For the past month we’ve been working here at the Aggregate on a new formula to try and evaluate coaches and the job they do. One of the basic ways to do this is to look at a coaches winning percentage, but this statistic doesn’t take into account many factors including time and environment. As a result a traditional winning percentage favors coaches who came into very favorable situations. To try and eliminate this we came up with a formula that gives coaches credit incrementally for their wins and losses. The basic premise is this, the longer a coach has been at a university the more accountable he is for it's wins and losses. We call this the Adjusted winning percentage
Sometimes the difference between a coaches adjusted and traditional winning percentage is negligible, but sometimes it’s not. In the case where a coaches traditional winning percentage is much higher than his adjusted we consider that coach to be overrated. In that spirit here are the top 10 overrated coaches in the FBS according to this data.
| Rank | Coach | Team | Adj W Pct | Tra W Pct | Difference | Conference |
| 1 | Jim Mora | UConn | 47.3% | 54.5% | -7.2% | Ind |
| 2 | Joe Moorhead | Akron | 29.8% | 36.0% | -6.2% | MAC |
| 3 | Clay Helton | GSU | 55.9% | 60.4% | -4.5% | Sunbelt |
| 4 | Josh Heupel | Tennessee | 69.8% | 73.3% | -3.5% | SEC |
| 5 | Pete Lembo | Buffalo | 49.7% | 53.2% | -3.5% | MAC |
| 6 | Gus Malzahn | UCF | 62.9% | 65.2% | -2.3% | B12 |
| 7 | Jake Dickert | Washington State | 46.3% | 48.4% | -2.2% | Pac12 |
| 8 | Eliah Drinkwitz | Mizzou | 62.4% | 64.5% | -2.1% | SEC |
| 9 | Blake Anderson | Utah State | 55.9% | 57.8% | -1.9% | MW |
| 10 | Mike Elko | Texas A&M | 62.2% | 64.0% | -1.8% | SEC |
Jim Mora, who is now at UConn, leads the way as the most overrated coach in the FBS. Mora’s traditional rate is over 50 % at 54.5%, but his adjusted rate is just 47.3%. Mora is basically the poster boy for winning with previous staff's players. Mora has coached both UCLA and now Uconn. His first three years at UCLA were his most successful. He's only in his third year at Uconn, but the pattern has repeated. Uconn went 6-7 his first year, only 3-9 last year.
The most significant name on this list is that of Tennessee head coach, Josh Heupel. Heupel is the fourth most overrated coach in the FBS according to this data. His traditional win percentage is a 3.5% higher than his adjusted. It should be pointed out that his adjusted is still 69.8% good enough for 20th best in the country. The data is not telling us that Heupel is not a good coach just that he's not as good of coach as his traditional win percentage might tell you. If you just went by his traditional win percentage Heupel would be 12th in the country not 20th. It's also notable that in the top 10 are three coaches from the SEC. More than any other conference.
Here is where every coach ranks in the FBS.
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| Rank | Coach | Team | Adj W Pct | Tra W Pct | Difference | Conference | | 1 | Jim Mora | UConn | 47.3% | 54.5% | -7.2% | Ind | | 2 | Joe Moorhead | Akron | 29.8% | 36.0% | -6.2% | MAC | | 3 | Clay Helton | GSU | 55.9% | 60.4% | -4.5% | Sunbelt | | 4 | Josh Heupel | Tennessee | 69.8% | 73.3% | -3.5% | SEC | | 5 | Pete Lembo | Buffalo | 49.7% | 53.2% | -3.5% | MAC | | 6 | Gus Malzahn | UCF | 62.9% | 65.2% | -2.3% | B12 | | 7 | Jake Dickert | Washington State | 46.3% | 48.4% | -2.2% | Pac12 | | 8 | Eliah Drinkwitz | Mizzou | 62.4% | 64.5% | -2.1% | SEC | | 9 | Blake Anderson | Utah State | 55.9% | 57.8% | -1.9% | MW | | 10 | Mike Elko | Texas A&M | 62.2% | 64.0% | -1.8% | SEC | | 11 | Shawn Clark | App State | 64.3% | 66.0% | -1.7% | Sunbelt | | 12 | Jeff Tedford | Fresno State | 60.0% | 61.7% | -1.7% | MW | | 13 | Jason Candle | Toledo | 63.3% | 65.0% | -1.7% | MAC | | 14 | Willie Fritz | Houston | 55.5% | 57.1% | -1.6% | B12 | | 15 | Sonny Cumbie | La Tech | 26.0% | 27.6% | -1.6% | CUSA | | 16 | Jeff Brohm | Louisville | 59.8% | 61.3% | -1.5% | ACC | | 17 | Ricky Rahne | Old Dominion | 38.1% | 39.5% | -1.4% | Sunbelt | | 18 | Bill O'Brien | Boston College | 61.1% | 62.5% | -1.4% | ACC | | 19 | Ryan Day | Ohio State | 86.2% | 87.5% | -1.3% | B10 | | 20 | Joey McGuire | Texas Tech | 56.4% | 57.7% | -1.3% | B12 | | 21 | Tom Herman | FAU | 64.6% | 65.9% | -1.3% | AAC | | 22 | Michael Desormeaux | Louisiana | 46.8% | 48.1% | -1.3% | Sunbelt | | 23 | Ryan Silverfield | Memphis | 62.1% | 63.3% | -1.2% | AAC | | 24 | LIncoln Riley | USC | 79.3% | 80.4% | -1.1% | B10 | | 25 | Jim McElwain | C. Michigan | 55.5% | 56.6% | -1.1% | MAC | | 26 | Tyson Helton | W. Kentucky | 59.7% | 60.6% | -0.9% | CUSA | | 27 | Ken Niumatalolo | San Jose State | 56.0% | 56.8% | -0.8% | MW | | 28 | Tony Elliott | Virginia | 26.5% | 27.3% | -0.8% | ACC | | 29 | Troy Calhoun | Air Force | 60.9% | 61.3% | -0.4% | MW | | 30 | Pat Narduzzi | Pittsburgh | 56.1% | 56.5% | -0.4% | ACC | | 31 | Justin Wilcox | California | 45.3% | 45.6% | -0.3% | ACC | | 32 | Shane Beamer | South Carolina | 52.4% | 52.6% | -0.2% | SEC | | 33 | Jon Sumrall | Tulane | 85.0% | 85.2% | -0.2% | AAC | | 34 | Dave Doeren | NC State | 62.6% | 62.7% | -0.1% | ACC | | 35 | Eric Morris | UNT | 41.7% | 41.7% | 0.0% | AAC | | 36 | Brian Newberry | Navy | 41.7% | 41.7% | 0.0% | AAC | | 37 | Sherrone Moore | Michigan | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | B10 | | 38 | Spencer Danielson | Boise State | 75.0% | 75.0% | 0.0% | MW | | 39 | K.C. Keeler | Sam Houston | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | CUSA | | 40 | Scotty Walden | Utep | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | CUSA | | 41 | Biff Poggi | Charlotte | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | AAC | | 42 | Stan Drayton | Temple | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | AAC | | 43 | Troy Taylor | Stanford | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | ACC | | 44 | Kenny Dillingham | AZ St | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | B12 | | 45 | Gerad Parker | Troy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Sunbelt | | 46 | Lance Taylor | W. Michigan | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | MAC | | 47 | Trent Dilfer | UAB | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | AAC | | 48 | Ryan Walters | Purdue | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | B10 | | 49 | Deion Sanders | Colorado | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | B12 | | 50 | Kenni Burns | Kent State | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% | MAC | | 51 | Tim Beck | Coastal Carolina | 61.5% | 61.5% | 0.0% | Sunbelt | | 52 | G.J. Kinne | Texas State | 61.5% | 61.5% | 0.0% | Sunbelt | | 53 | David Braun | Northwestern | 61.5% | 61.5% | 0.0% | B10 | | 54 | Alex Golesh | USF | 53.8% | 53.8% | 0.0% | AAC | | 55 | Bryant Vincent | ULM | 53.8% | 53.8% | 0.0% | Sunbelt | | 56 | Chris Klieman | Kansas State | 61.9% | 61.9% | 0.0% | B12 | | 57 | Thomas Hammock | NIU | 42.2% | 42.1% | 0.1% | MAC | | 58 | Scott Satterfield | Cincinnati | 60.6% | 60.5% | 0.1% | B12 | | 59 | Kyle Whittingham | Utah | 67.6% | 67.2% | 0.4% | B12 | | 60 | Derek Mason | MTSU | 33.3% | 32.9% | 0.4% | CUSA | | 61 | Charles Huff | Marshall | 56.9% | 56.4% | 0.5% | Sunbelt | | 62 | Brent Key | GT | 52.9% | 52.4% | 0.5% | ACC | | 63 | Bret Bielema | Illinois | 60.6% | 59.9% | 0.7% | B10 | | 64 | Matt Campbell | Iowa St | 59.1% | 58.3% | 0.8% | B12 | | 65 | Butch Jones | Ark St | 55.2% | 54.3% | 0.9% | Sunbelt | | 66 | Mike Houston | East Carolina | 42.3% | 41.4% | 0.9% | AAC | | 67 | Hugh Freeze | Auburn | 65.1% | 64.0% | 1.1% | SEC | | 68 | Tony Sanchez | NMSU | 34.5% | 33.3% | 1.2% | CUSA | | 69 | Scot Loeffler | Bowling Green | 37.8% | 36.4% | 1.4% | MAC | | 70 | Kalani Sitake | BYU | 61.2% | 59.8% | 1.4% | B12 | | 71 | Dan Lanning | Oregon | 82.9% | 81.5% | 1.4% | B10 | | 72 | Neal Brown | WVU | 61.2% | 59.5% | 1.7% | B12 | | 73 | Clark Lea | Vanderbilt | 26.7% | 25.0% | 1.7% | SEC | | 74 | Mike Gundy | Ok St | 69.5% | 67.8% | 1.7% | B12 | | 75 | Kalen Deboer | Alabama | 82.2% | 80.4% | 1.8% | SEC | | 76 | Barry Odom | UNLV | 54.9% | 53.1% | 1.8% | MW | | 77 | Brian Kelly | LSU | 74.7% | 72.9% | 1.8% | SEC | | 78 | Jeff Traylor | UTSA | 75.5% | 73.6% | 1.9% | AAC | | 79 | Will Hall | Southern Miss | 37.1% | 35.1% | 2.0% | Sunbelt | | 80 | Major Applewhite | S. Alabama | 59.7% | 57.7% | 2.0% | Sunbelt | | 81 | Sam Pittman | Arkansas | 50.0% | 47.9% | 2.1% | SEC | | 82 | Lane Kiffin | Ole Miss | 68.3% | 66.2% | 2.1% | SEC | | 83 | Bronco Mendenhall | New Mexico | 64.7% | 62.5% | 2.2% | MW | | 84 | Greg Schiano | Rutgers | 50.1% | 47.8% | 2.3% | B10 | | 85 | Kirk Ferentz | Iowa | 64.5% | 62.2% | 2.3% | B10 | | 86 | Mike Bloomgren | Rice | 34.9% | 32.4% | 2.5% | AAC | | 87 | Mike Norvell | Florida State | 70.1% | 67.6% | 2.5% | ACC | | 88 | Timmy Chang | Hawai'i | 33.3% | 30.8% | 2.5% | MW | | 89 | Steve Sarkisian | Texas | 61.7% | 59.2% | 2.5% | SEC | | 90 | Dave Aranda | Baylor | 50.6% | 47.9% | 2.7% | B12 | | 91 | Kirby Smart | Georgia | 88.2% | 85.5% | 2.7% | SEC | | 92 | Mario Cristobal | Miami | 53.0% | 50.3% | 2.7% | ACC | | 93 | Don Brown | UMass | 19.4% | 16.7% | 2.7% | Ind | | 94 | James Franklin | Penn State | 70.3% | 67.5% | 2.8% | B10 | | 95 | Mike Neu | Ball State | 42.7% | 39.8% | 2.9% | MAC | | 96 | Dabo Swinney | Clemson | 82.8% | 79.8% | 3.0% | ACC | | 97 | Marcus Freeman | Notre Dame | 73.4% | 70.4% | 3.0% | Ind | | 98 | Curt Cignetti | Indiana | 85.7% | 82.6% | 3.1% | B10 | | 99 | Rich Rodriguez | Jacksonville St. | 62.5% | 59.3% | 3.2% | CUSA | | 100 | Manny Diaz | Duke | 61.7% | 58.3% | 3.4% | ACC | | 101 | Mark Stoops | Kentucky | 56.5% | 52.9% | 3.6% | SEC | | 102 | Sonny Dykes | TCU | 59.1% | 55.3% | 3.8% | B12 | | 103 | Dave Clawson | Wake Forest | 54.3% | 50.5% | 3.8% | ACC | | 104 | Jeff Monken | Army | 60.0% | 56.0% | 4.0% | AAC | | 105 | Mack Brown | UNC | 69.7% | 65.7% | 4.0% | ACC | | 106 | Rhett Lashlee | SMU | 70.7% | 66.7% | 4.0% | ACC | | 107 | Kevin Wilson | Tulsa | 39.3% | 35.3% | 4.0% | AAC | | 108 | Billy Napier | Florida | 70.3% | 66.2% | 4.1% | SEC | | 109 | Chris Creighton | E. Michigan | 47.4% | 43.3% | 4.1% | MAC | | 110 | Brent Pry | Va Tech | 45.9% | 41.7% | 4.2% | ACC | | 111 | Jay Norvell | Colorado State | 54.1% | 49.4% | 4.7% | MW | | 112 | Mike Macintyre | FIU | 44.8% | 40.0% | 4.8% | CUSA | | 113 | Sean Lewis | San Diego State | 48.5% | 43.6% | 4.9% | MW | | 114 | Brent Venables | Oklahoma | 66.7% | 61.5% | 5.2% | SEC | | 115 | Jonathan Smith | Michigan State | 54.6% | 49.3% | 5.3% | B10 | | 116 | Jamey Chadwell | Liberty | 75.0% | 69.3% | 5.7% | CUSA | | 117 | Chuck Martin | Miami (OH) | 53.5% | 47.5% | 6.0% | MAC | | 118 | PJ Fleck | Minnesota | 64.9% | 58.8% | 6.1% | B10 | | 119 | Tim Albin | Ohio | 65.2% | 59.0% | 6.2% | MAC | | 120 | Jedd Fisch | Washington | 50.0% | 43.6% | 6.4% | B10 | | 121 | Luke Fickell | Wisconsin | 77.3% | 69.6% | 7.7% | B10 | | 122 | Brent Brennan | Arizona | 49.6% | 41.5% | 8.1% | B12 | | 123 | Mike Locksley | Maryland | 43.6% | 34.4% | 9.2% | B10 | | 124 | Matt Rhule | Nebraska | 61.7% | 51.0% | 10.7% | B10 | | 125 | Lance Leipold | KU | 63.2% | 50.0% | 13.2% | B12 |
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