Michigan and Washington Set to Square Off in National Championship
By: John Smith
As the college football season comes to a crescendo, all eyes are on the impending clash between the #1 Michigan Wolverines and the #2 Washington Huskies in the national championship. Both teams boast immaculate records, and their journey to this pinnacle promises an electrifying showdown on the grandest stage of college football.
Team Records:
Michigan: 14-0
Washington: 14-0
These two undefeated juggernauts have navigated a challenging season to earn the right to vie for the national championship, setting the stage for an epic battle.
Points Per Game (PPG):
Michigan: 36
Washington: 37.6
Michigan and Washington feature high-scoring offenses. Although the Huskies boast an explosive offense, Michigan averages just 1.6 less points per game.
Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):
Michigan: 10.2
Washington: 24.1
Michigan's defense has been outstanding and helped them immensely in their semi-final game with Bama. That defense has allowed only 10.2 points per game this season. Washington faces the challenge of breaking through this defensive fortress to put points on the board while also trying to limit the physical Michigan offense.
Best Wins:
Michigan: 49-0 victory at #77 Michigan State
Washington: 56-19 triumph vs. #47 Boise State
According to the Aggregate each teams best win came early in the season. For Michigan it was an absolute drubbing of rival Michigan State at Michigan State. The Wolverines gave no hope to the Spartans who the Aggregate rated as the 77th best team at that time.
For Washington their best game came against Boise State. The Huskies handed the Broncos their worst loss of the season 56-19. Boise was ranked as the 47th best team at the time and went on to win the Mountain West conference.
Worst Games:
Michigan: 31-6 victory vs. #120 Bowling Green
Washington: 15-7 win vs. #105 Arizona State
Despite their unblemished records, both teams have faced challenges in narrower victories against lower-ranked opponents.
For the Wolverines their worst game performance as rated by the Aggregate came against Bowling Green. Michigan still won 31-6, but the Aggregate was unimpressed with only a 25 point margin against the 120th best team in the country while playing in the confines of the Big House.
For Washington their worst game was late in the season and it inspired many pundits including the Aggregate to pick against them in the Pac 12 championship and the CFP semi-final. The Huskies beat 105th ranked Arizona State 15-8. Somehow the Sun Devils were able to keep the potent Washington offense to just 15 points.
Aggregate Ratings:
Michigan: 52.3
Washington: 44.7
Michigan enters the championship with a higher aggregate rating, but Washington has defied the Aggregate in it’s last two games. The Huskies are known for playing one score games and that has kept their Aggregate rating low, but their also known for winning those games.
Predicted Score:
Michigan: 30
Washington: 23
The Aggregate likes Michigan to win by 7. It believes the Wolverines defense will keep Washington in check just enough to win.
Vegas Odds:
Michigan: -4.5 (Spread), -195 (Moneyline), Over/Under 55.5
Washington: +4.5 (Spread), +165 (Moneyline), Over/Under 55.5
The Vegas odds suggest a closely contested matchup, with Michigan favored by a narrow margin. The Aggregate likes Michigan to win and cover with it’s own line being for Michigan at -7.6. However, the Aggregate is 93-106-3 on the season at accurately choosing the right spread team.
The moneyline is set at -195 for Michigan and the Aggregate really likes that bet. Not only does it see Michigan as the favorite, but it thinks the Wolverines have a 62.9 % chance to win. Unlike the spread the Aggregate has a proven track record for picking the moneyline correct at 72.8% of the time. It is 158-59 in moneyline bets this season.
The Over/Under indicates expectations for a moderately high-scoring affair. The Aggregate likes the under in this case, but again it does not have a good track record in picking over/under. In its current prediction model it is 50-54.
Consistency and Expectation:
Michigan Consistency Rating: 45.9, Rank: 44th
Washington Consistency Rating: 54.1, Rank: 78th
The Aggregate’s consistency rating is based on how far apart a teams best and worst performances were during the season. The less far the more consistent that team has been and the more likely that team is to reasonably deliver close to its expectation. This metric is not an evaluation of how good a team is. A consistently good team will score well in this measure, but so will a consistently bad team. Teams that are inconsistent may have more good games, but are more likely to also have some clunkers.
Michigan’s consistency ranking this year is 44th which puts them in the top third of college teams. Washington’s ranking is 78th which puts them in the middle third of college teams.
Performance Against Preseason Expectation:
Michigan: -0.5
Washington: -3.2
The performance against preseason expectations metric is derived based on a teams rating at the beginning of the season Both teams in this case have been very close to their preseason expectations with Washington being a little lower in rating because of their propensity to play close games.
The Cheating Angle:
Michigan faced adversity this year with a suspension for cheating, but the incident has served to galvanize the team. The Wolverines have used this setback as motivation, turning a negative situation into a unifying force that has propelled them to the national championship. Most people wouldn’t see it this was, but the team has seemingly turned people’s outcry about the cheating into an us vs. the world kind of scenario even wearing Free Harbaugh shirts when their head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended for three games.
Physicality and Awards:
Michigan is noted for its physical style of play, a characteristic that has been a key component of their success. It will be interesting to see how Washington handles the Wolverines physicality on both offense and defense. The Huskies are not known for their toughness, but their offensive line has been outstanding this year. In fact Washington's offensive line was recognized with the prestigious Joe Moore Award for being the best offensive line in the country, underscoring their prowess in the trenches.
As the Wolverines and Huskies prepare to clash in the national championship, fans can expect a thrilling contest between two powerhouse programs. This will be the last national championship played where only four teams were invited to the tournament. Will the Wolverines dominate the line and prove too much for the Huskies or will Washington’s passing attack wreak havoc and allow them to pull away? What do you think?
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