CFB Bowl Week 3 Picks

 College football bowl picks for week 3. The Aggregate is picking only one upset in the CFP. It also likes Ohio State to get revenge against the Oregon Ducks. Nor is it giving the Carson Beck-less Georgia Bulldogs much of a chance to beat Notre Dame. 

The Aggregate likes Notre Dame to beat the Georgia Bulldogs today. The data tells us the game should not be that close predicting a 36-24 victory. Certainly the loss of Carson Beck plays a factor in the Aggregate's prediction, but even if Beck was not injured the Georgia's chances would still just be 33%. In fact the data right now points to Notre Dame being the best team in the country. The Irish  have had the 17th toughest SOS in the country and are averaging beating their opponents by 29 points a game.

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The Aggregate favors Ohio State in their rematch with the Ducks, but it should be pointed out they also favored them in their game early in the season. The Buckeyes will have the advantage this time of not having to play at Oregon as the game is in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks actually have the better SOS, 19th-26th, but the Buckeyes are beating those opponents by an average of 7 points more per game. 

Bowl Week 3 CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Iowa	8-4	35	60.9%	+2.5		+105
Missouri	9-3	30	39.1%	-2.5	43.5	-125
Alabama	9-3	34	72.8%	-11.5		-395
Michigan	7-5	21	27.2%	+11.5	43.5	+310
Louisville	8-4	36	62.7%	-5.0		-192
Washington	6-6	30	37.3%	+5.0	50.5	+160
South Carolina	9-3	31	54.4%	-11.5		-425
Illinois	9-3	30	45.6%	+11.5	47.5	+330
Baylor	8-4	37	49.1%	+3.0		+130
Louisiana State	8-4	36	50.9%	-3.0	60.5	-155
Penn State	12-2	36	78.6%	-10.5		-355
Boise State	12-1	21	21.4%	+10.5	52.5	+280
Texas	12-2	34	72.9%	-13.5		-550
Arizona State	11-2	21	27.1%	+13.5	52.5	+410
Ohio State	11-2	37	60.2%	-1.0		-115
Oregon	13-0	34	39.8%	+1.0	53.5	-105
Notre Dame	12-1	36	70.9%	+1.0		-105
Georgia	11-2	24	29.1%	-1.0	44.5	-115
Duke	9-3	20	10.1%	+14.0		+410
Mississippi	9-3	38	89.9%	-14.0	53.5	-550
North Texas	6-6	27	23.7%	+7.5		+250
Texas State	7-5	44	76.3%	-7.5	66.5	-310
Minnesota	7-5	30	66.9%	-4.5		-175
Virginia Tech	6-6	24	33.1%	+4.5	42.5	+145
Buffalo	8-4	37	49.7%	+3.5		+136
Liberty	8-4	39	50.3%	-3.5	51.5	-162

Best Coaching Jobs in 2023 (Point Differential Above Expected)

7/22/24 Correction: There was an error on the formula page when I first calculated it. I’ve fixed it and it changed the results slightly. Who did the best coaching jobs in 2023? This measurement might give us an idea. The was the Aggregate metric works we can come up with a rating of points above expected. This statistic is measuring how well a team actually did as compared to what they were supposed to do before the season.  In this case each measurement shows the difference in point differential for each team than what was expected. Do not expect to see Michigan on this list. The Wolverines were the Aggregates preseason #3 and they finished #1 and yet they finished  with a -0.5 points worse than expected rating, meaning that their differential was just 0.5 points off what the Aggregate expected. That made them 42nd on the list.

#1 Jedd Fisch-Arizona

Point Differential Above Expected: +16.9

Record in '22: 5-7 (3-6)

Record in '23: 10-3 (7-2)

Fisch finally achieved success in his 3rd year in Tuscon. The Wildcats went from the back of the pack in the Pac 12 to the top in what ended up being the Aggregates 2nd best rated conference. Fisch took his success and headed to Washington for the 2024 season.

#2 G.J. Kinne-Texas State

Point Differential Above Expected: +15.4

Record in '22: 4-8 (2-6)

Record in '23: 8-5 (4-4)

Kinne came from FCS school Incarnate Word and had success in his very first season. Some of the highlights include beating Baylor and S#outh Alabama in a bowl game. Don't let the 4-4 Sunbelt record fool you as the Aggregate had the Sunbelt as the best group of five conference. Kinne returned to the Bobcats for the 2024 season.

#3  Rich Rodriguez-Jacksonville State

Point Differential Above Expected: +15.3

Record in '22: 9-2 (5-0) (All games against FCS opponents)

Record in '23: 9-4 (6-2)

Rodriguez helped guide Jacksonville State through their transition to the FBS and the Gamecocks had no issues. The Gamecocks won their first bowl game in their first year in the FBS. No team has ever done that before. Rodriguez returned to Jacksonville State for the 2024 season.

#4 Jamey Chadwell-Liberty

Point Differential Above Expected: +14.2

Record in '22: 8-5 

Record in '23: 13-1 (8-0)

Chadwell moved took the reins from Hugh Freeze and the Flames have soared. Liberty won Conference USA last year their first year in the conference. Liberty had one of the easiest schedules in the nation, but did even better than expected against those opponents. Chadwell returned to the Flames for the 2024 season.

#5 Barry Odom-UNLV

Point Differential Above Expected: +14.0

Record in '22: 5-7 (3-5)

Record in '23: 9-5 (6-3)

Odom changed the perspective in UNLV and made them a contender in his very first year. The Rebels played in the Mountain West Championship and went to a bowl game for the first time since 2013. Odom returned to UNLV for the 2024 season.

#6 Deion Sanders-Colorado +11.4

#7 Brent Brennan-San Jose State (Now at Arizona) +10.7

#8 Alex Golesh-USF +10.5

#9 Ricky Rahne-Old Dominion +9.7

#10 Scott Loeffler-Bowling Green +9.3

Rest of the List:

11	Western Michigan	8.0
12	Georgia Tech	8.0
13	Rice	7.9
14	VT	7.3
15	Utah State	7.0
16	Arkansas State	6.7
17	New Mexico State	6.5
18	Miami (OH)	6.4
19	Oregon	4.6
20	SMU	4.2
21	Colorado State	3.9
22	Rutgers	3.8
23	New Mexico	3.7
24	Tulsa	3.6
25	Northwestern	3.5
26	Georgia State	3.5
27	Wyoming	3.0
28	Coastal Carolina	2.9
29	Hawaii	2.6
30	Stanford	2.5
31	James Madison	2.1
32	Virginia	2.0
33	Georgia Southern	1.7
34	Louisville	1.4
35	NIU	1.4
36	Sam Houston	1.3
37	Purdue	0.9
38	Michigan	0.3
39	ULM	0.2
40	Missouri	0.1
41	Indiana	0.1
42	Charlotte	-0.2
43	West Virginia	-0.3
44	Oklahoma	-0.4
45	UMass	-0.7
46	Washington State	-0.7
47	Troy	-0.8
48	Notre Dame	-0.9
49	Kansas State	-1.2
50	UAB	-1.5
51	California	-2.5
52	Georgia	-2.7
53	Texas	-2.7
54	Boston College	-3.0
55	East Carolina	-3.1
56	Ball State	-3.1
57	Washington	-3.3
58	LSU	-3.7
59	Penn State	-3.8
60	Arizona State	-4.2
61	Maryland	-4.3
62	Alabama	-4.3
63	North Texas	-4.4
64	Kansas	-4.4
65	Iowa State	-4.8
66	Ohio State	-4.8
67	Appalachian State	-5.1
68	Louisiana	-5.2
69	Central Michigan	-5.4
70	Syracuse	-5.5
71	NC State	-5.5
72	Army	-5.5
73	Air Force	-5.6
74	Louisiana Tech	-5.9
75	Houston	-5.9
76	Ole Miss	-6.0
77	Vanderbilt	-6.5
78	Kent State	-6.8
79	Nevada	-6.8
80	Florida Atlantic	-6.9
81	Boise State	-7.1
82	Ohio	-7.2
83	Cincinnati	-7.3
84	Miami (FL)	-7.5
85	Memphis	-7.6
86	FIU	-7.8
87	Duke	-7.9
88	UCF	-7.9
89	Wake Forest	-8.0
90	Navy	-8.0
91	Akron	-8.1
92	Nebraska	-8.1
93	MTSU	-8.2
94	Oklahoma State	-8.4
95	Tulane	-8.8
96	Fresno State	-8.9
97	Buffalo	-8.9
98	Conneticut	-9.2
99	Florida State	-9.3
100	Toledo	-9.6
101	UTSA	-9.6
102	Michigan State	-9.7
103	Oregon State	-9.7
104	Eastern Michigan	-9.7
105	Texas A&M	-10.4
106	BYU	-10.4
107	South Alabama	-10.5
108	Tennesse	-10.7
109	UNC	-11.3
110	Temple	-11.4
111	Auburn	-11.6
112	Kentucky	-11.6
113	Texas Tech	-11.9
114	UCLA	-11.9
115	Clemson	-12.0
116	South Carolina	-12.1
117	Florida	-12.7
118	WKU	-12.8
119	TCU	-13.5
120	Southern Miss	-14.4
121	USC	-14.5
122	UTEP	-15.8
123	Wisconsin	-16.2
124	Arkansas	-16.4
125	Utah	-16.7
126	San Diego State	-16.9
127	Minnesota	-17.2
128	Marshall	-17.5
129	Mississippi State	-18.7
130	Baylor	-19.6
131	Illinois	-19.9
132	Iowa	-19.9
133	Pittsburgh	-21.1