SEC End of Season Rankings

 

The end of year rankings for the 2024 SEC season. The SEC had more parody than ever in the conference and without a dominant team at the top many believe they are no longer the strongest conference, but the numbers tell us that top to bottom the SEC is still the best league. 

Best Team: 

The Texas Longhorns are our #1 rated team in the SEC. The Longhorns finished the season 13-3 and 7-1 in the SEC. They were defeated in the semifinals of the college football playoff to eventual national champion Ohio State. Texas averaged 32 points a game and allowed 15. The difference for them was a lack of offense in losses. In their losses the Longhorns only averaged 16 points. Texas's strength of schedule this season was 7th. 

Biggest Surprise: 

The Vanderbilt Commodores was one of the Aggregates biggest surprise teams in the entire country. Vanderbilt started the season ranked 107th in our preseason rankings and finished 41st. That still only landed them 14th in the SEC, but the Commodores were a much improved team. Vanderbilt was +3.6 in point differential against the 31st hardest schedule in the country going 7-6 and 3-5 in the SEC. 

Biggest Disappointment:  

There is no doubt the Sooners were the biggest disappointment in the SEC this year. Oklahoma was projected to finish 4th by the data and many had them in the conversation for an SEC title, but OU could never get their offense off the ground. The Sooners averaged only 24 points a game and if you take out their two blowouts against Maine and Temple it was only 18 a game.  They finished 12th in the SEC in our rankings and 35th nationally. 

SEC Rankings
Rank	Team	Record	Conf Record	Rating	National Rank	Pre Seas Rnk
1	Texas	13-3	7-1	48.6	3	5
2	Mississippi	10-3	5-3	48.3	4	6
3	Alabama	9-4	5-3	45.7	6	16
4	Tennessee	10-3	6-2	44.7	8	19
5	Georgia	11-3	6-2	44.1	10	2
6	Florida	8-5	4-4	37.9	15	20
7	South Carolina	9-4	5-3	37.9	16	38
8	Louisiana State	9-4	5-3	37.6	18	18
9	Texas A&M	8-5	5-3	36.3	23	10
10	Arkansas	7-6	3-5	32.6	32	51
11	Auburn	5-7	2-6	32.0	33	29
12	Oklahoma	6-7	2-6	31.6	35	9
13	Missouri	10-3	5-3	31.2	36	21
14	Vanderbilt	7-6	3-5	30.3	41	107
15	Kentucky	4-8	1-7	23.9	62	37
16	Mississippi State	2-10	0-8	20.9	68	77

End of Year Top 25 Rankings

End of year top 25 rankings. After the bowl season teams moved around a lot. Ohio State climbs to the top. Arizona State was our biggest climber. Colorado had our biggest drop. We have five teams in the exact same spot as the AP and we have three teams ranked that the AP couldn't find space for. Florida is our biggest disagreement with the AP ranking 18 spots higher in our ranking than theirs. 

It doesn't always happen with the Aggregate rankings and the eventual national championship, but this year the algorithm agrees with what happened on the field. Ohio State was rated the nations best team according to the data with Notre Dame second. The Buckeyes were highly rated all season by the numbers, but really came into their own at the end. Ohio State started ranked 4th in our system and never went above 9th on the season. 

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Arizona State was our biggest climber this week rising eight spots. The Sun Devils showed a lot in the college football playoffs and were one of the years best stories. We had them ranked as the 85th best team in the country to start the year and their change of 72 places was the best for any team this season. 

The Colorado Buffaloes had the most precipitous drop this week. The Buffaloes retained almost all their star players for their matchup with BYU and the Aggregate had them as a 4 point favorite, but BYU took it to them winning the Alamo bowl 36-14. 

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We have three teams ranked in our final 25 that the AP couldn't find space for even in their receiving votes. The numbers tell us that Iowa, USC and Minnesota all our top 25 teams in the country even though their records are not as sexy. The Hawkeyes reason for being so high was some good wins against edge top 25 schools. They beat teams ranked 32, 28 and 25 by a combined 73 points. USC was helped by two things. The Trojans bookended their season with a victory over top 25 schools and then all of their losses sans Notre Dame were by single digits. Minnesota started the season 2-3, but finished the year 6-2 with wins over two top 25 schools. 

The numbers tell us that the Florida Gators are a much better team than 33rd in the country. The Gators went up as high as 53rd during the season, but their improved performance over the latter part of the season has us putting them all the way at 15th. Florida beat LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State and then Tulane to finish the season. State not withstanding those other wins were very impressive and moved Florida up high on our list.

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Ohio State	14-2	+2	53.3	1
2	Notre Dame	14-2	-1	51.8	2
3	Texas	13-3	-1	48.6	4
4	Mississippi	10-3	0	48.3	11
5	Penn State	13-3	+3	45.9	5
6	Alabama	9-4	-1	45.7	17
7	Oregon	13-1	0	45.1	3
8	Tennessee	10-3	-2	44.7	9
9	Indiana	11-2	0	44.5	10
10	Georgia	11-3	+1	44.1	6
11	Miami (FL)	10-3	-1	43.4	18
12	Louisville	9-4	0	39.4	28
13	Arizona State	11-3	+8	39.0	7
14	Clemson	10-4	+2	38.1	14
15	Florida	8-5	+7	37.9	33
16	South Carolina	9-4	-2	37.9	19
17	Iowa	8-5	-2	37.6	NR
18	Louisiana State	9-4	+1	37.6	27
19	Southern Methodist	11-3	-6	37.4	12
20	Southern California	7-6	-2	37.2	NR
21	Michigan	8-5	+3	36.9	29
22	Minnesota	8-5	+4	36.4	NR
23	Texas A&M	8-5	-3	36.3	35
24	Brigham Young	11-2	+4	35.9	13
25	Colorado	9-4	-8	35.5	25
134	Kent State	0-12	-	-16.0	NR

End of Season Top 25: Who Should Be in the CFP

  

Final Top 25 Rankings for the Aggregate. The Aggregate still disagrees with the CFP committee for who should make the college football playoff. We make the statistical case below for who should have been in and how the bracket should actually be seeded. 

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Who the Aggregate Has Out

Penn State, SMU, Boise State, gone. The Aggregate doesn't evaluate any of these teams as the top 8 after the automatic qualifiers get in. In fairness it does think Penn State is one of the top 12 teams, but in the current CFP format where conference winners get automatic births they just come up short of  making the cut. SMU is almost in the top 12 at 13th. Boise is no where close, but is just one spot below the non power 4 team the Aggregate actually likes.

Who the Aggregate Has In

The teams the Aggregate would put in over the three above? Ole Miss, Alabama and Tulane. The Rebels and Crimson Tide have been ranked in the top 5 all year. Despite their losses the data tells us that they belong with these teams. Tulane on the other hand has been ranked above Boise for awhile in the Aggregate. If they had won their championship game we think they would have had a real case, but after losing the Aggregate still has them ranked above the Broncos though only by one spot. 

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The Comparison

Lets breakdown these teams and get to the bottom of why the data tells us that they're actually better teams than the one's that got in. 

Team	Ole Miss	Penn State	Alabama	SMU	Tulane	Boise State
Agg Rank	4th	10th	5th	13th	36th	37th
Agg Rating	47.4	44.3	46.9	38.6	31.5	31.2
SDev Range	32.8-61.9	34-54.6	28.2-65.7	20.0-57.3	14.2-48.8	18.3-44.2
SOS	56th	23rd	18th	63rd	86th	87th
Point Differential	+23.8	+17.0	+18.3	+17.6	+17.5	+17.2
Top 25 record	3-2	2-2	2-1	1-1	0-2	0-1

 Each of the teams the Aggregate wants to put in the playoff is highlighted in green and the teams it doesn't are highlighted in red. The teams ratings are similar although the non power 4 schools are quite a bit lower than the power 4 we'll get into that in seeding. The biggest difference in the teams ratings comes with SMU. The Mustangs are a 38.6. That means against the average FBS team the Aggregate expects SMU to score 38 points. That's not bad, but it's quite different than Alabama's 46.9. 

Looking at each teams standard deviation a pattern appears with what the committee seemed to value in choosing the playoff teams. First, the Aggregate finds a teams standard deviation which in layman's terms is basically the scale a team has performed on this season. In this case it's one standard deviation so 68% of a teams performances through the year are represented by this scale. The thing that stands out when comparing the standard deviation ranges is that two of the teams that the playoff committee choose have a higher floor than two of the teams the Aggregate favored. In this case those teams were Penn State and Boise State. Both had higher floors than Ole Miss and Tulane. The one place where this didn't occur was SMU and Alabama. Just another reason why Alabama is actually the better team than SMU. The Aggregate however is not only concerned with a teams floor, but it's entire scale and all of the teams that it likes have better scales than the teams that got in over them. 

SOS, point differential and top 25 record are categories were going to look at together. Penn State and Alabama both lead the category ranked 23rd and 18th respectively. Again this adds to the case for Alabama, but maybe not Ole Miss. The Rebels are ranked 56th in strength of schedule. The difference to the Aggregate and why it still rates Ole Miss higher than those other two programs is it's point differential. The Rebels point differential is almost 7 points higher than that of Penn State. It also helps that they have a 3-2 record against top 25 schools so when they played good competition they showed they belonged. 

Seeding

Let's look at what the Seeding should look like with the current teams: 

12. Boise State

5. Tennessee

4. Oregon

Bye

9. SMU

8. Penn State

1. Notre Dame

Bye

11. Clemson

6. Georgia

3. Ohio State

Bye

10. Arizona State

7. Indiana

2. Texas

Bye

This is the way the Aggregate believes the tournament should actually be seeded. This would set up a couple of potential rematches. If Boise could beat Tennessee than they would get another crack at Oregon. Georgia and Clemson would also play each other again a rematch of the first week game that saw Georgia beat the Tigers 34-3. Then you would have a battle of newcomers in Arizona State and Indiana. 

Now let's look at the bracket that the Aggregate would have made: 

12. Tulane

5. Alabama

4. Ole Miss

Bye

9. Indiana

8. Georgia

1. Notre Dame

Bye

11. Clemson

6. Oregon

3. Ohio State

Bye

10. Arizona State

7. Tennessee

2. Texas

Bye

Indiana can once again face Notre Dame, but this time they have to win at Georgia to get that chance. Clemson would get to travel all the way to Eugene to play their first game. If the Ducks won that game it would set up a rematch of Oregon and Ohio State. With these teams records it would be hard to justify a bracket like this, but in order of competitive games the Aggregate likes this the best.  

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	CFP Ranking
1	Notre Dame	11-1	0	52.6	5
2	Texas	11-2	0	50.1	3
3	Ohio State	10-2	0	49.6	6
4	Mississippi	9-3	0	47.4	14
5	Alabama	9-3	0	46.9	11
6	Oregon	13-0	+1	46.2	1
7	Tennessee	10-2	-1	46.0	7
8	Georgia	11-2	+3	44.5	2
9	Indiana	11-1	0	44.4	8
10	Penn State	11-2	-2	44.3	4
11	Miami (FL)	10-2	-1	44.3	13
12	Louisville	8-4	0	40.1	NR
13	Southern Methodist	11-2	0	38.6	10
14	South Carolina	9-3	0	38.6	15
15	Iowa	8-4	0	38.4	NR
16	Arizona State	11-2	+5	38.2	12
17	Clemson	10-3	-1	38.1	16
18	Colorado	9-3	-1	37.2	23
19	Southern California	6-6	-1	36.9	NR
20	Louisiana State	8-4	-1	36.7	NR
21	Texas A&M	8-4	-1	36.5	NR
22	Florida	7-5	0	36.5	NR
23	Baylor	8-4	0	36.1	NR
24	Michigan	7-5	0	35.7	NR
25	Virginia Tech	6-6	0	35.5	NR
37	Boise State	12-1	+2	31.2	9