Final Conference Rankings

 The end of year rankings for the conferences in college football. It may surprise many, but the data tells us that the SEC is still the best conference in college football. The data also is telling us that the Big 12 was better than the ACC this year. The Mountain West capitalized on a rebuilding year from the Sunbelt to rank as the best group of five conference this season.

According to the data we use to analyze games and predict future outcomes the SEC is the best conference in college football this year. That may surprise many as the Big 10 had a very good bowl season and with Ohio State winning the national championship. Here is a team by team breakdown of the two conferences. 

Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank	Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank
Texas	13-3	48.6	3	Ohio State	14-2	53.3	1
Mississippi	10-3	48.3	4	Penn State	13-3	45.9	5
Alabama	9-4	45.7	6	Oregon	13-1	45.1	7
Tennessee	10-3	44.7	8	Indiana	11-2	44.5	9
Georgia	11-3	44.1	10	Iowa	8-5	37.6	17
Florida	8-5	37.9	15	Southern California	7-6	37.2	20
South Carolina	9-4	37.9	16	Michigan	8-5	36.9	21
Louisiana State	9-4	37.6	18	Minnesota	8-5	36.4	22
Texas A&M	8-5	36.3	23	Illinois	10-3	33.1	30
Arkansas	7-6	32.6	32	Nebraska	7-6	31.1	37
Auburn	5-7	32.0	33	Washington	6-7	30.3	40
Oklahoma	6-7	31.6	35	Wisconsin	5-7	29.8	45
Missouri	10-3	31.2	36	Rutgers	7-6	27.9	48
Vanderbilt	7-6	30.3	41	UCLA	5-7	24.5	59
Kentucky	4-8	23.9	62	Maryland	4-8	22.1	64
Mississippi State	2-10	20.9	68	Northwestern	4-8	20.5	70
				Michigan State	5-7	20.4	71
				Purdue	1-11	7.1	115
Average		36.5	26			32.4	38

As you can see the data tells us that Ohio State was better than any SEC team, but the trend than quickly reverses itself. Many teams are very close compared to each other, but the glaring differences are Georgia compared to Iowa, 44.1-37.6 and Vanderbilt compared to UCLA, 30.3-24.5. Then the biggest difference is Purdue sitting at 115th is dragging the Big 10's averages down. 

The algorithm also see's the Big 12 as a better conference this year than the ACC. Two ACC teams got into the college football playoff, but many argued that it should have been the Big 12 that got two in. The data tells us that it should have been two ACC teams in, but it wasn't the two that ended up there. Even with that the Aggregate see's the Big 12 as the better conference overall. Here is the comparison of the two. 

Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank	Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank
Miami (FL)	10-3	43.4	11	Arizona State	11-3	39.0	13
Louisville	9-4	39.4	12	Brigham Young	11-2	35.9	24
Clemson	10-4	38.1	14	Colorado	9-4	35.5	25
Southern Methodist	11-3	37.4	19	Iowa State	11-3	33.7	27
Virginia Tech	6-7	34.5	26	Kansas State	9-4	33.7	28
Georgia Tech	7-6	33.3	29	Baylor	8-5	32.6	31
Boston College	7-6	30.7	39	Kansas	5-7	31.9	34
Syracuse	10-3	27.6	49	Texas Christian	9-4	30.2	43
Duke	9-4	27.4	50	Utah	5-7	28.8	46
Pittsburgh	7-6	27.2	52	Central Florida	4-8	28.7	47
Virginia	5-7	24.3	60	Texas Tech	8-5	27.3	51
North Carolina State	6-7	22.4	63	West Virginia	6-7	26.2	55
North Carolina	6-7	21.9	65	Cincinnati	5-7	24.7	56
Wake Forest	4-8	18.0	80	Oklahoma State	3-9	20.0	72
Stanford	3-9	17.6	83	Houston	4-8	19.2	74
Florida State	2-10	14.9	89	Arizona	4-8	14.8	90
Average		28.6	46			28.9	45

As you can see the top 6 in the ACC were better than the Big 12, but the next 9 teams were better in the Big 12. This middle to end made the Big 12 a slightly better conference overall than the ACC. This is one place that shows why this kind of data is important. Often public perception about a conference is driven by the top teams, but that never gives a whole view. In this case the top of the ACC was clearly better than the top of the Big 12, but when you look at the entire conference you see that the Big 12 was actually the better conference overall. 

Finally the data tells us that the Mountain West was the best group of five conference this season. Although none of it's teams made our top 25 both Boise and UNLV made our top 50. It was the only group of five conference to do that. They also had six teams in our top 100.

CFB Top Conferences
Rank	Conference	Average Rating	Average Rank	Teams in the Top 25
1	SEC	36.5	26	9
2	Big 10	32.4	38	8
3	Big 12	28.9	45	3
4	ACC	28.5	47	4
5	FBS Ind	22.8	68	1
6	Pac 2	17.1	83	0
7	Mountain West	15.2	89	0
8	Sun Belt	13.8	91	0
9	AAC	12.5	94	0
10	MAC	7.3	106	0
11	CUSA	5.3	112	0

End of Year ACC Rankings

                               

 

Since the college football playoff is ending it's time for out annual end of the year rankings for each conference. The ACC didn't rank as highly as we thought in the early season, but still finished with two teams in the college football playoff. As it turned the data showed that it should actually have been two other ACC teams in. The data also showed that two ACC teams that finished with stellar records were really just middle of the pack and one team that finished meh was actually one of the leagues better teams. The last thing we really noted in the ACC was the precipitous fall of Florida State.

It should be noted that each ranking is based on each teams body of work. Head to heads are not given an extra priority here. This means that even if a team beat another head to head they may still be ranked lower than the team they beat based on body of work. The best example from this year of this is Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost to Oregon earlier in the year, but in our evaluation we continued to believe Ohio State was really the better team. This played out in the playoffs.

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Clemson and SMU made the college football playoff, but the data tells us that Miami (FL) and Louisville were actually the better teams. Clemson averaged 11 points more than opponents this season against the 37th hardest schedule. They had two victories against top 25 opponents. SMU averaged 14 points more than opponents albeit against the 57th hardest SOS. They had just one victory against a Top 25 team. 

Conversely Louisville averaged 12 more points per game than opponents so more than Clemson but fewer than SMU. Their SOS was 36th which was better than both of the teams that finished above them. They also had two top 25 wins. Miami beat opponents almost by an average of 19 points, better than other teams in the ACC. Their SOS was not great though at 56. The 'Canes also had two victories over top 25 teams this season.  

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Neither Miami nor Louisville could have competed for a national title most likely, but the data shows that they were at least slightly better than the two teams who represented the ACC.  

The data also pointed out to us a few teams who's record might not have truly represented their strength. Syracuse and Duke despite finishing 10-3 and 9-4 respectively are only ranked 8th and 9th in the conference in our power ranking whereas Virginia Tech, who finished 6-7, rates 5th.

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Despite getting to 10 wins Syracuse's point differential was just 4.2 and their overall strength of schedule was just 63rd. That's the third easiest schedule in the ACC. The Orange did have some big wins, four top 25 wins according to the Aggregate's data, but they also seemed to play down to bad competition. Against three teams ranked 75th, 76th and 77th they went 2-1, but with an average point differential of 4 points. All three games were one possession. Often times when we see this type of data the team does not have nearly as good of record the next year, see Washington or Oklahoma State.

The other team that caught our attention this way was the Duke Blue Devils. Duke finished the season 9-4 in Manny Diaz's first year, but the data tells us they weren't quite as good as that record shows. Duke basically won every game it should have and lost every game it shouldn't. The lone exception on Duke's season was their victory over Virginia Tech. A team at that time that the Aggregate had rated as the 21st best team in the country. In Duke's four losses they lost by an average of 16 points to teams on average ranked 13th. In their 9 wins they won by an average of 9 points to teams ranked on average 82nd. So they won the games they should have, but what the data tells us is that if Duke had played a tougher schedule, such as some of their ACC brethren, their record would not have been near as good.

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Virginia Tech was the opposite of those preceding teams. We know that Hokies fans were not happy with this seasons results, but the data portends that things are going to be better even if Brent Pry hadn't made coaching changes. The Hokies data tells us that they were actually a pretty good team. They finished 26th nationally. Despite finishing 6-7 the Hokies still had a +6 point differential per game. In games they won they averaged winning by almost 20 points. In games they lost they averaged losing by less than 5. They lost twice in overtime. They only lost by two possessions twice and that was to the 11th ranked team and the 26th ranked team at those times.

The biggest disappointment in the ACC and honestly the country was Florida State. The Seminoles started the season ranked 8th in the Aggregate and they clearly had national championship aspirations, but State's season quickly devolved into "quicksand" as Shane Falco would have called it. The 'Noles finished the season 2-10 and dropped 81 spots in the Aggregate rankings. They lost by an average of almost 13 points against the 41st SOS. All of this combined does not bode well for Florida State's next season.   

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ACC Rankings
Rank	Team	Record	Conference	Rating	National Rank	Pre Season
1	Miami (FL)	10-3	6-2	43.4	11	13
2	Louisville	9-4	5-3	39.4	12	26
3	Clemson	10-4	7-1	38.1	14	11
4	Southern Methodist	11-3	8-0	37.4	19	14
5	Virginia Tech	6-7	4-4	34.5	26	22
6	Georgia Tech	7-6	5-3	33.3	29	42
7	Boston College	7-6	4-4	30.7	39	45
8	Syracuse	10-3	5-3	27.6	49	24
9	Duke	9-4	5-3	27.4	50	54
10	Pittsburgh	7-6	3-5	27.2	52	67
11	Virginia	5-7	3-5	24.3	60	71
12	North Carolina State	6-7	3-5	22.4	63	32
13	North Carolina	6-7	3-5	21.9	65	39
14	Wake Forest	4-8	2-6	18.0	80	78
15	Stanford	3-9	2-6	17.6	83	91
16	Florida State	2-10	1-7	14.9	89	8