Adjusted Winning Percnetage for Pac 12 Coaches

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

Only two programs remain in what is left of the Pac 12. Out of them only one has a coach with FBS experience so Jake Dickert wins by default. Dickert has had two seasons at Washington State and after a successful first year his team struggled in year two. As a result Dickert has an adjusted winning percentage of only 46.3%. The Aggregate also considers him overrated as his traditional winning percentage is 48.4%. 

Pac 12 Coaches	Team	W	L	Adjusted W Pct	Traditional W Pct	Difference
Trent Bray	Oregon State	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!	0	#DIV/0!
Jake Dickert	Washington State	9.3	10.8	46.3%	48.40%	-2.2%

Deal on Amazon Prime

WashSt T-Shirts on Amazon

Aggregate Predictions for Games December 29th

The Aggregate predictions for December 29th. The Aggregate likes every one, but one favorite. It favors Ohio State above Missouri. The Tigers are 10-2, but the Aggregate has been very slow to value them. It sees Mizzou losing by 14 to Ohio State. The Aggregate also likes Clemson by 13 compared to the Vegas line of 4. It's almost perfectly in line with Vegas in the other two games though picking Notre Dame by 7, they're a 6.5 point favorite and Iowa State by 8, Vegas has them as an 8.5 point favorite.