Conference Ranks Through Week 8

This is a metric we keep each week, but had not published until now. The following is a breakdown of each conferences strength based on the average rating of their teams in the Aggregate. Also included is the average rank of their teams although it is not included as part of the formula for ranking them. 

CFB Top Conferences
Rank	Conference	Average Rating	Average Rank	Teams in the Top 25
1	SEC	37.5	26	9
2	Big 10	34.4	33	7
3	ACC	30.2	45	4
4	Big 12	29.2	46	3
5	Pac 2	23.2	69	0
6	FBS Ind	21.5	69	1
7	Mountain West	14.6	88	0
8	Sun Belt	14.2	92	0
9	AAC	12.7	93	0
10	MAC	7.2	107	0
11	CUSA	5.2	109	0

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Week 4 Conference Rankings

  

Week 4 conference rankings for college football. No real surprises here. This is our first conference rankings of the year and things don't look much different from last year except for the subtraction of the Pac 12. The Mountain West is also now rated higher than the Sun Belt. 

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CFB Top Conferences
Rank	Conference	Average Rating	Average Rank	Teams in the Top 25
1	SEC	37.6	29	9
2	Big 10	35.1	32	5
3	ACC	31.2	43	5
4	Big 12	29.8	45	5
5	Pac 2	26.2	58	0
6	FBS Ind	19.3	77	1
7	Mountain West	15.7	89	0
8	Sun Belt	14.3	94	0
9	AAC	13.5	94	0
10	MAC	9.6	102	0
11	CUSA	6.2	114	0

Adjusted Win Percentage For FBS Independent Coaches

Over the next coming weeks before I break out predictions and rankings for each FBS conference I wanted to introduce a new analytic. I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually are as it does not factor in a multitude of issues including environment, player talent, competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results. 

With all that being said I will be laying out each conference with teams and coach and what their adjusted win percentage is in the next week or so.

First up is the FBS Independents. There are only three unaffiliated teams this season in the FBS and for sure they're led by Notre Dame and fairly new head coach Marcus Freeman. I have to admit I had my doubts about Freeman, but he has prevailed and many see the Irish as a possible national title contender this season. Interestingly all three coaches in this grouping are going into their third year, but at this point only one has had success. 

IND Coaches	Team	W	L	Pct
Marcus Freeman	Notre Dame	14.5	5.25	73.4%
Jim Mora	UConn	32.75	36.5	47.3%
Don Brown	UMass	3.5	14.5	19.4%

Final Aggregate Rankings for FBS Independents

 The final ranking for the FBS Independents is out. No real surprise that Notre Dame is on top with Army second. For the last two spots the Aggregate sees the Uconn Huskies as about 6 points better than the Umass Minutemen.