SEC End of Season Rankings

 

The end of year rankings for the 2024 SEC season. The SEC had more parody than ever in the conference and without a dominant team at the top many believe they are no longer the strongest conference, but the numbers tell us that top to bottom the SEC is still the best league. 

Best Team: 

The Texas Longhorns are our #1 rated team in the SEC. The Longhorns finished the season 13-3 and 7-1 in the SEC. They were defeated in the semifinals of the college football playoff to eventual national champion Ohio State. Texas averaged 32 points a game and allowed 15. The difference for them was a lack of offense in losses. In their losses the Longhorns only averaged 16 points. Texas's strength of schedule this season was 7th. 

Biggest Surprise: 

The Vanderbilt Commodores was one of the Aggregates biggest surprise teams in the entire country. Vanderbilt started the season ranked 107th in our preseason rankings and finished 41st. That still only landed them 14th in the SEC, but the Commodores were a much improved team. Vanderbilt was +3.6 in point differential against the 31st hardest schedule in the country going 7-6 and 3-5 in the SEC. 

Biggest Disappointment:  

There is no doubt the Sooners were the biggest disappointment in the SEC this year. Oklahoma was projected to finish 4th by the data and many had them in the conversation for an SEC title, but OU could never get their offense off the ground. The Sooners averaged only 24 points a game and if you take out their two blowouts against Maine and Temple it was only 18 a game.  They finished 12th in the SEC in our rankings and 35th nationally. 

SEC Rankings
Rank	Team	Record	Conf Record	Rating	National Rank	Pre Seas Rnk
1	Texas	13-3	7-1	48.6	3	5
2	Mississippi	10-3	5-3	48.3	4	6
3	Alabama	9-4	5-3	45.7	6	16
4	Tennessee	10-3	6-2	44.7	8	19
5	Georgia	11-3	6-2	44.1	10	2
6	Florida	8-5	4-4	37.9	15	20
7	South Carolina	9-4	5-3	37.9	16	38
8	Louisiana State	9-4	5-3	37.6	18	18
9	Texas A&M	8-5	5-3	36.3	23	10
10	Arkansas	7-6	3-5	32.6	32	51
11	Auburn	5-7	2-6	32.0	33	29
12	Oklahoma	6-7	2-6	31.6	35	9
13	Missouri	10-3	5-3	31.2	36	21
14	Vanderbilt	7-6	3-5	30.3	41	107
15	Kentucky	4-8	1-7	23.9	62	37
16	Mississippi State	2-10	0-8	20.9	68	77

End of Year Top 25 Rankings

End of year top 25 rankings. After the bowl season teams moved around a lot. Ohio State climbs to the top. Arizona State was our biggest climber. Colorado had our biggest drop. We have five teams in the exact same spot as the AP and we have three teams ranked that the AP couldn't find space for. Florida is our biggest disagreement with the AP ranking 18 spots higher in our ranking than theirs. 

It doesn't always happen with the Aggregate rankings and the eventual national championship, but this year the algorithm agrees with what happened on the field. Ohio State was rated the nations best team according to the data with Notre Dame second. The Buckeyes were highly rated all season by the numbers, but really came into their own at the end. Ohio State started ranked 4th in our system and never went above 9th on the season. 

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Arizona State was our biggest climber this week rising eight spots. The Sun Devils showed a lot in the college football playoffs and were one of the years best stories. We had them ranked as the 85th best team in the country to start the year and their change of 72 places was the best for any team this season. 

The Colorado Buffaloes had the most precipitous drop this week. The Buffaloes retained almost all their star players for their matchup with BYU and the Aggregate had them as a 4 point favorite, but BYU took it to them winning the Alamo bowl 36-14. 

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We have three teams ranked in our final 25 that the AP couldn't find space for even in their receiving votes. The numbers tell us that Iowa, USC and Minnesota all our top 25 teams in the country even though their records are not as sexy. The Hawkeyes reason for being so high was some good wins against edge top 25 schools. They beat teams ranked 32, 28 and 25 by a combined 73 points. USC was helped by two things. The Trojans bookended their season with a victory over top 25 schools and then all of their losses sans Notre Dame were by single digits. Minnesota started the season 2-3, but finished the year 6-2 with wins over two top 25 schools. 

The numbers tell us that the Florida Gators are a much better team than 33rd in the country. The Gators went up as high as 53rd during the season, but their improved performance over the latter part of the season has us putting them all the way at 15th. Florida beat LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State and then Tulane to finish the season. State not withstanding those other wins were very impressive and moved Florida up high on our list.

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Ohio State	14-2	+2	53.3	1
2	Notre Dame	14-2	-1	51.8	2
3	Texas	13-3	-1	48.6	4
4	Mississippi	10-3	0	48.3	11
5	Penn State	13-3	+3	45.9	5
6	Alabama	9-4	-1	45.7	17
7	Oregon	13-1	0	45.1	3
8	Tennessee	10-3	-2	44.7	9
9	Indiana	11-2	0	44.5	10
10	Georgia	11-3	+1	44.1	6
11	Miami (FL)	10-3	-1	43.4	18
12	Louisville	9-4	0	39.4	28
13	Arizona State	11-3	+8	39.0	7
14	Clemson	10-4	+2	38.1	14
15	Florida	8-5	+7	37.9	33
16	South Carolina	9-4	-2	37.9	19
17	Iowa	8-5	-2	37.6	NR
18	Louisiana State	9-4	+1	37.6	27
19	Southern Methodist	11-3	-6	37.4	12
20	Southern California	7-6	-2	37.2	NR
21	Michigan	8-5	+3	36.9	29
22	Minnesota	8-5	+4	36.4	NR
23	Texas A&M	8-5	-3	36.3	35
24	Brigham Young	11-2	+4	35.9	13
25	Colorado	9-4	-8	35.5	25
134	Kent State	0-12	-	-16.0	NR

Week 14 Friday Predictions

 Week 14 Friday Predictions. The Aggregate has predicted three upsets on the day. 

The Aggregate likes Minnesota over Wisconsin in the battle for Paul Bunyan's axe. Vegas announced the Badgers as a two point favorite when the betting line was announced. The Aggregate data tells us that the Badgers have a higher ceiling than the Gophers, but overall the Gophers have been more consistent on the season and don't have as bad of performances as Wisconsin which is why the Aggregate gives Minnesota the slight edge. 

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The next upset the Aggregate likes is Navy winning at East Carolina. Vegas installed ECU as a one point favorite coming into the week. The Pirates have excelled since firing their head coach, but the Aggregate see's Navy as just too powerful to go in and lose giving them a 62.9% chance to win. The Aggregate data also does not like the loss of ECU's head coach. Statistically speaking the loss of a head coach is almost always harmful to a teams overall strength. ECU is trying to be the exception to that rule. 

Lastly the Aggregate likes Texas State to go to South Alabama and win. Both of these teams have been up and down this year, but the Aggregate gives the slight edge to Texas State in this game. The data tells us that the Jaguars have been slightly more consistent than the Bobcats this season, but the Bobcats have a better point differential against a harder schedule. 

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Week Fourteen CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score Prediction	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Tuesday, November 26th
Kent State	0-11	17	15.3%	+21.5		+900
Buffalo	7-4	42	84.7%	-21.5	50.5	-1600
Toledo	7-4	36	79.2%	-9.5		-310
Akron	3-8	20	20.8%	+9.5	48.5	+250
Thursday, November 28th
Memphis	9-2	30	24.3%	+12.5		+380
Tulane	9-2	46	75.7%	-12.5	56.5	-500
Friday, November 29th
Ball State	3-8	23	16.7%	+13.5		+425
Ohio	8-3	40	83.3%	-13.5	53	-575
Miami (OH)	7-4	24	43.8%	+3.0		+124
Bowling Green	7-4	30	56.3%	-3.0	43	-148
Oklahoma State	3-8	26	27.1%	+16.5		+525
Colorado	8-3	41	72.9%	-16.5	64.5	-750
Minnesota	6-5	34	59.0%	+2.0		+105
Wisconsin	5-6	30	41.0%	-2.0	44	-125
Oregon State	5-6	21	18.1%	+18.5		+675
Boise State	10-1	42	81.9%	-18.5	55.5	-1050
Navy	7-3	41	62.9%	+1.0		-115
East Carolina	7-4	31	37.1%	-1.0	56.5	-105
Texas State	6-5	39	58.3%	+1.0		-105
South Alabama	6-5	33	41.7%	-1.0	62.5	-115
Mississippi State	2-9	13	4.9%	+27.5		+1400
Mississippi	8-3	45	95.1%	-27.5	61.5	-3200
Liberty	8-3	21	37.5%	-1.0		-130
Sam Houston	8-3	30	62.5%	+1.0	47	+110
Utah State	4-7	37	38.2%	+7.0		+180
Colorado State	7-4	40	61.8%	-7.0	60.5	-218
Stanford	3-8	34	42.4%	+1.5		even
San Jose State	6-5	36	57.6%	-1.5	54.5	-120
Nebraska	6-5	24	29.9%	+4.0		+154
Iowa	7-4	37	70.1%	-4.0	39	-185
Georgia Tech	7-4	20	22.2%	+20.5		+800
Georgia	9-2	34	77.8%	-20.5	54.5	-1350
Utah	4-7	31	33.3%	+4.5		+240
Central Florida	4-7	40	66.7%	-4.5	48.5	-298