Week 14 Friday Predictions

 Week 14 Friday Predictions. The Aggregate has predicted three upsets on the day. 

The Aggregate likes Minnesota over Wisconsin in the battle for Paul Bunyan's axe. Vegas announced the Badgers as a two point favorite when the betting line was announced. The Aggregate data tells us that the Badgers have a higher ceiling than the Gophers, but overall the Gophers have been more consistent on the season and don't have as bad of performances as Wisconsin which is why the Aggregate gives Minnesota the slight edge. 

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The next upset the Aggregate likes is Navy winning at East Carolina. Vegas installed ECU as a one point favorite coming into the week. The Pirates have excelled since firing their head coach, but the Aggregate see's Navy as just too powerful to go in and lose giving them a 62.9% chance to win. The Aggregate data also does not like the loss of ECU's head coach. Statistically speaking the loss of a head coach is almost always harmful to a teams overall strength. ECU is trying to be the exception to that rule. 

Lastly the Aggregate likes Texas State to go to South Alabama and win. Both of these teams have been up and down this year, but the Aggregate gives the slight edge to Texas State in this game. The data tells us that the Jaguars have been slightly more consistent than the Bobcats this season, but the Bobcats have a better point differential against a harder schedule. 

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Week Fourteen CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score Prediction	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Tuesday, November 26th
Kent State	0-11	17	15.3%	+21.5		+900
Buffalo	7-4	42	84.7%	-21.5	50.5	-1600
Toledo	7-4	36	79.2%	-9.5		-310
Akron	3-8	20	20.8%	+9.5	48.5	+250
Thursday, November 28th
Memphis	9-2	30	24.3%	+12.5		+380
Tulane	9-2	46	75.7%	-12.5	56.5	-500
Friday, November 29th
Ball State	3-8	23	16.7%	+13.5		+425
Ohio	8-3	40	83.3%	-13.5	53	-575
Miami (OH)	7-4	24	43.8%	+3.0		+124
Bowling Green	7-4	30	56.3%	-3.0	43	-148
Oklahoma State	3-8	26	27.1%	+16.5		+525
Colorado	8-3	41	72.9%	-16.5	64.5	-750
Minnesota	6-5	34	59.0%	+2.0		+105
Wisconsin	5-6	30	41.0%	-2.0	44	-125
Oregon State	5-6	21	18.1%	+18.5		+675
Boise State	10-1	42	81.9%	-18.5	55.5	-1050
Navy	7-3	41	62.9%	+1.0		-115
East Carolina	7-4	31	37.1%	-1.0	56.5	-105
Texas State	6-5	39	58.3%	+1.0		-105
South Alabama	6-5	33	41.7%	-1.0	62.5	-115
Mississippi State	2-9	13	4.9%	+27.5		+1400
Mississippi	8-3	45	95.1%	-27.5	61.5	-3200
Liberty	8-3	21	37.5%	-1.0		-130
Sam Houston	8-3	30	62.5%	+1.0	47	+110
Utah State	4-7	37	38.2%	+7.0		+180
Colorado State	7-4	40	61.8%	-7.0	60.5	-218
Stanford	3-8	34	42.4%	+1.5		even
San Jose State	6-5	36	57.6%	-1.5	54.5	-120
Nebraska	6-5	24	29.9%	+4.0		+154
Iowa	7-4	37	70.1%	-4.0	39	-185
Georgia Tech	7-4	20	22.2%	+20.5		+800
Georgia	9-2	34	77.8%	-20.5	54.5	-1350
Utah	4-7	31	33.3%	+4.5		+240
Central Florida	4-7	40	66.7%	-4.5	48.5	-298

Top 25 Week 14

      

Top 25 for Week 14. The biggest highlight for this weeks top 25 is a new number one. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are now rated as the best team in the land by the Aggregate. 

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The top 25 also features a few big movers. Florida jumps up 5 spots to 19th after a big win over Ole Miss and SMU continues to rise climbing another 4 spots to 16th. 

Our biggest drop came from Colorado. The Buffaloes dropped 6 spots down to 24th after their loss to Kansas this week. The Jayhawks were ranked 34th coming into the game, but still fell after losing by 16 to a team they were favored to beat. 

Other notes are the teams the Aggregate thinks are better than the CFP committee is rating them as. The most glaring of these teams is the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa is rated 12th in the Aggregate poll. The Hawkeyes have played the 26th hardest schedule in the nation and have a +11.7 point differential. Iowa seems to be helped the most by the point that they've beaten three top 30 ranked teams by at least 17 points. 

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Other teams the Aggregate ranks in the top 25 that the CFP committee did not include: Louisville, USC, Florida, LSU and Virginia Tech. Which of these teams do you believe are actually a top 25 team in the country? 

	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	CFP Ranking
1	Notre Dame	10-1	+1	52.5	5
2	Ohio State	10-1	+2	51.4	2
3	Texas	10-1	-2	50.7	3
4	Mississippi	8-3	-1	49.0	14
5	Alabama	8-3	0	47.1	13
6	Tennessee	9-2	+2	46.2	8
7	Miami (FL)	10-1	-1	45.9	6
8	Georgia	9-2	-1	45.0	7
9	Oregon	11-0	0	45.0	1
10	Penn State	10-1	0	43.9	4
11	Indiana	10-1	0	42.2	10
12	Iowa	7-4	+2	39.0	NR
13	Louisville	7-4	+3	38.8	NR
14	Clemson	9-2	-2	38.3	12
15	South Carolina	8-3	-2	38.2	15
16	Southern Methodist	10-1	+4	37.3	9
17	Southern California	6-5	-2	37.1	NR
18	Texas A&M	8-3	-1	36.4	20
19	Florida	6-5	+5	36.4	NR
20	Louisiana State	7-4	-1	35.6	NR
21	Tulane	9-2	+1	35.5	17
22	Virginia Tech	5-6	-1	35.0	NR
23	Brigham Young	9-2	0	34.7	19
24	Colorado	8-3	-6	34.5	25
25	Arizona State	9-2	+3	34.4	16
133	Kent State	0-11	0	-15.0	NR