I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually are as it does not factor in a multitude of issues including environment, player talent, competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for.
This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.
The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.
With all that being said this is the second in this series. This week we look at the MAC conference. Miami (OH) finished on top of the MAC last year, but it is Ohio coach Tim Albin who has the best adjusted win percentage. Albin has an adjusted win percentage of 65.2%. The Bobcats went 10-3 last year and have fared well under him in three years. Albin's worst year there was his first which of course the adjusted win percentage devalues.
