Champ Week Predictions

 Champ week Predictions for the Aggregate. The Aggregate mainly likes the favorites this week with only one exception in the median prediction model and an entirely different exception in the mean prediction model. All the teams are very well matched with only one reaching into the 60%. 

The one exception to the favorite for the Median prediction model, which has been the more accurate model, is SMU. The Mustangs are 11-1 and playing for the ACC title in their very first year in the conference. The season data tells us that SMU should beat Clemson 53.3% of the time. That's not a big advantage, but it is some. The Aggregate actually likes SMU even more than the 53.3% if the game was played at a true neutral site, but with the game in Charlotte it's giving Clemson a close to home field advantage that helps them be more in contention. Without a homefield advantage SMU's chance to win rises to 56.2% and the mean prediction (score) changes to liking the Ponies to win. 

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The exception to the favorite in the mean (score) prediction is the Arizona State Sun Devils. The mean prediction likes the Sun Devils by 1.4 points. This is in contrast to the median prediction which marks Iowa State as the favorite with a 50.3% chance to win. The mean prediction actually give Arizona State a 54.8% chance to win. Standard deviation is a large part of the mean prediction and the biggest reason it likes Arizona State is because of their low end standard deviation. While both Arizona State's top end and bottom end standard deviation are better than Iowa State's it's at the bottom end that the biggest difference occurs. If that was hard to follow basically the data tells us that the Sun Devils are noticeably better in their worst performances this year than Iowa State is and that makes them a slight favorite. 

Almost all games are a coin flip prediction although we'll point out that when the Aggregate says you have a 50% chance or better teams are winning 62.9% of the time. 

Championship Week CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Friday, December 6th
Western Kentucky	8-4	36	44.4%	+1.5		-102
Jacksonville State	8-4	40	55.6%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Tulane	9-3	42	59.2%	-4.0		-170
Army	10-1	37	40.8%	+4.0	48.5	+142
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-2	39	39.1%	+5.5		+180
Boise State	11-1	42	60.9%	-5.5	58.5	-218
Saturday, December 7th
Iowa State	10-2	32	50.3%	-1.0		-115
Arizona State	10-2	33	49.7%	+1.0	50.5	-105
Ohio	9-3	30	45.6%	-1.0		-110
Miami (OH)	8-4	34	54.4%	+1.0	45.5	-110
Texas	11-1	34	58.0%	-1.5		-118
Georgia	10-2	30	42.0%	+1.5	49.5	-102
Marshall	9-3	34	42.0%	+3.5		+140
Louisiana	10-2	36	58.0%	-3.5	58.5	-166
Southern Methodist	11-1	35	53.3%	+1.5		even
Clemson	9-3	36	46.7%	-1.5	54.5	-120
Penn State	11-1	28	46.2%	+3.0		+124
Oregon	12-0	30	53.8%	-3.0	51.5	-148

Sunbelt Coaches Aggregate Adjusted Win Percentage

                                                                   

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

For the Sunbelt this year Shawn Clark from App State has the highest adjusted winning percentage with 64.3%. Clark is one of the longest tenured coaches in the Sunbelt going into his 5th year there. 

Note: Neither Bob Chesney or Dell McGee have an FBS win or loss which is why they're fields are incomplete. 

Sun Belt Coaches	Team	W	L	W Pct
Bob Chesney	JMU	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Dell McGee	GA State	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Shawn Clark	App State	29.8	16.5	64.3%
Tim Beck	Coastal Carolina	4.0	2.5	61.5%
G.J. Kinne	Texas State	4.0	2.5	61.5%
Major Applewhite	S. Alabama	5.8	3.9	59.7%
Charles Huff	Marshall	18.5	14.0	56.9%
Clay Helton	GSU	37.1	29.3	55.9%
Butch Jones	Ark St	61.5	50.0	55.2%
Bryant Vincent	ULM	1.8	1.5	53.8%
Michael Desormeaux	Louisiana	9.3	10.5	46.8%
Ricky Rahne	Old Dominion	12.0	19.5	38.1%
Will Hall	Southern Miss	11.5	19.5	37.1%
Gerad Parker	Troy	0.0	0.8	0.0%

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Year End Rankings for the Sunbelt Conference

 The end of the year rankings are out for the Sunbelt Conference. James Madison and Troy kept their positions in 1st and 2nd despite losing their bowl games. South Alabama moved up to 3rd after their impressive showing against Eastern Michigan. App State dropped one despite their win over Miami (OH). Texas State gained one spot after their win against Rice. Louisiana dropped one after a loss to Jacksonville State. Georgia State came up four spots after impressively beating Utah State. Georgia Southern dopped one after their loss. Finally Marshall dropped 3 spots after a disappointing loss to UTSA. 

Aggregate Predictions December 18th-22nd

 

The Aggregate predictions for next week. The Aggregate likes most of the favorites, but is split on Georgia Tech and Central Florida. The Aggregate also likes Syracuse by 13 over USF despite the Vegas line being just 3.5.