Champ Week Predictions

 Champ week Predictions for the Aggregate. The Aggregate mainly likes the favorites this week with only one exception in the median prediction model and an entirely different exception in the mean prediction model. All the teams are very well matched with only one reaching into the 60%. 

The one exception to the favorite for the Median prediction model, which has been the more accurate model, is SMU. The Mustangs are 11-1 and playing for the ACC title in their very first year in the conference. The season data tells us that SMU should beat Clemson 53.3% of the time. That's not a big advantage, but it is some. The Aggregate actually likes SMU even more than the 53.3% if the game was played at a true neutral site, but with the game in Charlotte it's giving Clemson a close to home field advantage that helps them be more in contention. Without a homefield advantage SMU's chance to win rises to 56.2% and the mean prediction (score) changes to liking the Ponies to win. 

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The exception to the favorite in the mean (score) prediction is the Arizona State Sun Devils. The mean prediction likes the Sun Devils by 1.4 points. This is in contrast to the median prediction which marks Iowa State as the favorite with a 50.3% chance to win. The mean prediction actually give Arizona State a 54.8% chance to win. Standard deviation is a large part of the mean prediction and the biggest reason it likes Arizona State is because of their low end standard deviation. While both Arizona State's top end and bottom end standard deviation are better than Iowa State's it's at the bottom end that the biggest difference occurs. If that was hard to follow basically the data tells us that the Sun Devils are noticeably better in their worst performances this year than Iowa State is and that makes them a slight favorite. 

Almost all games are a coin flip prediction although we'll point out that when the Aggregate says you have a 50% chance or better teams are winning 62.9% of the time. 

Championship Week CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Friday, December 6th
Western Kentucky	8-4	36	44.4%	+1.5		-102
Jacksonville State	8-4	40	55.6%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Tulane	9-3	42	59.2%	-4.0		-170
Army	10-1	37	40.8%	+4.0	48.5	+142
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-2	39	39.1%	+5.5		+180
Boise State	11-1	42	60.9%	-5.5	58.5	-218
Saturday, December 7th
Iowa State	10-2	32	50.3%	-1.0		-115
Arizona State	10-2	33	49.7%	+1.0	50.5	-105
Ohio	9-3	30	45.6%	-1.0		-110
Miami (OH)	8-4	34	54.4%	+1.0	45.5	-110
Texas	11-1	34	58.0%	-1.5		-118
Georgia	10-2	30	42.0%	+1.5	49.5	-102
Marshall	9-3	34	42.0%	+3.5		+140
Louisiana	10-2	36	58.0%	-3.5	58.5	-166
Southern Methodist	11-1	35	53.3%	+1.5		even
Clemson	9-3	36	46.7%	-1.5	54.5	-120
Penn State	11-1	28	46.2%	+3.0		+124
Oregon	12-0	30	53.8%	-3.0	51.5	-148

Week 14 Friday Predictions

 Week 14 Friday Predictions. The Aggregate has predicted three upsets on the day. 

The Aggregate likes Minnesota over Wisconsin in the battle for Paul Bunyan's axe. Vegas announced the Badgers as a two point favorite when the betting line was announced. The Aggregate data tells us that the Badgers have a higher ceiling than the Gophers, but overall the Gophers have been more consistent on the season and don't have as bad of performances as Wisconsin which is why the Aggregate gives Minnesota the slight edge. 

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The next upset the Aggregate likes is Navy winning at East Carolina. Vegas installed ECU as a one point favorite coming into the week. The Pirates have excelled since firing their head coach, but the Aggregate see's Navy as just too powerful to go in and lose giving them a 62.9% chance to win. The Aggregate data also does not like the loss of ECU's head coach. Statistically speaking the loss of a head coach is almost always harmful to a teams overall strength. ECU is trying to be the exception to that rule. 

Lastly the Aggregate likes Texas State to go to South Alabama and win. Both of these teams have been up and down this year, but the Aggregate gives the slight edge to Texas State in this game. The data tells us that the Jaguars have been slightly more consistent than the Bobcats this season, but the Bobcats have a better point differential against a harder schedule. 

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Week Fourteen CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score Prediction	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Tuesday, November 26th
Kent State	0-11	17	15.3%	+21.5		+900
Buffalo	7-4	42	84.7%	-21.5	50.5	-1600
Toledo	7-4	36	79.2%	-9.5		-310
Akron	3-8	20	20.8%	+9.5	48.5	+250
Thursday, November 28th
Memphis	9-2	30	24.3%	+12.5		+380
Tulane	9-2	46	75.7%	-12.5	56.5	-500
Friday, November 29th
Ball State	3-8	23	16.7%	+13.5		+425
Ohio	8-3	40	83.3%	-13.5	53	-575
Miami (OH)	7-4	24	43.8%	+3.0		+124
Bowling Green	7-4	30	56.3%	-3.0	43	-148
Oklahoma State	3-8	26	27.1%	+16.5		+525
Colorado	8-3	41	72.9%	-16.5	64.5	-750
Minnesota	6-5	34	59.0%	+2.0		+105
Wisconsin	5-6	30	41.0%	-2.0	44	-125
Oregon State	5-6	21	18.1%	+18.5		+675
Boise State	10-1	42	81.9%	-18.5	55.5	-1050
Navy	7-3	41	62.9%	+1.0		-115
East Carolina	7-4	31	37.1%	-1.0	56.5	-105
Texas State	6-5	39	58.3%	+1.0		-105
South Alabama	6-5	33	41.7%	-1.0	62.5	-115
Mississippi State	2-9	13	4.9%	+27.5		+1400
Mississippi	8-3	45	95.1%	-27.5	61.5	-3200
Liberty	8-3	21	37.5%	-1.0		-130
Sam Houston	8-3	30	62.5%	+1.0	47	+110
Utah State	4-7	37	38.2%	+7.0		+180
Colorado State	7-4	40	61.8%	-7.0	60.5	-218
Stanford	3-8	34	42.4%	+1.5		even
San Jose State	6-5	36	57.6%	-1.5	54.5	-120
Nebraska	6-5	24	29.9%	+4.0		+154
Iowa	7-4	37	70.1%	-4.0	39	-185
Georgia Tech	7-4	20	22.2%	+20.5		+800
Georgia	9-2	34	77.8%	-20.5	54.5	-1350
Utah	4-7	31	33.3%	+4.5		+240
Central Florida	4-7	40	66.7%	-4.5	48.5	-298