CFB Bowl Week 3 Picks

 College football bowl picks for week 3. The Aggregate is picking only one upset in the CFP. It also likes Ohio State to get revenge against the Oregon Ducks. Nor is it giving the Carson Beck-less Georgia Bulldogs much of a chance to beat Notre Dame. 

The Aggregate likes Notre Dame to beat the Georgia Bulldogs today. The data tells us the game should not be that close predicting a 36-24 victory. Certainly the loss of Carson Beck plays a factor in the Aggregate's prediction, but even if Beck was not injured the Georgia's chances would still just be 33%. In fact the data right now points to Notre Dame being the best team in the country. The Irish  have had the 17th toughest SOS in the country and are averaging beating their opponents by 29 points a game.

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The Aggregate favors Ohio State in their rematch with the Ducks, but it should be pointed out they also favored them in their game early in the season. The Buckeyes will have the advantage this time of not having to play at Oregon as the game is in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks actually have the better SOS, 19th-26th, but the Buckeyes are beating those opponents by an average of 7 points more per game. 

Bowl Week 3 CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Iowa	8-4	35	60.9%	+2.5		+105
Missouri	9-3	30	39.1%	-2.5	43.5	-125
Alabama	9-3	34	72.8%	-11.5		-395
Michigan	7-5	21	27.2%	+11.5	43.5	+310
Louisville	8-4	36	62.7%	-5.0		-192
Washington	6-6	30	37.3%	+5.0	50.5	+160
South Carolina	9-3	31	54.4%	-11.5		-425
Illinois	9-3	30	45.6%	+11.5	47.5	+330
Baylor	8-4	37	49.1%	+3.0		+130
Louisiana State	8-4	36	50.9%	-3.0	60.5	-155
Penn State	12-2	36	78.6%	-10.5		-355
Boise State	12-1	21	21.4%	+10.5	52.5	+280
Texas	12-2	34	72.9%	-13.5		-550
Arizona State	11-2	21	27.1%	+13.5	52.5	+410
Ohio State	11-2	37	60.2%	-1.0		-115
Oregon	13-0	34	39.8%	+1.0	53.5	-105
Notre Dame	12-1	36	70.9%	+1.0		-105
Georgia	11-2	24	29.1%	-1.0	44.5	-115
Duke	9-3	20	10.1%	+14.0		+410
Mississippi	9-3	38	89.9%	-14.0	53.5	-550
North Texas	6-6	27	23.7%	+7.5		+250
Texas State	7-5	44	76.3%	-7.5	66.5	-310
Minnesota	7-5	30	66.9%	-4.5		-175
Virginia Tech	6-6	24	33.1%	+4.5	42.5	+145
Buffalo	8-4	37	49.7%	+3.5		+136
Liberty	8-4	39	50.3%	-3.5	51.5	-162

Bowl Week 2 Predictions

Predictions for Bowl Week 2. The Aggregate went 9-2 in first bowl week projections. This week there are no playoff games so we just look at the traditional bowl slate. The Aggregate likes three different upsets this week. We're giving Navy a slight edge over Oklahoma, Boston College a pretty good chance to beat Nebraska and  Miami a big chance to take down Iowa State. 

With injuries and opt outs we've actually just raised Navy's chance to win to 53.8%. We don't have the resources to be able to do automatic updates to the story yet, but after computing the latest that's the percentage. The Sooners have been hit hard by the transfer portal and we have them losing as much as 33% production from some of their games this season. Navy on the other hand has everyone including Blake Horvath, their starting quarterback, whom they were missing earlier in the season. 

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Boston College has been good to us all season at the Aggregate. Vegas and others continue to under value the Eagles and this bowl season is no different. The opening line for the BC vs. Nebraska game made Boston College a 2.5 point underdog, but the data tells us that the Eagles have almost a 60% chance to win. Both of these teams have a reputation for beating bad teams this year and losing to good teams. Four of Boston College's losses were to teams ranked 32nd or higher. Five of Nebraska's losses were to teams ranked 34th or higher. 

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Lastly the data likes Miami (FL) over Iowa State. The Canes have been an offensive juggernaut this season, but have done a poor job of stopping their opponents. Iowa State conversely is only giving up 21 points per game. However, in three games this season Iowa State has given up 35 points or more and have gone 1-2 in those contests. That is how the Aggregate see's this game playing out, a 42-33 high scoring loss for State.  

                                             

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from the Aggregate!

Coastal Carolina	6-6	37	44.4%	+6.5		+190
Texas-San Antonio	6-6	39	55.6%	-6.5	57.5	-230
Northern Illinois	7-5	26	36.7%	-1.5		-120
Fresno State	6-6	28	63.3%	+1.5	42	even
South Florida	6-6	43	52.1%	+2.5		+114
San Jose State	7-5	42	47.9%	-2.5	63.5	-135
Pittsburgh	7-5	34	76.3%	-9.5		-325
Toledo	7-5	21	23.7%	+9.5	51.5	+260
Rutgers	7-5	28	33.7%	+6.5		+190
Kansas State	8-4	35	66.3%	-6.5	50.5	-230
Arkansas State	7-5	25	29.0%	+6.5		+185
Bowling Green	7-5	38	71.0%	-6.5	49.5	-225
Oklahoma	6-6	36	49.1%	-9.0		-305
Navy	9-3	33	50.9%	+9.0	46.5	+245
Georgia Tech	7-5	31	59.8%	-2.5		-130
Vanderbilt	6-6	27	40.2%	+2.5	54.5	+110
Texas Tech	8-4	36	36.7%	+2.5		+110
Arkansas	6-6	42	63.3%	-2.5	59.5	-130
Syracuse	9-3	35	82.8%	-5.5		-218
Washington State	8-4	20	17.2%	+5.5	60.5	+180
Texas A&M	8-4	33	55.0%	-1.0		-115
Southern California	6-6	31	45.0%	+1.0	50.5	-105
Connecticut	8-4	40	48.5%	+5.5		+170
North Carolina	6-6	37	51.5%	-5.5	56.5	-205
Boston College	7-5	31	59.8%	+2.5		+110
Nebraska	6-6	26	40.2%	-2.5	45.5	-130
Louisiana	10-3	24	27.5%	+8.5		+270
Texas Christian	8-4	33	72.5%	-8.5	60.5	-340
Iowa State	10-3	33	34.1%	-1.0		-115
Miami (FL)	10-2	42	65.9%	+1.0	53.5	-105
Miami (OH)	8-5	32	53.8%	-1.5		-118
Colorado State	8-4	27	46.2%	+1.5	43.5	-102
East Carolina	7-5	25	26.0%	+5.0		+170
North Carolina State	6-6	37	74.0%	-5.0	59.5	-205
Brigham Young	10-2	31	48.5%	+2.5		+110
Colorado	9-3	35	51.5%	-2.5	54.5	-130
Louisiana Tech	5-8	9	14.3%	+16.5		+525
Army	11-2	30	85.7%	-16.5	43.5	-750