SEC Coaches Adjusted Win Percentage

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

Best Coach

Kirby Smart leads the way for the SEC in adjusted win percentage at 88.2%. Smart is six percentage points higher than the next coach which is Kalen DeBoer. Smart began his tenure at Georgia with an eight win season, but since that point has only won less than 11 games once and that was in the Covid shortened season. 

Overrated/Underrated

The adjusted win percentage indicates Tennessee's Josh Heupel is the leagues most overrated coach. Heupel has a traditional win percentage of 73.3% which would be the 3rd best mark in the SEC, but his adjusted percentage is 3.5% lower. Now 69.8% is still a fantastic percentage, but it lowers him to 5th best in the SEC.

The metric feels that Oklahoma's Brent Venables is the most underrated coach. Venables and Oklahoma join the SEC this year and projections have them anywhere between the second tier and the second half of the SEC. This metric indicates that some might be sleeping on Venables ability as a head coach. Venables has a traditional win percentage of 61.5%, but his adjusted percentage is 5.2% higher than that.

SEC Coaches	Team	W	L	Adjusted W Pct	Traditional W Pct	Difference
Jeff Lebby	Mississippi State	0	0	#DIV/0!	0.00%	#DIV/0!
Kirby Smart	Georgia	78.75	10.5	88.2%	85.50%	2.7%
Kalen Deboer	Alabama	30	6.5	82.2%	80.40%	1.8%
Brian Kelly	LSU	142	48	74.7%	72.90%	1.8%
Billy Napier	Florida	37.25	15.75	70.3%	66.20%	4.1%
Josh Heupel	Tennessee	41	17.75	69.8%	73.30%	-3.5%
Lane Kiffin	Ole Miss	64.75	30	68.3%	66.20%	2.1%
Brent Venables	Oklahoma	13	6.5	66.7%	61.50%	5.2%
Hugh Freeze	Auburn	63	33.75	65.1%	64.00%	1.1%
Eliah Drinkwitz	Mizzou	31.5	19	62.4%	64.50%	-2.1%
Mike Elko	Texas A&M	11.5	7	62.2%	64.00%	-1.8%
Steve Sarkisian	Texas	51.25	31.75	61.7%	59.20%	2.5%
Mark Stoops	Kentucky	67.75	52.25	56.5%	52.90%	3.6%
Shane Beamer	South Carolina	16.5	15	52.4%	52.60%	-0.2%
Sam Pittman	Arkansas	21.5	21.5	50.0%	47.90%	2.1%
Clark Lea	Vanderbilt	8	22	26.7%	25.00%	1.7%

  

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