SEC End of Season Rankings

 

The end of year rankings for the 2024 SEC season. The SEC had more parody than ever in the conference and without a dominant team at the top many believe they are no longer the strongest conference, but the numbers tell us that top to bottom the SEC is still the best league. 

Best Team: 

The Texas Longhorns are our #1 rated team in the SEC. The Longhorns finished the season 13-3 and 7-1 in the SEC. They were defeated in the semifinals of the college football playoff to eventual national champion Ohio State. Texas averaged 32 points a game and allowed 15. The difference for them was a lack of offense in losses. In their losses the Longhorns only averaged 16 points. Texas's strength of schedule this season was 7th. 

Biggest Surprise: 

The Vanderbilt Commodores was one of the Aggregates biggest surprise teams in the entire country. Vanderbilt started the season ranked 107th in our preseason rankings and finished 41st. That still only landed them 14th in the SEC, but the Commodores were a much improved team. Vanderbilt was +3.6 in point differential against the 31st hardest schedule in the country going 7-6 and 3-5 in the SEC. 

Biggest Disappointment:  

There is no doubt the Sooners were the biggest disappointment in the SEC this year. Oklahoma was projected to finish 4th by the data and many had them in the conversation for an SEC title, but OU could never get their offense off the ground. The Sooners averaged only 24 points a game and if you take out their two blowouts against Maine and Temple it was only 18 a game.  They finished 12th in the SEC in our rankings and 35th nationally. 

SEC Rankings
Rank	Team	Record	Conf Record	Rating	National Rank	Pre Seas Rnk
1	Texas	13-3	7-1	48.6	3	5
2	Mississippi	10-3	5-3	48.3	4	6
3	Alabama	9-4	5-3	45.7	6	16
4	Tennessee	10-3	6-2	44.7	8	19
5	Georgia	11-3	6-2	44.1	10	2
6	Florida	8-5	4-4	37.9	15	20
7	South Carolina	9-4	5-3	37.9	16	38
8	Louisiana State	9-4	5-3	37.6	18	18
9	Texas A&M	8-5	5-3	36.3	23	10
10	Arkansas	7-6	3-5	32.6	32	51
11	Auburn	5-7	2-6	32.0	33	29
12	Oklahoma	6-7	2-6	31.6	35	9
13	Missouri	10-3	5-3	31.2	36	21
14	Vanderbilt	7-6	3-5	30.3	41	107
15	Kentucky	4-8	1-7	23.9	62	37
16	Mississippi State	2-10	0-8	20.9	68	77

Bowl Week 2 Predictions

Predictions for Bowl Week 2. The Aggregate went 9-2 in first bowl week projections. This week there are no playoff games so we just look at the traditional bowl slate. The Aggregate likes three different upsets this week. We're giving Navy a slight edge over Oklahoma, Boston College a pretty good chance to beat Nebraska and  Miami a big chance to take down Iowa State. 

With injuries and opt outs we've actually just raised Navy's chance to win to 53.8%. We don't have the resources to be able to do automatic updates to the story yet, but after computing the latest that's the percentage. The Sooners have been hit hard by the transfer portal and we have them losing as much as 33% production from some of their games this season. Navy on the other hand has everyone including Blake Horvath, their starting quarterback, whom they were missing earlier in the season. 

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Boston College has been good to us all season at the Aggregate. Vegas and others continue to under value the Eagles and this bowl season is no different. The opening line for the BC vs. Nebraska game made Boston College a 2.5 point underdog, but the data tells us that the Eagles have almost a 60% chance to win. Both of these teams have a reputation for beating bad teams this year and losing to good teams. Four of Boston College's losses were to teams ranked 32nd or higher. Five of Nebraska's losses were to teams ranked 34th or higher. 

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Lastly the data likes Miami (FL) over Iowa State. The Canes have been an offensive juggernaut this season, but have done a poor job of stopping their opponents. Iowa State conversely is only giving up 21 points per game. However, in three games this season Iowa State has given up 35 points or more and have gone 1-2 in those contests. That is how the Aggregate see's this game playing out, a 42-33 high scoring loss for State.  

                                             

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from the Aggregate!

Coastal Carolina	6-6	37	44.4%	+6.5		+190
Texas-San Antonio	6-6	39	55.6%	-6.5	57.5	-230
Northern Illinois	7-5	26	36.7%	-1.5		-120
Fresno State	6-6	28	63.3%	+1.5	42	even
South Florida	6-6	43	52.1%	+2.5		+114
San Jose State	7-5	42	47.9%	-2.5	63.5	-135
Pittsburgh	7-5	34	76.3%	-9.5		-325
Toledo	7-5	21	23.7%	+9.5	51.5	+260
Rutgers	7-5	28	33.7%	+6.5		+190
Kansas State	8-4	35	66.3%	-6.5	50.5	-230
Arkansas State	7-5	25	29.0%	+6.5		+185
Bowling Green	7-5	38	71.0%	-6.5	49.5	-225
Oklahoma	6-6	36	49.1%	-9.0		-305
Navy	9-3	33	50.9%	+9.0	46.5	+245
Georgia Tech	7-5	31	59.8%	-2.5		-130
Vanderbilt	6-6	27	40.2%	+2.5	54.5	+110
Texas Tech	8-4	36	36.7%	+2.5		+110
Arkansas	6-6	42	63.3%	-2.5	59.5	-130
Syracuse	9-3	35	82.8%	-5.5		-218
Washington State	8-4	20	17.2%	+5.5	60.5	+180
Texas A&M	8-4	33	55.0%	-1.0		-115
Southern California	6-6	31	45.0%	+1.0	50.5	-105
Connecticut	8-4	40	48.5%	+5.5		+170
North Carolina	6-6	37	51.5%	-5.5	56.5	-205
Boston College	7-5	31	59.8%	+2.5		+110
Nebraska	6-6	26	40.2%	-2.5	45.5	-130
Louisiana	10-3	24	27.5%	+8.5		+270
Texas Christian	8-4	33	72.5%	-8.5	60.5	-340
Iowa State	10-3	33	34.1%	-1.0		-115
Miami (FL)	10-2	42	65.9%	+1.0	53.5	-105
Miami (OH)	8-5	32	53.8%	-1.5		-118
Colorado State	8-4	27	46.2%	+1.5	43.5	-102
East Carolina	7-5	25	26.0%	+5.0		+170
North Carolina State	6-6	37	74.0%	-5.0	59.5	-205
Brigham Young	10-2	31	48.5%	+2.5		+110
Colorado	9-3	35	51.5%	-2.5	54.5	-130
Louisiana Tech	5-8	9	14.3%	+16.5		+525
Army	11-2	30	85.7%	-16.5	43.5	-750