End of Year Top 25 Rankings

End of year top 25 rankings. After the bowl season teams moved around a lot. Ohio State climbs to the top. Arizona State was our biggest climber. Colorado had our biggest drop. We have five teams in the exact same spot as the AP and we have three teams ranked that the AP couldn't find space for. Florida is our biggest disagreement with the AP ranking 18 spots higher in our ranking than theirs. 

It doesn't always happen with the Aggregate rankings and the eventual national championship, but this year the algorithm agrees with what happened on the field. Ohio State was rated the nations best team according to the data with Notre Dame second. The Buckeyes were highly rated all season by the numbers, but really came into their own at the end. Ohio State started ranked 4th in our system and never went above 9th on the season. 

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Arizona State was our biggest climber this week rising eight spots. The Sun Devils showed a lot in the college football playoffs and were one of the years best stories. We had them ranked as the 85th best team in the country to start the year and their change of 72 places was the best for any team this season. 

The Colorado Buffaloes had the most precipitous drop this week. The Buffaloes retained almost all their star players for their matchup with BYU and the Aggregate had them as a 4 point favorite, but BYU took it to them winning the Alamo bowl 36-14. 

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We have three teams ranked in our final 25 that the AP couldn't find space for even in their receiving votes. The numbers tell us that Iowa, USC and Minnesota all our top 25 teams in the country even though their records are not as sexy. The Hawkeyes reason for being so high was some good wins against edge top 25 schools. They beat teams ranked 32, 28 and 25 by a combined 73 points. USC was helped by two things. The Trojans bookended their season with a victory over top 25 schools and then all of their losses sans Notre Dame were by single digits. Minnesota started the season 2-3, but finished the year 6-2 with wins over two top 25 schools. 

The numbers tell us that the Florida Gators are a much better team than 33rd in the country. The Gators went up as high as 53rd during the season, but their improved performance over the latter part of the season has us putting them all the way at 15th. Florida beat LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State and then Tulane to finish the season. State not withstanding those other wins were very impressive and moved Florida up high on our list.

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Ohio State	14-2	+2	53.3	1
2	Notre Dame	14-2	-1	51.8	2
3	Texas	13-3	-1	48.6	4
4	Mississippi	10-3	0	48.3	11
5	Penn State	13-3	+3	45.9	5
6	Alabama	9-4	-1	45.7	17
7	Oregon	13-1	0	45.1	3
8	Tennessee	10-3	-2	44.7	9
9	Indiana	11-2	0	44.5	10
10	Georgia	11-3	+1	44.1	6
11	Miami (FL)	10-3	-1	43.4	18
12	Louisville	9-4	0	39.4	28
13	Arizona State	11-3	+8	39.0	7
14	Clemson	10-4	+2	38.1	14
15	Florida	8-5	+7	37.9	33
16	South Carolina	9-4	-2	37.9	19
17	Iowa	8-5	-2	37.6	NR
18	Louisiana State	9-4	+1	37.6	27
19	Southern Methodist	11-3	-6	37.4	12
20	Southern California	7-6	-2	37.2	NR
21	Michigan	8-5	+3	36.9	29
22	Minnesota	8-5	+4	36.4	NR
23	Texas A&M	8-5	-3	36.3	35
24	Brigham Young	11-2	+4	35.9	13
25	Colorado	9-4	-8	35.5	25
134	Kent State	0-12	-	-16.0	NR

College Football Playoff Semi-final Predictions

 College football playoff semi-final predictions. The Aggregate likes Notre Dame as a big favorite. In the second game the data is telling us it will be a much closer game with Ohio State being the slight favorite over the Longhorns.

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For the game on Thursday night the data tells us that Notre Dame is a touchdown favorite over Penn State. Often the biggest thing brought up for Notre Dame is their week two loss to Northern Illinois, but the data from this season tells us that game is the outlier for the Irish. Notre Dame's Aggregate value score for that game was a 4.3. Their next closest score to that this season for the Irish is a 38.1. In fact the range of the rest of their game value scores is 38.1-77.8. Penn State conversely has been very consistent, but they have not shown the upper end that Notre Dame has. Their range of game scores this season is 25.3-62.6.  

Other metrics don't favor Notre Dame quite as much as the Aggregate. The Vegas line has them only as a 1.5 point favorite. Jeff Sagarin has them with a 58% chance to win and ESPN's FPI has them with a 58.6% chance. The Aggregate's other prediction style, the mean prediction, has the Irish with a 69.7% chance. When ESPN's FPI predicts a team in the 50.1%-59.9% chance to win they win 50% of the time. When Sagrain predicts 50.1%-59.9% they win 53.9% of the time. However, when the Aggregate mean predicts 60%-69.9% they win 74.6% of the time and when the Aggregate median predicts 70%-79.9% the team wins 71.4% of the time. 

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In the week's second game the Aggregate is predicting a much closer contest. The Aggregate see's Ohio State as a slight favorite in this game. The Buckeyes are favored by one point and given a 54.2% chance below. Before the last round of the playoffs the data actually showed Texas as a slight favorite in this game, but the Buckeyes rout of Oregon and the Longhorns close game with the Sun Devils changed the data's prediction. 

The Buckeyes are averaging beating their opponents by 24 points. This against the 26th hardest schedule in the country this year. The Longhorns averaged beating opponents by 19.5 points per game against a schedule that the Aggregate ranks as the 11th hardest in the country. 

CFP Semi-finals Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-122
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	+102
Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

CFB Bowl Week 3 Picks

 College football bowl picks for week 3. The Aggregate is picking only one upset in the CFP. It also likes Ohio State to get revenge against the Oregon Ducks. Nor is it giving the Carson Beck-less Georgia Bulldogs much of a chance to beat Notre Dame. 

The Aggregate likes Notre Dame to beat the Georgia Bulldogs today. The data tells us the game should not be that close predicting a 36-24 victory. Certainly the loss of Carson Beck plays a factor in the Aggregate's prediction, but even if Beck was not injured the Georgia's chances would still just be 33%. In fact the data right now points to Notre Dame being the best team in the country. The Irish  have had the 17th toughest SOS in the country and are averaging beating their opponents by 29 points a game.

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The Aggregate favors Ohio State in their rematch with the Ducks, but it should be pointed out they also favored them in their game early in the season. The Buckeyes will have the advantage this time of not having to play at Oregon as the game is in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks actually have the better SOS, 19th-26th, but the Buckeyes are beating those opponents by an average of 7 points more per game. 

Bowl Week 3 CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Iowa	8-4	35	60.9%	+2.5		+105
Missouri	9-3	30	39.1%	-2.5	43.5	-125
Alabama	9-3	34	72.8%	-11.5		-395
Michigan	7-5	21	27.2%	+11.5	43.5	+310
Louisville	8-4	36	62.7%	-5.0		-192
Washington	6-6	30	37.3%	+5.0	50.5	+160
South Carolina	9-3	31	54.4%	-11.5		-425
Illinois	9-3	30	45.6%	+11.5	47.5	+330
Baylor	8-4	37	49.1%	+3.0		+130
Louisiana State	8-4	36	50.9%	-3.0	60.5	-155
Penn State	12-2	36	78.6%	-10.5		-355
Boise State	12-1	21	21.4%	+10.5	52.5	+280
Texas	12-2	34	72.9%	-13.5		-550
Arizona State	11-2	21	27.1%	+13.5	52.5	+410
Ohio State	11-2	37	60.2%	-1.0		-115
Oregon	13-0	34	39.8%	+1.0	53.5	-105
Notre Dame	12-1	36	70.9%	+1.0		-105
Georgia	11-2	24	29.1%	-1.0	44.5	-115
Duke	9-3	20	10.1%	+14.0		+410
Mississippi	9-3	38	89.9%	-14.0	53.5	-550
North Texas	6-6	27	23.7%	+7.5		+250
Texas State	7-5	44	76.3%	-7.5	66.5	-310
Minnesota	7-5	30	66.9%	-4.5		-175
Virginia Tech	6-6	24	33.1%	+4.5	42.5	+145
Buffalo	8-4	37	49.7%	+3.5		+136
Liberty	8-4	39	50.3%	-3.5	51.5	-162