CFB Bowl Week 3 Picks

 College football bowl picks for week 3. The Aggregate is picking only one upset in the CFP. It also likes Ohio State to get revenge against the Oregon Ducks. Nor is it giving the Carson Beck-less Georgia Bulldogs much of a chance to beat Notre Dame. 

The Aggregate likes Notre Dame to beat the Georgia Bulldogs today. The data tells us the game should not be that close predicting a 36-24 victory. Certainly the loss of Carson Beck plays a factor in the Aggregate's prediction, but even if Beck was not injured the Georgia's chances would still just be 33%. In fact the data right now points to Notre Dame being the best team in the country. The Irish  have had the 17th toughest SOS in the country and are averaging beating their opponents by 29 points a game.

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The Aggregate favors Ohio State in their rematch with the Ducks, but it should be pointed out they also favored them in their game early in the season. The Buckeyes will have the advantage this time of not having to play at Oregon as the game is in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks actually have the better SOS, 19th-26th, but the Buckeyes are beating those opponents by an average of 7 points more per game. 

Bowl Week 3 CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Iowa	8-4	35	60.9%	+2.5		+105
Missouri	9-3	30	39.1%	-2.5	43.5	-125
Alabama	9-3	34	72.8%	-11.5		-395
Michigan	7-5	21	27.2%	+11.5	43.5	+310
Louisville	8-4	36	62.7%	-5.0		-192
Washington	6-6	30	37.3%	+5.0	50.5	+160
South Carolina	9-3	31	54.4%	-11.5		-425
Illinois	9-3	30	45.6%	+11.5	47.5	+330
Baylor	8-4	37	49.1%	+3.0		+130
Louisiana State	8-4	36	50.9%	-3.0	60.5	-155
Penn State	12-2	36	78.6%	-10.5		-355
Boise State	12-1	21	21.4%	+10.5	52.5	+280
Texas	12-2	34	72.9%	-13.5		-550
Arizona State	11-2	21	27.1%	+13.5	52.5	+410
Ohio State	11-2	37	60.2%	-1.0		-115
Oregon	13-0	34	39.8%	+1.0	53.5	-105
Notre Dame	12-1	36	70.9%	+1.0		-105
Georgia	11-2	24	29.1%	-1.0	44.5	-115
Duke	9-3	20	10.1%	+14.0		+410
Mississippi	9-3	38	89.9%	-14.0	53.5	-550
North Texas	6-6	27	23.7%	+7.5		+250
Texas State	7-5	44	76.3%	-7.5	66.5	-310
Minnesota	7-5	30	66.9%	-4.5		-175
Virginia Tech	6-6	24	33.1%	+4.5	42.5	+145
Buffalo	8-4	37	49.7%	+3.5		+136
Liberty	8-4	39	50.3%	-3.5	51.5	-162

Champ Week Predictions

 Champ week Predictions for the Aggregate. The Aggregate mainly likes the favorites this week with only one exception in the median prediction model and an entirely different exception in the mean prediction model. All the teams are very well matched with only one reaching into the 60%. 

The one exception to the favorite for the Median prediction model, which has been the more accurate model, is SMU. The Mustangs are 11-1 and playing for the ACC title in their very first year in the conference. The season data tells us that SMU should beat Clemson 53.3% of the time. That's not a big advantage, but it is some. The Aggregate actually likes SMU even more than the 53.3% if the game was played at a true neutral site, but with the game in Charlotte it's giving Clemson a close to home field advantage that helps them be more in contention. Without a homefield advantage SMU's chance to win rises to 56.2% and the mean prediction (score) changes to liking the Ponies to win. 

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The exception to the favorite in the mean (score) prediction is the Arizona State Sun Devils. The mean prediction likes the Sun Devils by 1.4 points. This is in contrast to the median prediction which marks Iowa State as the favorite with a 50.3% chance to win. The mean prediction actually give Arizona State a 54.8% chance to win. Standard deviation is a large part of the mean prediction and the biggest reason it likes Arizona State is because of their low end standard deviation. While both Arizona State's top end and bottom end standard deviation are better than Iowa State's it's at the bottom end that the biggest difference occurs. If that was hard to follow basically the data tells us that the Sun Devils are noticeably better in their worst performances this year than Iowa State is and that makes them a slight favorite. 

Almost all games are a coin flip prediction although we'll point out that when the Aggregate says you have a 50% chance or better teams are winning 62.9% of the time. 

Championship Week CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Friday, December 6th
Western Kentucky	8-4	36	44.4%	+1.5		-102
Jacksonville State	8-4	40	55.6%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Tulane	9-3	42	59.2%	-4.0		-170
Army	10-1	37	40.8%	+4.0	48.5	+142
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-2	39	39.1%	+5.5		+180
Boise State	11-1	42	60.9%	-5.5	58.5	-218
Saturday, December 7th
Iowa State	10-2	32	50.3%	-1.0		-115
Arizona State	10-2	33	49.7%	+1.0	50.5	-105
Ohio	9-3	30	45.6%	-1.0		-110
Miami (OH)	8-4	34	54.4%	+1.0	45.5	-110
Texas	11-1	34	58.0%	-1.5		-118
Georgia	10-2	30	42.0%	+1.5	49.5	-102
Marshall	9-3	34	42.0%	+3.5		+140
Louisiana	10-2	36	58.0%	-3.5	58.5	-166
Southern Methodist	11-1	35	53.3%	+1.5		even
Clemson	9-3	36	46.7%	-1.5	54.5	-120
Penn State	11-1	28	46.2%	+3.0		+124
Oregon	12-0	30	53.8%	-3.0	51.5	-148