Bowl Week 1 Predictions

 

Predictions for Bowl week 1. The Aggregate likes most of  the favorites in week one of the college bowl season. It does predict one victory for a non power 4 team over a power 4 team, but see's another non-power 4 team, who spent a good deal of the year ranked in the top 25, as a loser to a 6-6 power 4 squad. It also doesn't see any of the CFP games as being particularly close. 

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The Aggregate is picking the Memphis Tigers to beat West Virginia on Tuesday in the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl. The Mountaineers were originally the favorites in this game as shown below, but that is no longer the case. DraftKings now has Memphis -190. West Virginia was the better team this season, but they are hemorrhaging after losing their head coach. In addition to their head coach the team will not have 11 of their players or their former defensive coordinator. The Aggregate has them at about 60% of their regular season strength. 

The Aggregate is picking #24 UNLV to lose to the Cal Golden Bears. The Aggregate is predicting that the loss of head coach Barry Odom will be too much for the Runnin Rebels. This all despite Cal's loss of their starting quarterback, Fernando Mendoza who is in the transfer portal. 

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The Aggregate isn't predicting any of the CFP games to be closer than six points and it's giving the all the favorites at least a 63% chance of winning their game. Texas is the biggest favorite with a 76.5% chance to win and Penn State is the weakest favorite at just a 63.3% chance to win. e. 

Saturday, December 14th
Army	11-1	36	59.0%	-6.5		-245
Navy	8-3	30	41.0%	+6.5	39	+200
Western Michigan	6-6	28	26.6%	+10.0		+300
South Alabama	6-6	40	73.4%	-10.0	59.5	-380
Tuesday, December 17th
Memphis	10-2	38	59.8%	+1.5		-102
West Virginia	6-6	31	40.2%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Wednesday, December 18th
Western Kentucky	8-5	31	36.3%	+3.0		+124
James Madison	8-4	39	63.7%	-3.0	53.5	-148
California	6-6	31	54.9%	-1.5		-120
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-3	29	45.1%	+1.5	51.5	even
Thursday, December 19th
Georgia Southern	8-4	31	74.0%	-4.5		-180
Sam Houston	9-3	21	26.0%	+4.5	46.5	+150
Friday, December 20th
Ohio	10-3	36	54.6%	-2.5		-130
Jacksonville State	9-4	35	45.4%	+2.5	52	+110
Tulane	9-4	31	37.9%	+9.5		+260
Florida	7-5	36	62.1%	-9.5	49.5	-325
Indiana	11-1	31	30.2%	+8.5		+245
Notre Dame	11-1	42	69.8%	-8.5	51.5	-305
Saturday, December 21st
Southern Methodist	11-2	24	36.7%	+8.0		+240
Penn State	11-2	34	63.3%	-8.0	52.5	-298
Clemson	10-3	20	23.5%	+10.5		+310
Texas	11-2	35	76.5%	-10.5	53.5	-395
Tennessee	10-2	31	34.9%	+7.0		+195
Ohio State	10-2	37	65.1%	-7.0	46.5	-238

Top 25 Week 14

      

Top 25 for Week 14. The biggest highlight for this weeks top 25 is a new number one. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are now rated as the best team in the land by the Aggregate. 

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The top 25 also features a few big movers. Florida jumps up 5 spots to 19th after a big win over Ole Miss and SMU continues to rise climbing another 4 spots to 16th. 

Our biggest drop came from Colorado. The Buffaloes dropped 6 spots down to 24th after their loss to Kansas this week. The Jayhawks were ranked 34th coming into the game, but still fell after losing by 16 to a team they were favored to beat. 

Other notes are the teams the Aggregate thinks are better than the CFP committee is rating them as. The most glaring of these teams is the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa is rated 12th in the Aggregate poll. The Hawkeyes have played the 26th hardest schedule in the nation and have a +11.7 point differential. Iowa seems to be helped the most by the point that they've beaten three top 30 ranked teams by at least 17 points. 

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Other teams the Aggregate ranks in the top 25 that the CFP committee did not include: Louisville, USC, Florida, LSU and Virginia Tech. Which of these teams do you believe are actually a top 25 team in the country? 

	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	CFP Ranking
1	Notre Dame	10-1	+1	52.5	5
2	Ohio State	10-1	+2	51.4	2
3	Texas	10-1	-2	50.7	3
4	Mississippi	8-3	-1	49.0	14
5	Alabama	8-3	0	47.1	13
6	Tennessee	9-2	+2	46.2	8
7	Miami (FL)	10-1	-1	45.9	6
8	Georgia	9-2	-1	45.0	7
9	Oregon	11-0	0	45.0	1
10	Penn State	10-1	0	43.9	4
11	Indiana	10-1	0	42.2	10
12	Iowa	7-4	+2	39.0	NR
13	Louisville	7-4	+3	38.8	NR
14	Clemson	9-2	-2	38.3	12
15	South Carolina	8-3	-2	38.2	15
16	Southern Methodist	10-1	+4	37.3	9
17	Southern California	6-5	-2	37.1	NR
18	Texas A&M	8-3	-1	36.4	20
19	Florida	6-5	+5	36.4	NR
20	Louisiana State	7-4	-1	35.6	NR
21	Tulane	9-2	+1	35.5	17
22	Virginia Tech	5-6	-1	35.0	NR
23	Brigham Young	9-2	0	34.7	19
24	Colorado	8-3	-6	34.5	25
25	Arizona State	9-2	+3	34.4	16
133	Kent State	0-11	0	-15.0	NR

Top 25 Week 13

 Top 25 for Week 13. The Aggregate has no changes at the top leaving the first five spots untouched. 

Biggest mover this week was Tulane who jumped 7 spots to get to #23. This is extremely rare for non-power 5 schools in the aggregate model. 

BYU was the team that fell the furthest this week dropping four spots after their first loss. The Cougars will have to be on upset watch again this Saturday against Kansas. 

Other notables that the Aggregate considers Top 25 teams include, Iowa (14), USC (15), Louisville (16), LSU (19), VaTech (21), Florida (24) and Baylor (25). When looking at these teams it's important to remember that the Aggregate's top 25 is not a deserved based system. Instead the metric works off of what team would actually be favored on the field. These rankings are very similar to how rankings would look if based on Vegas favorites and betting lines. 

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	CFP Ranking
1	Texas	9-1	0	51.8	3
2	Notre Dame	9-1	0	51.4	6
3	Mississippi	8-2	0	50.7	9
4	Ohio State	9-1	0	50.4	2
5	Alabama	8-2	0	50.3	7
6	Miami (FL)	9-1	+1	46.3	8
7	Georgia	8-2	+2	46.2	10
8	Tennessee	8-2	-2	45.8	11
9	Oregon	11-0	-1	45.0	1
10	Penn State	9-1	0	44.5	4
11	Indiana	10-0	0	43.2	5
12	Clemson	8-2	+1	41.7	17
13	South Carolina	7-3	-1	41.3	18
14	Iowa	6-4	+1	38.7	NR
15	Southern California	5-5	+1	37.5	NR
16	Louisville	6-4	-2	37.4	NR
17	Texas A&M	8-2	0	36.7	15
18	Colorado	8-2	+4	35.9	16
19	Louisiana State	6-4	-1	35.7	NR
20	Southern Methodist	9-1	+1	35.7	13
21	Virginia Tech	5-5	-1	35.6	NR
22	Tulane	9-2	+7	35.5	20
23	Brigham Young	9-1	-4	35.0	14
24	Florida	5-5	+1	34.8	NR
25	Baylor	6-4	+3	34.6	NR
133	Kent State	0-10	0	-14.0	NR