CFB Bowl Week 3 Picks

 College football bowl picks for week 3. The Aggregate is picking only one upset in the CFP. It also likes Ohio State to get revenge against the Oregon Ducks. Nor is it giving the Carson Beck-less Georgia Bulldogs much of a chance to beat Notre Dame. 

The Aggregate likes Notre Dame to beat the Georgia Bulldogs today. The data tells us the game should not be that close predicting a 36-24 victory. Certainly the loss of Carson Beck plays a factor in the Aggregate's prediction, but even if Beck was not injured the Georgia's chances would still just be 33%. In fact the data right now points to Notre Dame being the best team in the country. The Irish  have had the 17th toughest SOS in the country and are averaging beating their opponents by 29 points a game.

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The Aggregate favors Ohio State in their rematch with the Ducks, but it should be pointed out they also favored them in their game early in the season. The Buckeyes will have the advantage this time of not having to play at Oregon as the game is in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks actually have the better SOS, 19th-26th, but the Buckeyes are beating those opponents by an average of 7 points more per game. 

Bowl Week 3 CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Iowa	8-4	35	60.9%	+2.5		+105
Missouri	9-3	30	39.1%	-2.5	43.5	-125
Alabama	9-3	34	72.8%	-11.5		-395
Michigan	7-5	21	27.2%	+11.5	43.5	+310
Louisville	8-4	36	62.7%	-5.0		-192
Washington	6-6	30	37.3%	+5.0	50.5	+160
South Carolina	9-3	31	54.4%	-11.5		-425
Illinois	9-3	30	45.6%	+11.5	47.5	+330
Baylor	8-4	37	49.1%	+3.0		+130
Louisiana State	8-4	36	50.9%	-3.0	60.5	-155
Penn State	12-2	36	78.6%	-10.5		-355
Boise State	12-1	21	21.4%	+10.5	52.5	+280
Texas	12-2	34	72.9%	-13.5		-550
Arizona State	11-2	21	27.1%	+13.5	52.5	+410
Ohio State	11-2	37	60.2%	-1.0		-115
Oregon	13-0	34	39.8%	+1.0	53.5	-105
Notre Dame	12-1	36	70.9%	+1.0		-105
Georgia	11-2	24	29.1%	-1.0	44.5	-115
Duke	9-3	20	10.1%	+14.0		+410
Mississippi	9-3	38	89.9%	-14.0	53.5	-550
North Texas	6-6	27	23.7%	+7.5		+250
Texas State	7-5	44	76.3%	-7.5	66.5	-310
Minnesota	7-5	30	66.9%	-4.5		-175
Virginia Tech	6-6	24	33.1%	+4.5	42.5	+145
Buffalo	8-4	37	49.7%	+3.5		+136
Liberty	8-4	39	50.3%	-3.5	51.5	-162

Top 25 Rankings Week 6

 

Top 25 rankings for week six from the Aggregate. There is a new number one team. Tennessee takes the top spot from Texas after the Longhorns didn't play as well as expected against Mississippi State. The Volunteers have been at the top spot earlier this season and now have gotten back there again.

Biggest climber this week was UNLV. The Aggregate hadn't really favored the Rebels this season because despite having a 3-0 start they had a poorer strength of schedule, but Saturday's big victory against Fresno State changed that. UNLV won by 45 in a game in which the Aggregate saw it as a pick'em.

Our biggest dropper this week was the Utah Utes. The Utes struggled without Cam Rising and lost to Arizona. The Aggregate responded by dropping them 9 spots. All the way down to #23. 

Probably the most surprising team on the list is the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Tech was off this week and is only 3-2 on the season, but still ranks 23rd in the Aggregate's index. Most likely it was Georgia Tech's week 0 victory that has kept them up here although in hindsight Florida State looks like they're not a very good team. The Yellow Jackets have been in all their losses though so the data hasn't dropped them off the map completely. 

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Tennessee	4-0	+1	55.7	4
2	Texas	5-0	-1	54.6	2
3	Alabama	4-0	+1	52.6	1
4	Ohio State	4-0	+2	52.4	3
5	Miami (FL)	5-0	-2	50.5	8
6	Mississippi	4-1	-1	47.3	12
7	Notre Dame	4-1	0	46.6	14
8	Georgia	3-1	+3	44.0	5
9	Penn State	4-0	-1	43.8	7
10	Oregon	4-0	-1	43.3	6
11	Southern California	3-1	-1	42.6	11
12	Clemson	3-1	0	42.3	15
13	Louisville	3-1	0	41.5	22
14	Oklahoma	4-1	+2	38.6	19
15	Iowa	3-1	+2	38.2	30
16	Louisiana State	4-1	+5	37.1	13
17	Texas A&M	4-1	+1	36.6	T-25
18	Michigan	4-1	+2	35.5	10
19	Georgia Tech	3-2	+3	35.3	NR
20	South Carolina	3-1	+4	35.0	33
21	Indiana	5-0	+6	35.0	23
22	Nevada-Las Vegas	4-0	+31	34.6	T-25
23	Utah	4-1	-9	34.5	18
24	Kentucky	3-2	+15	34.4	35
25	Iowa State	4-0	+4	34.3	33
133	Kent State	0-5	0	-12.1	#N/A