College Football Playoff Final Breakdown

                             

 

College Football Playoff Final Breakdown. We decided to give you a behind the scenes look into how we come up with our predictions and ratings for the college football playoff final. Below is an entire breakdown of almost all of the information that plays a part in our evaluations (Note: Sagarin, ESPN FPI and the Vegas and W/L columns are there just for comparison. They are not factored into the Aggregates equation.)

The Aggregate is giving Notre Dame a higher chance than most current analytics sites are right now. Out of all the predictions sites listed here the Aggregate is the most accurate when it comes to predicting games when a team has a 50%-59.9% chance to win, getting it right 60.8% of the time. In this case our prediction is the same as ESPN's FPI, Vegas and Sagarin all of whom are predicting Ohio State.

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A new feature that we added just this season was the injury impact. This category normally includes coaching changes and opt outs. Adding this category has helped us improve our bowl game accuracy. In the case of the final it has definitely made an impact. Before Notre Dame offensive lineman, Anthonie Knapp, was ruled out the Aggregate Median predictor actually favored Notre Dame, but now favors Ohio State. Typically an offensive lineman wouldn't have that much impact, but with the teams being so closely matched it pushed the favorite to Ohio State.

To help us understand how close this game is we can take a look at the teams standard deviation ranges. These ranges are determined by taking each teams assessed value from each game they played and figuring the standard deviation from those marks. When looking at the ranges Notre Dame has a higher top end to the range at 68.5 compared to Ohio State's 65.1. However, Ohio State seems more consistent with their low end of the standard deviation range being a 40.1 compared to Notre Dame's 36.5. 

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Team	Ohio State	Notre Dame
Records	13-2	14-1
SOS	20	14
Opponent Average Strength	30.6	31.1
Opponent Average Rank	47.4	44.0
Best Win	42-17W vs. (7) Tenn	66-7W @ (78) Purdue
Worst Loss	10-13L vs. (30) Michigan	14-16L vs. (109) NIU
Aggregate Mean Rating	52.6	52.5
Mean Standard Deviation Range	40.1-65.1	36.5-68.5
Average Injury Impact	1.3%	3.3%
Median Chance to Win	50.4%	49.6%
Mean C2W	51.9%	48.1%
Sagarin	57.0%	43.0%
ESPN's FPI	55.3%	44.7%
Vegas Favorite	x
W/L Favoirte		x
PPG	35.8	37.0
OPG	12.2	14.3
PPG in Wins	38.5	42.2
OPG in Wins	8.6	13.4
PPG in Losses	20.5	14.0
OPG in Losses	22.5	16.0
Mean Score Projection	30	29
Standard Deviation SP	30	14
Vegas Opening LIne	-9.5	9.5
Vegas Opening O/U	46.5	46.5

Betting Guide CFP Semi-finals

Betting Guide breakdown for the College football playoff semi's. If you're looking for our semi-finals predictions find them here: https://aggregaterankings.blogspot.com/2025/01/college-football-playoff-semi-final.html

Our Bets

Moneyline

Notre Dame -118

Texas +185

The Aggregate likes both of the favorites in the matchups Thursday and Friday, but does that make them a good bet? The Aggregate's betting philosophy is simple we want to make more money than we lose. To figure that out. We compare how often we lose at a certain prediction percentage to how much we stand to gain. For the Notre Dame vs. Penn State matchup we need to look at a couple things.

Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-118
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	-102

In this game the Aggregate has Notre Dame as a 70.8% favorite. When the Aggregate has predicted a team has at least a 70.0%-79.9% chance this year that team has won 71.4% of the time. So it losses 28.6% of the time. So let's say we made this bet 100 times for $1 each time. we would lose most likely $29 dollars. To make a profit we need however much we profit to be more than $29. We will use $30 for this example. So for 71 winning bets we need to win at least $30 to make a profit. So to achieve a profit we need for each bet to win at least $0.43 to turn a profit. For a $1 bet we would need odds of at least -235 or lower. Since Notre Dame is just -118 then they are a great bet in our opinion on the money line. 

Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

The best bet for the second game this week is to bet on Texas at +180. Teams who the Aggregate has predicted with a 40.0%-49.9% chance has won at a 39.4% rate this season. This means on a $1 bet we need to win at least $1.59 to turn a profit. +180 would give us a profit of $1.80. 

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Parlay

Notre Dame -118

Ohio State-225

+146 

Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-122
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	+102
Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

As we discussed above Notre Dame's likeliness to win is 71.4%. Ohio State's is also higher than the projected chance to win by the Aggregate. When the Aggregate is projecting a team to have a 50.0%-59.9% chance to win they actually win at a 60.1% rate. So to get our chances for both teams to win we multiply those probabilities together. That gives us a 42.9% chance for the parlay to hit. That means we need to overcome the losses of 57.1% of bets. That means we need at least +139 to make a profit. Obviously a line of +146 is better than that mark which makes it a good bet. 

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Against the Spread

Notre Dame -1.5

Texas +6.5

Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-122
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	+102
Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

The Aggregate has hit at a 53.1% rate this season at predicting against the spread. At that rate we would make a profit and so are smart bet here is on Notre Dame -1.5. The data tells us that the Fighting Irish should actually be favored by about 7. It's also at a little bit of a discount as the ATS bet right now is just -108 to make that bet at least on Draft Kings. 

Texas +6.5 is the second against the spread bet we're making here at the Aggregate. The data tells us that the Ohio State/Texas semi-final will be much closer than the Vegas line. Not only has the Aggregate hit at 53.1% in general in this category, but when the data is more than 5 points different than the line it's actually hitting at 54.2% of the time. 

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Over/Under

None

The Aggregate doesn't like any of the Over/Under bets this season based on the data. None of the parameters are present in these games where the Aggregate has made money on the over/under this season so we are not recommending any over/under bet this week.

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The Aggregate is not responsible for any decision any individual makes. Please gamble responsibly and if you need help reach out. 

College Football Playoff Semi-final Predictions

 College football playoff semi-final predictions. The Aggregate likes Notre Dame as a big favorite. In the second game the data is telling us it will be a much closer game with Ohio State being the slight favorite over the Longhorns.

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For the game on Thursday night the data tells us that Notre Dame is a touchdown favorite over Penn State. Often the biggest thing brought up for Notre Dame is their week two loss to Northern Illinois, but the data from this season tells us that game is the outlier for the Irish. Notre Dame's Aggregate value score for that game was a 4.3. Their next closest score to that this season for the Irish is a 38.1. In fact the range of the rest of their game value scores is 38.1-77.8. Penn State conversely has been very consistent, but they have not shown the upper end that Notre Dame has. Their range of game scores this season is 25.3-62.6.  

Other metrics don't favor Notre Dame quite as much as the Aggregate. The Vegas line has them only as a 1.5 point favorite. Jeff Sagarin has them with a 58% chance to win and ESPN's FPI has them with a 58.6% chance. The Aggregate's other prediction style, the mean prediction, has the Irish with a 69.7% chance. When ESPN's FPI predicts a team in the 50.1%-59.9% chance to win they win 50% of the time. When Sagrain predicts 50.1%-59.9% they win 53.9% of the time. However, when the Aggregate mean predicts 60%-69.9% they win 74.6% of the time and when the Aggregate median predicts 70%-79.9% the team wins 71.4% of the time. 

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In the week's second game the Aggregate is predicting a much closer contest. The Aggregate see's Ohio State as a slight favorite in this game. The Buckeyes are favored by one point and given a 54.2% chance below. Before the last round of the playoffs the data actually showed Texas as a slight favorite in this game, but the Buckeyes rout of Oregon and the Longhorns close game with the Sun Devils changed the data's prediction. 

The Buckeyes are averaging beating their opponents by 24 points. This against the 26th hardest schedule in the country this year. The Longhorns averaged beating opponents by 19.5 points per game against a schedule that the Aggregate ranks as the 11th hardest in the country. 

CFP Semi-finals Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Notre Dame	13-1	36	70.8%	-1.5		-122
Penn State	13-2	29	29.2%	+1.5	46.5	+102
Ohio State	12-2	34	54.2%	-6.5		-218
Texas	13-2	33	45.8%	+6.5	54.5	+180

Michigan and Washington Set to Square Off in National Championship

Michigan and Washington Set to Square Off in National Championship

By: John Smith

As the college football season comes to a crescendo, all eyes are on the impending clash between the #1 Michigan Wolverines and the #2 Washington Huskies in the national championship. Both teams boast immaculate records, and their journey to this pinnacle promises an electrifying showdown on the grandest stage of college football.

Team Records:

• Michigan: 14-0

• Washington: 14-0

These two undefeated juggernauts have navigated a challenging season to earn the right to vie for the national championship, setting the stage for an epic battle.

Points Per Game (PPG):

• Michigan: 36

• Washington: 37.6

Michigan and Washington feature high-scoring offenses. Although the Huskies boast an explosive offense, Michigan averages just 1.6 less points per game.

Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):

• Michigan: 10.2 

• Washington: 24.1

Michigan's defense has been outstanding and helped them immensely in their semi-final game with Bama. That defense has allowed only 10.2 points per game this season. Washington faces the challenge of breaking through this defensive fortress to put points on the board while also trying to limit the physical Michigan offense. 

Best Wins:

• Michigan: 49-0 victory at #77 Michigan State

• Washington: 56-19 triumph vs. #47 Boise State

According to the Aggregate each teams best win came early in the season. For Michigan it was an absolute drubbing of rival Michigan State at Michigan State. The Wolverines gave no hope to the Spartans who the Aggregate rated as the 77th best team at that time. 

For Washington their best game came against Boise State. The Huskies handed the Broncos their worst loss of the season 56-19. Boise was ranked as the 47th best team at the time and went on to win the Mountain West conference. 

Worst Games:

• Michigan: 31-6 victory vs. #120 Bowling Green

• Washington: 15-7 win vs. #105 Arizona State

Despite their unblemished records, both teams have faced challenges in narrower victories against lower-ranked opponents. 

For the Wolverines their worst game performance as rated by the Aggregate came against Bowling Green. Michigan still won 31-6, but the Aggregate was unimpressed with only a 25 point margin against the 120th best team in the country while playing in the confines of the Big House.

For Washington their worst game was late in the season and it inspired many pundits including the Aggregate to pick against them in the Pac 12 championship and the CFP semi-final. The Huskies beat 105th ranked Arizona State 15-8. Somehow the Sun Devils were able to keep the potent Washington offense to just 15 points.  

Aggregate Ratings:

• Michigan: 52.3

• Washington: 44.7

Michigan enters the championship with a higher aggregate rating, but Washington has defied the Aggregate in it’s last two games. The Huskies are known for playing one score games and that has kept their Aggregate rating low, but their also known for winning those games. 

Predicted Score:

• Michigan: 30

• Washington: 23

The Aggregate likes Michigan to win by 7. It believes the Wolverines defense will keep Washington in check just enough to win. 

Vegas Odds:

• Michigan: -4.5 (Spread), -195 (Moneyline), Over/Under 55.5

• Washington: +4.5 (Spread), +165 (Moneyline), Over/Under 55.5

The Vegas odds suggest a closely contested matchup, with Michigan favored by a narrow margin. The Aggregate likes Michigan to win and cover with it’s own line being for Michigan at -7.6. However, the Aggregate is 93-106-3 on the season at accurately choosing the right spread team.

The moneyline is set at -195 for Michigan and the Aggregate really likes that bet. Not only does it see Michigan as the favorite, but it thinks the Wolverines have a 62.9 % chance to win. Unlike the spread the Aggregate has a proven track record for picking the moneyline correct at 72.8% of the time. It is 158-59 in moneyline bets this season. 

The Over/Under indicates expectations for a moderately high-scoring affair. The Aggregate likes the under in this case, but again it does not have a good track record in picking over/under. In its current prediction model it is 50-54. 

Consistency and Expectation:

• Michigan Consistency Rating: 45.9, Rank: 44th

• Washington Consistency Rating: 54.1, Rank: 78th

The Aggregate’s consistency rating is based on how far apart a teams best and worst performances were during the season. The less far the more consistent that team has been and the more likely that team is to reasonably deliver close to its expectation. This metric is not an evaluation of how good a team is. A consistently good team will score well in this measure, but so will a consistently bad team. Teams that are inconsistent may have more good games, but are more likely to also have some clunkers. 

Michigan’s consistency ranking this year is 44th which puts them in the top third of college teams. Washington’s ranking is 78th which puts them in the middle third of college teams. 

Performance Against Preseason Expectation:

• Michigan: -0.5

• Washington: -3.2

The performance against preseason expectations metric is derived based on a teams rating at the beginning of the season Both teams in this case have been very close to their preseason expectations with Washington being a little lower in rating because of their propensity to play close games. 

The Cheating Angle:

Michigan faced adversity this year with a suspension for cheating, but the incident has served to galvanize the team. The Wolverines have used this setback as motivation, turning a negative situation into a unifying force that has propelled them to the national championship. Most people wouldn’t see it this was, but the team has seemingly turned people’s outcry about the cheating into an us vs. the world kind of scenario even wearing Free Harbaugh shirts when their head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended for three games. 

Physicality and Awards:

Michigan is noted for its physical style of play, a characteristic that has been a key component of their success. It will be interesting to see how Washington handles the Wolverines physicality on both offense and defense. The Huskies are not known for their toughness, but their offensive line has been outstanding this year. In fact Washington's offensive line was recognized with the prestigious Joe Moore Award for being the best offensive line in the country, underscoring their prowess in the trenches.

As the Wolverines and Huskies prepare to clash in the national championship, fans can expect a thrilling contest between two powerhouse programs. This will be the last national championship played where only four teams were invited to the tournament. Will the Wolverines dominate the line and prove too much for the Huskies or will Washington’s passing attack wreak havoc and allow them to pull away? What do you think? 

This article was written with the assistance of Chat GPT.