The Aggregate's week five picks are out and that means it's time for our inaugural betting guide. Here are the games the Aggregate is betting on or at least considering for week five.
Betting Breakdown:
Upset of the week: 4.8%
Games of the week (9): 70.9% (7.9%/game)
Parlay: 28% (14%/per parlay)
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Upset of the Week
Our upset of the week will give you a team that is plus money and still favored to win according to the Aggregate median predictor. This week we had four games we considered, but are putting money on Alabama over Georgia. When the game originally came out a money line bet on Alabama was getting +136. This combined with our predictor giving them a 68.8% chance to win is just too good to pass up.
Pick: Alabama over UGA +136 68.8%CTW
Other upset candidates:
Washington State over Boise State +270 55% CTW
Washington over Rutgers +114 55% CTW
Fresno State over UNLV +164 50%CTW
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Game Picks
Every game that the Aggregate is picking this week is a 90% or higher chance to win. It is abnormal to see this many games with betting lines that the algorithm likes this much. We broke it down into two categories. 100% chance to win meaning the Aggregate thinks there is no chance they lose and 90% chance to win meaning the algorithm thinks their chances are 90% or better to win. So far this season teams are 13-1 (92.9%) with 100% chance to win and 16-2 (88.9%) when the Aggregate sees them as a 90% chance to win.
100% Chance to Win
Picks:
Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech -1200
Nebraska over Purdue -340
Ole Miss over Kentucky -1350
UCF over Colorado -700
Ohio State over Michigan State -5000
Non Picks: (The Aggregate couldn't get a betting line for these next games, but if you can it would be worth it.)
Syracuse over Holy Cross
Texas over Mississippi State
Florida Atlantic over Wagner
Kennesaw State over UT Martin
90% Chance to Win
Picks:
Memphis over MTSU -1800 (96%)
Utah over Arizona -455 (95%)
Miami (OH) over Umass -750 (95%)
Bowling Green over ODU -360 (93.8%)
Non Picks: (But still over 90%)
USC over Wisconsin -675 (93.8%)
Army over Temple -520 (90%)
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Parlays
We divided up our parlay pick this week. Splitting the money between a pick on just the 100% games and a pick that includes all 90-100% games.
100% Parlay-5 games -115
Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech
Nebraska over Purdue
Ole Miss over Kentucky
UCF over Colorado
Ohio State over Michigan State
90% or Higher Parlay-11 games +360
Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech
Nebraska over Purdue
Ole Miss over Kentucky
UCF over Colorado
Ohio State over Michigan State
Memphis over MTSU
Utah over Arizona
Miami (OH) over Umass
Bowling Green over ODU
USC over Wisconsin
Army over Temple
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