is no longer the case. DraftKings now has Memphis -190. West Virginia was the better team this season, but they are hemorrhaging after losing their head coach. In addition to their head coach the team will not have 11 of their players or their former defensive coordinator. The Aggregate has them at about 60% of their regular season strength. 

The Aggregate is picking #24 UNLV to lose to the Cal Golden Bears. The Aggregate is predicting that the loss of head coach Barry Odom will be too much for the Runnin Rebels. This all despite Cal's loss of their starting quarterback, Fernando Mendoza who is in the transfer portal. 

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The Aggregate isn't predicting any of the CFP games to be closer than six points and it's giving the all the favorites at least a 63% chance of winning their game. Texas is the biggest favorite with a 76.5% chance to win and Penn State is the weakest favorite at just a 63.3% chance to win. e. 

Saturday, December 14th
Army	11-1	36	59.0%	-6.5		-245
Navy	8-3	30	41.0%	+6.5	39	+200
Western Michigan	6-6	28	26.6%	+10.0		+300
South Alabama	6-6	40	73.4%	-10.0	59.5	-380
Tuesday, December 17th
Memphis	10-2	38	59.8%	+1.5		-102
West Virginia	6-6	31	40.2%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Wednesday, December 18th
Western Kentucky	8-5	31	36.3%	+3.0		+124
James Madison	8-4	39	63.7%	-3.0	53.5	-148
California	6-6	31	54.9%	-1.5		-120
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-3	29	45.1%	+1.5	51.5	even
Thursday, December 19th
Georgia Southern	8-4	31	74.0%	-4.5		-180
Sam Houston	9-3	21	26.0%	+4.5	46.5	+150
Friday, December 20th
Ohio	10-3	36	54.6%	-2.5		-130
Jacksonville State	9-4	35	45.4%	+2.5	52	+110
Tulane	9-4	31	37.9%	+9.5		+260
Florida	7-5	36	62.1%	-9.5	49.5	-325
Indiana	11-1	31	30.2%	+8.5		+245
Notre Dame	11-1	42	69.8%	-8.5	51.5	-305
Saturday, December 21st
Southern Methodist	11-2	24	36.7%	+8.0		+240
Penn State	11-2	34	63.3%	-8.0	52.5	-298
Clemson	10-3	20	23.5%	+10.5		+310
Texas	11-2	35	76.5%	-10.5	53.5	-395
Tennessee	10-2	31	34.9%	+7.0		+195
Ohio State	10-2	37	65.1%	-7.0	46.5	-238

Sunbelt Coaches Aggregate Adjusted Win Percentage

                                                                   

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

For the Sunbelt this year Shawn Clark from App State has the highest adjusted winning percentage with 64.3%. Clark is one of the longest tenured coaches in the Sunbelt going into his 5th year there. 

Note: Neither Bob Chesney or Dell McGee have an FBS win or loss which is why they're fields are incomplete. 

Sun Belt Coaches	Team	W	L	W Pct
Bob Chesney	JMU	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Dell McGee	GA State	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Shawn Clark	App State	29.8	16.5	64.3%
Tim Beck	Coastal Carolina	4.0	2.5	61.5%
G.J. Kinne	Texas State	4.0	2.5	61.5%
Major Applewhite	S. Alabama	5.8	3.9	59.7%
Charles Huff	Marshall	18.5	14.0	56.9%
Clay Helton	GSU	37.1	29.3	55.9%
Butch Jones	Ark St	61.5	50.0	55.2%
Bryant Vincent	ULM	1.8	1.5	53.8%
Michael Desormeaux	Louisiana	9.3	10.5	46.8%
Ricky Rahne	Old Dominion	12.0	19.5	38.1%
Will Hall	Southern Miss	11.5	19.5	37.1%
Gerad Parker	Troy	0.0	0.8	0.0%

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Year End Rankings for the Sunbelt Conference

 The end of the year rankings are out for the Sunbelt Conference. James Madison and Troy kept their positions in 1st and 2nd despite losing their bowl games. South Alabama moved up to 3rd after their impressive showing against Eastern Michigan. App State dropped one despite their win over Miami (OH). Texas State gained one spot after their win against Rice. Louisiana dropped one after a loss to Jacksonville State. Georgia State came up four spots after impressively beating Utah State. Georgia Southern dopped one after their loss. Finally Marshall dropped 3 spots after a disappointing loss to UTSA. 

Aggregate Prediction Decemeber 23rd Bowls

 The Aggregate predicts two upsets and is split on one game for this weekend. So far the Aggregate is 6-1 in bowl games. 

The Aggregate sees Duke as the favorite against Troy. The Blue Devils have lost their coach for the game and that is likely why Vegas is favoring Troy by 7.5. It's important to remember the Aggregate doesn't factor in things like injuries, players sitting out or coaches leaving. It sees Duke as the favorite based on the games they've played this year. Do you think the Blue Devils can pull it off? 

The Aggregates second upset pick is Northern Illinois over Arkansas State. The Huskies rate as a one point favorite according to the Aggregate algorithm while Vegas sees it the other way. Either way the Aggregate sees it as an extremely close match up giving the Huskies just a .6 percent better chance of winning than the Red Wolves. Do you think the Huskies pull the upset?

The Aggregate is split on a decision between Utah State and Georgia State. This happens because of how each measurement is determined. The predicted score is determined by the total of each value from each teams games in the season. The Chance to Win is determined by using each teams values for each game and comparing them to each other. For example in this determination the values for each team were compared 169 times and Georgia State had the higher value in 85 of those comparisons leading to a 50.3 percent chance to win. Either way the margin is very thin. Who do you like in this game?

What other game stands out to you? Do you disagree with the Aggregate?