As the college football season reaches its pinnacle, fans are gearing up for an epic clash between the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide and the #1 Michigan Wolverines in the upcoming playoff semifinal. Both teams have had stellar seasons, boasting impressive records and statistical prowess that set the stage for a thrilling matchup.
Let's break down the numbers to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team heading into this highly anticipated showdown.
Team Records:
Alabama: 12-1
Michigan: 13-0
The Wolverines enter the matchup undefeated, showcasing their dominance throughout the season. However, the Crimson Tide, with just one loss, are determined to prove that they are a force to be reckoned with.
Points Per Game (PPG):
Alabama: 35.1
Michigan: 36.7
Both teams possess high-powered offenses, capable of putting up points in bunches. Michigan's slightly higher average indicates their explosive scoring ability, but Alabama's offense is certainly no slouch as Jalen Milroe found his groove late in the season.
Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):
Alabama: 18.4
Michigan: 9.5
Michigan's defense has been exceptional, holding opponents to an average of just 9.5 points per game. Although in fairness that was against a relatively weak Big 10 this year. Alabama, while solid defensively, will face a tough challenge in breaking down the Wolverines' stout defense.
Best Wins:
Alabama: 24-10 victory vs. #4 Ole Miss
Michigan: 49-0 blowout at #77 Michigan State
Both teams have notable victories against ranked opponents. Alabama’s came against Ole Miss whom the Aggregate had ranked as the 4th best team in the nation in that time. Michigan's dominant win over Michigan State was the Aggregates highest rated game for the Wolverines. Although not against a top rated team Michigan’s win over a rival at said rivals place was impressive.
Worst Games:
Alabama: 17-3 victory at #119 USF
Michigan: 31-6 win vs. #120 Bowling Green
While both teams have enjoyed success, their narrow victories over lower-ranked opponents highlight potential areas of vulnerability. It should be pointed out both of these games happened early in the season. For Alabama they had a different starting quarterback in their game.
Aggregate Ratings:
Alabama: 47.8
Michigan: 52.6
Michigan holds a slight advantage in the aggregate rating making them a 4.8 point Aggregate favorite
Predicted Score:
Alabama: 23
Michigan: 28
The Aggregate predicts a final score of 28-23 in Michigan’s favor. The Predicted score is based on each team's rating, points per game and points allowed per game.
Vegas Odds:
Alabama: +1.5 (Spread), +105 (Moneyline), Over/Under 44.5
Michigan: -1.5 (Spread), -125 (Moneyline), Over/Under 44.5
Vegas odds suggest a tight matchup, with both teams having a legitimate shot at victory. The Over/Under indicates a potentially low-scoring affair. The Aggregate predicts that the score will hit the over at 51.
Wins in 196 matchups: Alabama 75, Michigan 1, 120 ties
While the historical data heavily favors Alabama, this singular meeting promises to be a pivotal moment in their head-to-head record.
Chance to Win:
Alabama: 38.5%
Michigan: 61.5%
When calculating chance to win, the Aggregate simulates 196 matchups between the two teams. In those games Alabama won 75 times Michigan won 120 times and there was 1 tie. In the Aggregates opinion Michigan has a 61.5% chance to win the game.
Consistency and Expectation:
Alabama Consistency Rating: 39.1, Rank: 19th
Michigan Consistency Rating: 45.9, Rank: 46th
Alabama has been the more consistent team during this season. The consistency rating is calculated by comparing a team’s highest and lowest rating during the year.
Performance Against Preseason Expectation:
Alabama: -4.8
Michigan: -0.5
Both teams have not met preseason expectations, but the Aggregate sees the Crimson Tide as the team that is the furthest from their preseason expectation. In fairness neither have fallen far. Alabama who has the biggest drop was preseason ranked 4th and the Aggregate currently has them 6th in the country.
Predicted High Score:
Alabama: 31
Michigan: 35
The predicted high score is based on each team’s rating, their points per game in wins and their points allowed in losses.
As the stage is set for this colossal clash, college football enthusiasts can anticipate a matchup of titanic proportions, with two powerhouse programs vying for a spot in the national championship. Alabama's experience and Michigan's undefeated record add layers of intrigue, making this semifinal a must-watch event that could go down as an instant classic.
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