Week 14 Friday Predictions

 Week 14 Friday Predictions. The Aggregate has predicted three upsets on the day. 

The Aggregate likes Minnesota over Wisconsin in the battle for Paul Bunyan's axe. Vegas announced the Badgers as a two point favorite when the betting line was announced. The Aggregate data tells us that the Badgers have a higher ceiling than the Gophers, but overall the Gophers have been more consistent on the season and don't have as bad of performances as Wisconsin which is why the Aggregate gives Minnesota the slight edge. 

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The next upset the Aggregate likes is Navy winning at East Carolina. Vegas installed ECU as a one point favorite coming into the week. The Pirates have excelled since firing their head coach, but the Aggregate see's Navy as just too powerful to go in and lose giving them a 62.9% chance to win. The Aggregate data also does not like the loss of ECU's head coach. Statistically speaking the loss of a head coach is almost always harmful to a teams overall strength. ECU is trying to be the exception to that rule. 

Lastly the Aggregate likes Texas State to go to South Alabama and win. Both of these teams have been up and down this year, but the Aggregate gives the slight edge to Texas State in this game. The data tells us that the Jaguars have been slightly more consistent than the Bobcats this season, but the Bobcats have a better point differential against a harder schedule. 

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Week Fourteen CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score Prediction	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Tuesday, November 26th
Kent State	0-11	17	15.3%	+21.5		+900
Buffalo	7-4	42	84.7%	-21.5	50.5	-1600
Toledo	7-4	36	79.2%	-9.5		-310
Akron	3-8	20	20.8%	+9.5	48.5	+250
Thursday, November 28th
Memphis	9-2	30	24.3%	+12.5		+380
Tulane	9-2	46	75.7%	-12.5	56.5	-500
Friday, November 29th
Ball State	3-8	23	16.7%	+13.5		+425
Ohio	8-3	40	83.3%	-13.5	53	-575
Miami (OH)	7-4	24	43.8%	+3.0		+124
Bowling Green	7-4	30	56.3%	-3.0	43	-148
Oklahoma State	3-8	26	27.1%	+16.5		+525
Colorado	8-3	41	72.9%	-16.5	64.5	-750
Minnesota	6-5	34	59.0%	+2.0		+105
Wisconsin	5-6	30	41.0%	-2.0	44	-125
Oregon State	5-6	21	18.1%	+18.5		+675
Boise State	10-1	42	81.9%	-18.5	55.5	-1050
Navy	7-3	41	62.9%	+1.0		-115
East Carolina	7-4	31	37.1%	-1.0	56.5	-105
Texas State	6-5	39	58.3%	+1.0		-105
South Alabama	6-5	33	41.7%	-1.0	62.5	-115
Mississippi State	2-9	13	4.9%	+27.5		+1400
Mississippi	8-3	45	95.1%	-27.5	61.5	-3200
Liberty	8-3	21	37.5%	-1.0		-130
Sam Houston	8-3	30	62.5%	+1.0	47	+110
Utah State	4-7	37	38.2%	+7.0		+180
Colorado State	7-4	40	61.8%	-7.0	60.5	-218
Stanford	3-8	34	42.4%	+1.5		even
San Jose State	6-5	36	57.6%	-1.5	54.5	-120
Nebraska	6-5	24	29.9%	+4.0		+154
Iowa	7-4	37	70.1%	-4.0	39	-185
Georgia Tech	7-4	20	22.2%	+20.5		+800
Georgia	9-2	34	77.8%	-20.5	54.5	-1350
Utah	4-7	31	33.3%	+4.5		+240
Central Florida	4-7	40	66.7%	-4.5	48.5	-298

Top 25 Rankings Post Week 3

               

         

The Aggregate's second Top 25 and 1 rankings of the season are out. Texas claims the new top spot. Despite losing Quinn Ewers the Longhorns topped UTSA 56-7. The Roadrunners were the 103rd ranked team coming into the week, but the lopsided victory still helped Texas surpass Tennessee this week. 

The aggregate had four teams who moved eight spots this week. Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Louisiana State, and Missouri all notched big victories. Notre Dame crushed 78th ranked Purdue 66-7. Texas A&M won at the swamp beating 43rd ranked Florida 33-20. LSU won a hotly contested contest at 22nd ranked South Carolina vaulting them back into the top 25. Missouri came back and beat 13th ranked Boston College propelling them back into the top 25.  All of these are interesting although for the eye test we think the Aggregate might have been rating Florida and Boston College too high. 

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The biggest drops this week went to Georgia, Utah and Central Florida. All of whom dropped four spots. All three teams won, but their games were much closer than the Aggregate expected. Georgia beat 63rd ranked Kentucky by one point. The Aggregate expected them to win by 18. Utah beat 113th ranked Utah State 38-21 in what was a one possession game until the 4th quarter. UCF beat 58th ranked TCU 35-34. 

Both Michigan and South Carolina dropped out of the power ranking. Carolina is referenced above, but Michigan had a lackluster performance at home against 119th ranked Arkansas State, winning 28-18.

The Aggregate included two teams in the top 25 that did not receive any votes in the AP list Baylor (2-1) and Georgia Tech (3-1). Baylor has a 2-1 record and a +19.7 average point differential against the 26th hardest schedule so far this year and Tech is 3-1 with a +18.8 point differential against the 21st hardest schedule. The Tech schedule is assuming that Florida State was actually a good team which has yet to be shown, but it also points out that Tech's loss was really not that bad. The Aggregate has Syracuse as it's 29th best team in the FBS. 

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Texas	3-0	+1	57.2	1
2	Tennessee	3-0	-1	56.7	6
3	Alabama	3-0	+1	53.3	4
4	Ohio State	2-0	-1	52.7	3
5	Miami (FL)	3-0	+1	52.2	8
6	Mississippi	3-0	-1	51.5	5
7	Notre Dame	2-1	+8	48.3	17
8	Southern California	2-0	0	45.2	11
9	Penn State	2-0	0	44.9	10
10	Oregon	3-0	+7	43.5	9
11	Georgia	3-0	-4	42.9	2
12	Clemson	1-1	0	40.9	21
13	Louisville	2-0	+1	40.4	19
14	Utah	3-0	-4	39.6	12
15	Central Florida	3-0	-4	38.8	38
16	Boston College	2-1	-3	38.7	30
17	Texas A&M	2-1	+8	37.7	25
18	Oklahoma	3-0	0	37.4	15
19	Kansas State	3-0	+1	37.3	13
20	Louisiana State	2-1	+8	36.7	16
21	Baylor	2-1	+3	36.5	#N/A
22	Georgia Tech	3-1	-3	35.9	#N/A
23	Oklahoma State	3-0	-2	35.5	14
24	Missouri	3-0	+8	35.3	7
25	Iowa	2-1	-2	35.2	33
133	Kent State	0-3	0	-12.5	#N/A