This is a metric we keep each week, but had not published until now. The following is a breakdown of each conferences strength based on the average rating of their teams in the Aggregate. Also included is the average rank of their teams although it is not included as part of the formula for ranking them.
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Week 4 conference rankings for college football. No real surprises here. This is our first conference rankings of the year and things don't look much different from last year except for the subtraction of the Pac 12. The Mountain West is also now rated higher than the Sun Belt.
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I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for.
This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.
The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.
Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.
You've got two veteran coaches in the Big 12 at the top of the Adjusted winning percentage, but it's Mike Gundy from Oklahoma State who has a slightly better percentage than Kyle Whittingham from Utah. Gundy came out with a 69.5% rate, about two points higher than Whittingham who sits in second.
The most interesting coaches on the list are likely Lance Leipold at Kansas and Gus Malzahn at UCF. Leipold has a much better Adjusted rate, 63.2%, than has traditional rate. The metric suggests that Leipold is much better than a .500 coach. Malzahn on the other hand has a lower adjusted winning percentage than his traditional suggesting that he's come into some favorable situations and isn't as good as his 65.2% mark. It should be noted though he's not far from it, still ranking 4th in the Big 12.
Check where your coach ranks below.
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The end of the year Aggregate rankings for the Big 12 are out. The conference experienced movement in the middle of the rankings after the bowl season. West Virginia got the biggest boost after their win over North Carolina. Texas Tech moved up one after beating Cal. TCU got a boost as well although that had nothing to do with the Horned Frogs and everything to do with an Iowa State loss. The same was true for UCF who dropped after beating Georgia Tech.
As the college football world eagerly awaits the playoff semifinals, the matchup between the #3 Texas Longhorns and the #2 Washington Huskies is generating significant buzz. With both teams boasting impressive records and statistical strengths, this showdown promises to be a battle of titans.
Team Records:
Texas: 12-1
Washington: 13-0
The Longhorns, with just one loss on their record to their rival Oklahoma. They face an undefeated Washington team, setting the stage for an intense semi-final clash.
Points Per Game (PPG):
Texas: 36.2
Washington: 37.7
Both teams showcase potent offenses, capable of putting up substantial points. The Huskies hold a slight advantage in average points per game, highlighting their scoring prowess.
Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):
Texas: 17.5
Washington: 23.6
Texas boasts a stingy defense, allowing only 17.5 points per game. Washington, while solid defensively, concedes a slightly higher average, suggesting potential opportunities for the Longhorns to capitalize.
Best Wins:
Texas: 57-7 victory vs. #35 Texas Tech
Washington: 56-19 triumph vs. #47 Boise State
Texas’s biggest victory according to the Aggregate was a 57-7 shellacking they gave to rival Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were rated the 35th best team in the country at that time and the Longhorns had no trouble with them. Washington’s largest victory came early in the year a 56-19 beat down of non-power 5 team Boise State. The Broncos at the time were ranked as the Aggregate’s 47th best team in the country.
Worst Games:
Texas: 31-24 victory at #58 Houston
Washington: 15-7 win vs. #105 Arizona State
Despite their impressive records, both teams have faced challenges in narrow victories against lower-ranked opponents. Texas had just a 7 point victory at #58 Houston who finished the season 4-8. Washington struggled to get by Arizona State who was ranked 105th in the country at that point. The Huskies won by just 8 points over a team that finished the season 3-9.
Aggregate Ratings:
Texas: 48.8
Washington: 44.0
Texas holds a slight edge in the aggregate rating making them a 4.8 favorite in this game.
Predicted Score:
Texas: 30
Washington: 24
The Aggregate sees Texas as slightly better than the Huskies. Predicted score is determined by teams points per game, points allowed per game and each teams Aggregate rating.
Vegas Odds:
Texas: -4 (Spread), -185 (Moneyline), Over/Under 63.5
Washington: +4 (Spread), +155 (Moneyline), Over/Under 63.5
The Vegas odds indicate a closely matched game, with Texas favored by a narrow margin. The Over/Under suggests a high-scoring affair.
Chance to Win:
Texas: 57.1%
Washington: 42.9%
The Aggregate ran 196 simulations between both teams and found that Texas won 112 times Washington 84 times. According to the Aggregate Texas has a 57 percent chance to win.
Consistency and Expectation:
Texas Consistency Rating: 44.1, Rank: 38th
Washington Consistency Rating: 54.1, Rank: 82nd
Texas boasts a lower consistency rating, reflecting their ability to deliver consistent performances throughout the season. This metric does not always show how good a team is, instead how often they perform at the same level.
Performance Against Preseason Expectation:
Texas: -2
Washington: -3.2
Neither team has quite met their Aggregate preseason expectation, but they’re not far off from it. In fact both are better than their preseason rank: Texas 8th:5th, Washington 17th:12th.
As the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies prepare to face off in this highly anticipated clash, college football fans can expect a thrilling contest with playoff implications on the line. The outcome of this semifinal promises to shape the narrative of the postseason and determine which team will advance to compete for the national championship.
The Aggregate predicts one upset for bowl games on December 27th. North Carolina is almost a seven point underdog in the Duke's Mayo Bowl, but the Aggregate sees them as a six point favorite. Do you think the Tar Heels will pull it off?
Other surprises, the Aggregate sees 6-6 Virginia Tech as a favorite against 11-2 Tulane and 7-5 Texas A&M as much better than 9-4 Oklahoma State. Vegas agrees with the Aggregate on these games do you?
Aggregate predictions for Decebmer 26th. The Aggregate is picking one upset in the Rice Owls. The Owls are only 6-6 this season, but the Aggregate likes them by six points over Texas State. What is your opinion on these games?
The Aggregate see's two upsets in the first week of bowl matchups. It predicts (9-3) Ohio will upset favored (6-6) Georgia Southern by a score of 27-24. The Ealges are favored in the game by 3.5 points. The other upset the Aggregate predicts is the (8-4) Fresno State Bulldogs taking down the (10-4) New Mexico State Aggies 27-24. The Aggies are a 3 point favorite. What do you think about this weekend's matchups?
The Aggregate's "what if" championship week prediction. Did your team not play up to its potential this week? Or maybe they had a tougher schedule than the teams in playing in the championship game? Well this is the Aggregates "what if" prediction for each conference championship. Instead of taking the teams that actually made it to the game we took the teams that the Aggregate said were the best two teams in that conference and predicted what would happen if they played. Some games stayed the same. Some changed one opponent. The Aggregate believes the best team in the Mountain West got left out of the championship game.
The end of year rankings for the 2024 SEC season. The SEC had more parody than ever in the conference and without a dominant team at the t...
