Adjusted Winning Percentage for Big 10 Coaches

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

Moore at 

The coach with the best adjusted winning percentage for the Big 10 is technically Sherrone Moore. Who as an interim coach won one game. You can see in the chart below that the Adjusted metric only credits Moore with 12.5% of that win, but with no losses that gives him a 100% winning percentage. Beyond him Ryan Day has the highest winning percentage despite having a worse adjusted win percentage than traditional. 

The other coach with a worse adjusted win percentage than traditional was Lincoln Riley. Both Riley and Day have very good winning percentages, but started their coaching careers in very successful programs. As such the adjusted winning percentage see's both as not quite as good as their traditional win percentage would suggest. 

The other most notable thing for Big 10 coaches in the adjustable win percentage is the amount of coaches that have a much better  adjusted than traditional win rate. The Big 10 has six coaches with over a 5% better rate. Other large conferences have zero coaches with that large of difference. What does that mean? Mostly that those coaches are a bit undervalued in traditional winning percentage. 

The largest of those differences belongs to Nebraska's Matt Rhule with an adjusted rate of 61.7%. That's 10.7% higher than his traditional. Rhule is of course in his second year with Nebraska and seems to be on the rise. The Cornhuskers played a ton of close games last year and 5-7 was an improvement on seasons before.  

Here are the total results:

Big 10 Coaches	Team	W	L	Adjusted W Pct	Traditional W Pct	Difference
DeShaun Foster	UCLA	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!	0.0%	#DIV/0!
Sherrone Moore	Michigan	0.1	0.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%
Ryan Day	Ohio State	46.9	7.5	86.2%	87.5%	-1.3%
Curt Cignetti	Indiana	15.0	2.5	85.7%	82.6%	3.1%
Dan Lanning	Oregon	17.0	3.5	82.9%	81.5%	1.4%
LIncoln Riley	USC	53.5	14.0	79.3%	80.4%	-1.1%
Luke Fickell	Wisconsin	53.8	15.8	77.3%	69.6%	7.7%
James Franklin	Penn State	88.8	37.5	70.3%	67.5%	2.8%
PJ Fleck	Minnesota	66.0	35.8	64.9%	58.8%	6.1%
Kirk Ferentz	Iowa	192.0	105.8	64.5%	62.2%	2.3%
Matt Rhule	Nebraska	38.3	23.8	61.7%	51.0%	10.7%
David Braun	Northwestern	2.0	1.3	61.5%	61.5%	0.0%
Bret Bielema	Illinois	89.5	58.3	60.6%	59.9%	0.7%
Jonathan Smith	Michigan State	31	25.75	54.6%	49.3%	5.3%
Greg Schiano	Rutgers	78.3	78.0	50.1%	47.8%	2.3%
Jedd Fisch	Washington	15.6	15.6	50.0%	43.6%	6.4%
Mike Locksley	Maryland	27.4	35.4	43.6%	34.4%	9.2%
Ryan Walters	Purdue	2.0	4.0	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%

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Final Aggregate Top 25 and 1 Rankings

Final Aggregate rankings for the 2023 college football season. Biggest movers: Notre Dame up 5 after a big win against a depleted Oregon State team and SMU down 4 after losing with their 3rd string quarterback against Boston College. Comeback tomorrow for each conference breakdown. 

 

Michigan and Washington Set to Square Off in National Championship

Michigan and Washington Set to Square Off in National Championship

By: John Smith

As the college football season comes to a crescendo, all eyes are on the impending clash between the #1 Michigan Wolverines and the #2 Washington Huskies in the national championship. Both teams boast immaculate records, and their journey to this pinnacle promises an electrifying showdown on the grandest stage of college football.

Team Records:

• Michigan: 14-0

• Washington: 14-0

These two undefeated juggernauts have navigated a challenging season to earn the right to vie for the national championship, setting the stage for an epic battle.

Points Per Game (PPG):

• Michigan: 36

• Washington: 37.6

Michigan and Washington feature high-scoring offenses. Although the Huskies boast an explosive offense, Michigan averages just 1.6 less points per game.

Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):

• Michigan: 10.2 

• Washington: 24.1

Michigan's defense has been outstanding and helped them immensely in their semi-final game with Bama. That defense has allowed only 10.2 points per game this season. Washington faces the challenge of breaking through this defensive fortress to put points on the board while also trying to limit the physical Michigan offense. 

Best Wins:

• Michigan: 49-0 victory at #77 Michigan State

• Washington: 56-19 triumph vs. #47 Boise State

According to the Aggregate each teams best win came early in the season. For Michigan it was an absolute drubbing of rival Michigan State at Michigan State. The Wolverines gave no hope to the Spartans who the Aggregate rated as the 77th best team at that time. 

For Washington their best game came against Boise State. The Huskies handed the Broncos their worst loss of the season 56-19. Boise was ranked as the 47th best team at the time and went on to win the Mountain West conference. 

Worst Games:

• Michigan: 31-6 victory vs. #120 Bowling Green

• Washington: 15-7 win vs. #105 Arizona State

Despite their unblemished records, both teams have faced challenges in narrower victories against lower-ranked opponents. 

For the Wolverines their worst game performance as rated by the Aggregate came against Bowling Green. Michigan still won 31-6, but the Aggregate was unimpressed with only a 25 point margin against the 120th best team in the country while playing in the confines of the Big House.

For Washington their worst game was late in the season and it inspired many pundits including the Aggregate to pick against them in the Pac 12 championship and the CFP semi-final. The Huskies beat 105th ranked Arizona State 15-8. Somehow the Sun Devils were able to keep the potent Washington offense to just 15 points.  

Aggregate Ratings:

• Michigan: 52.3

• Washington: 44.7

Michigan enters the championship with a higher aggregate rating, but Washington has defied the Aggregate in it’s last two games. The Huskies are known for playing one score games and that has kept their Aggregate rating low, but their also known for winning those games. 

Predicted Score:

• Michigan: 30

• Washington: 23

The Aggregate likes Michigan to win by 7. It believes the Wolverines defense will keep Washington in check just enough to win. 

Vegas Odds:

• Michigan: -4.5 (Spread), -195 (Moneyline), Over/Under 55.5

• Washington: +4.5 (Spread), +165 (Moneyline), Over/Under 55.5

The Vegas odds suggest a closely contested matchup, with Michigan favored by a narrow margin. The Aggregate likes Michigan to win and cover with it’s own line being for Michigan at -7.6. However, the Aggregate is 93-106-3 on the season at accurately choosing the right spread team.

The moneyline is set at -195 for Michigan and the Aggregate really likes that bet. Not only does it see Michigan as the favorite, but it thinks the Wolverines have a 62.9 % chance to win. Unlike the spread the Aggregate has a proven track record for picking the moneyline correct at 72.8% of the time. It is 158-59 in moneyline bets this season. 

The Over/Under indicates expectations for a moderately high-scoring affair. The Aggregate likes the under in this case, but again it does not have a good track record in picking over/under. In its current prediction model it is 50-54. 

Consistency and Expectation:

• Michigan Consistency Rating: 45.9, Rank: 44th

• Washington Consistency Rating: 54.1, Rank: 78th

The Aggregate’s consistency rating is based on how far apart a teams best and worst performances were during the season. The less far the more consistent that team has been and the more likely that team is to reasonably deliver close to its expectation. This metric is not an evaluation of how good a team is. A consistently good team will score well in this measure, but so will a consistently bad team. Teams that are inconsistent may have more good games, but are more likely to also have some clunkers. 

Michigan’s consistency ranking this year is 44th which puts them in the top third of college teams. Washington’s ranking is 78th which puts them in the middle third of college teams. 

Performance Against Preseason Expectation:

• Michigan: -0.5

• Washington: -3.2

The performance against preseason expectations metric is derived based on a teams rating at the beginning of the season Both teams in this case have been very close to their preseason expectations with Washington being a little lower in rating because of their propensity to play close games. 

The Cheating Angle:

Michigan faced adversity this year with a suspension for cheating, but the incident has served to galvanize the team. The Wolverines have used this setback as motivation, turning a negative situation into a unifying force that has propelled them to the national championship. Most people wouldn’t see it this was, but the team has seemingly turned people’s outcry about the cheating into an us vs. the world kind of scenario even wearing Free Harbaugh shirts when their head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended for three games. 

Physicality and Awards:

Michigan is noted for its physical style of play, a characteristic that has been a key component of their success. It will be interesting to see how Washington handles the Wolverines physicality on both offense and defense. The Huskies are not known for their toughness, but their offensive line has been outstanding this year. In fact Washington's offensive line was recognized with the prestigious Joe Moore Award for being the best offensive line in the country, underscoring their prowess in the trenches.

As the Wolverines and Huskies prepare to clash in the national championship, fans can expect a thrilling contest between two powerhouse programs. This will be the last national championship played where only four teams were invited to the tournament. Will the Wolverines dominate the line and prove too much for the Huskies or will Washington’s passing attack wreak havoc and allow them to pull away? What do you think? 

This article was written with the assistance of Chat GPT. 

College Football Playoff Semi-final Preview Texas vs. Washington

As the college football world eagerly awaits the playoff semifinals, the matchup between the #3 Texas Longhorns and the #2 Washington Huskies is generating significant buzz. With both teams boasting impressive records and statistical strengths, this showdown promises to be a battle of titans.

Team Records:

• Texas: 12-1

• Washington: 13-0

The Longhorns, with just one loss on their record to their rival Oklahoma. They face an undefeated Washington team, setting the stage for an intense semi-final clash.

Points Per Game (PPG):

• Texas: 36.2

• Washington: 37.7

Both teams showcase potent offenses, capable of putting up substantial points. The Huskies hold a slight advantage in average points per game, highlighting their scoring prowess.

Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):

• Texas: 17.5

• Washington: 23.6

Texas boasts a stingy defense, allowing only 17.5 points per game. Washington, while solid defensively, concedes a slightly higher average, suggesting potential opportunities for the Longhorns to capitalize.

Best Wins:

• Texas: 57-7 victory vs. #35 Texas Tech

• Washington: 56-19 triumph vs. #47 Boise State

Texas’s biggest victory according to the Aggregate was a 57-7 shellacking they gave to rival Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were rated the 35th best team in the country at that time and the Longhorns had no trouble with them. Washington’s largest victory came early in the year a 56-19 beat down of non-power 5 team Boise State. The Broncos at the time were ranked as the Aggregate’s 47th best team in the country.  

Worst Games:

• Texas: 31-24 victory at #58 Houston

• Washington: 15-7 win vs. #105 Arizona State

Despite their impressive records, both teams have faced challenges in narrow victories against lower-ranked opponents. Texas had just a 7 point victory at #58 Houston who finished the season 4-8. Washington struggled to get by Arizona State who was ranked 105th in the country at that point. The Huskies won by just 8 points over a team that finished the season 3-9. 

Aggregate Ratings:

• Texas: 48.8

• Washington: 44.0

Texas holds a slight edge in the aggregate rating making them a 4.8 favorite in this game. 

Predicted Score:

• Texas: 30

• Washington: 24

The Aggregate sees Texas as slightly better than the Huskies. Predicted score is determined by teams points per game, points allowed per game and each teams Aggregate rating. 

Vegas Odds:

• Texas: -4 (Spread), -185 (Moneyline), Over/Under 63.5

• Washington: +4 (Spread), +155 (Moneyline), Over/Under 63.5

The Vegas odds indicate a closely matched game, with Texas favored by a narrow margin. The Over/Under suggests a high-scoring affair.

Chance to Win:

• Texas: 57.1%

• Washington: 42.9%

The Aggregate ran 196 simulations between both teams and found that Texas won 112 times Washington 84 times. According to the Aggregate Texas has a 57 percent chance to win. 

Consistency and Expectation:

• Texas Consistency Rating: 44.1, Rank: 38th

• Washington Consistency Rating: 54.1, Rank: 82nd

Texas boasts a lower consistency rating, reflecting their ability to deliver consistent performances throughout the season. This metric does not always show how good a team is, instead how often they perform at the same level. 

Performance Against Preseason Expectation:

• Texas: -2

• Washington: -3.2

Neither team has quite met their Aggregate preseason expectation, but they’re not far off from it. In fact both are better than their preseason rank: Texas 8th:5th, Washington 17th:12th. 

As the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies prepare to face off in this highly anticipated clash, college football fans can expect a thrilling contest with playoff implications on the line. The outcome of this semifinal promises to shape the narrative of the postseason and determine which team will advance to compete for the national championship.