Monday, September 30, 2024

Week 5 Betting Results

 


                                                                                                                                             

The Aggregate had a tough week five so much so that we're getting even more specific about our betting strategy to ensure gains and not losses. The reason we decided to invest money this season was that last year our data indicated that if we had bet $100 on underdogs and bet to win $100 on favorites we would have made $5,000. As a result we wanted to put that data to the test. Unfortunately we don't have the bankroll to place those type of bets. We don't even have the bankroll if you take off all the zeros. After all there were some bets that were $20,000 to win $100. That's a very easy bet when your money is imaginary, but a much harder one when it's not. So we've made some adjustments that we think will pay off. We'll share our new strategy in this week's betting breakdown. The results for the week were as follows: (One special note we were unable to go game by game for ESPN's FPI prediction, we'd really love to find someone who posts this info in list form, but have not found it yet, so we only have data from their picks in the top 25.)

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Overall:

The Aggregate: 37-17 (64.9%) 

The Aggregate's main predictor. If a team has a 50.1% chance to win according to the Aggregate then they fit into this category. The Aggregate had a very tough week here. Our result data last year was a little bit higher than 70% and we expect that data to prove true again this season. Last week was about exactly that, but this week was far below it. 

ESPN's FPI: 16-4 (80%)

Taken off of ESPN's website. The FPI continues to excel this season. As we said above it was a very limited sample this week, but ESPN's FPI has had a very good percentage all year. 

W-L: 40-15 (67.3%)

We track this because it's often suggested that the most important information when predicting games is a teams win loss ratio. This is often not actually the case, but it's good to have the data to back that up. The W/L predictor did very well this week and as a matter of consequence tends to better as the season goes along.

Jeff Sagarin: 39-16 (70.9%)

By far the best predictor last year as it was at an over 80% hit rate going into the college bowl season. Sagarin is making gains. Although still getting beat by ESPN's FPI it seems like Sagarin's data is becoming more consistent. 

Vegas's Betting Line: 37-13 (74%)

The Vegas line continues to pace every metric, but ESPN's FPI early in the season. The line was notoriously wrong last year, but so far this season Vegas has been correct more often.


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Summary:

ESPN's FPI continues to lead the field in prediction although we had a very limited data sample from them this week. The Aggregate really had a tough week, but we continue to anticipate it's percentage to get better as more data comes in. Sagarin's system seemed to do exactly that this week posting 70% after a number in the 60's last week. 



Betting Results:

The Aggregate made 12 bets this week and lost six of them. This is not the type of percentage we're hoping for. The week gave us 15 games that the Aggregate predicted a win at a 90% or better chance. 11 of those games you could bet on and we bet on 10. We won only six of our single game bets and as a result lost 22.3% of our total investment. We did make double our money on our underdog pick with Alabama. The Crimson tide were a 68.8% chance to win according to the Aggregate and that bet paid off.

We made two parlay bets. One on all the games with 90% or better odds and one on just the 100% games this week. We lost both bets as Ole Miss and UCF were both predicted to have 100% chances, but fell short. 



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Single Game Bets:

Alabama over Georgia

Chance to win: 68.8%

Money line: +105

Gain %: 100.0%

Utah over Arizona

Chance to win: 95%

Money line: -395

Gain %: 7.7%

Memphis over MTSU

Chance to win: 96%

Money line: -3200

Gain %: 0.0%

Miami (OH) over Umass

Chance to win: 95%

Money line: -950

Gain %: 9.1%

Ohio State over Michigan State

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -2400

% Change: 0.0%

Ole Miss over Kentucky

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -750

% Change: 7.7% 

Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -900

% Change: 8.7%

Nebraska over Purdue

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -380

% Change: 26.1%

UCF over Colorado

Chance to win: 100% 

Money line: -550

% Change: 7.7%

Bowling Green over Old Dominion

Chance to win: 93.8%

Money line: -355

% Change: 7.3%

Parlays

5 Pick 

Miami over Virginia Tech

Nebraska over Purdue

Ole Miss over Kentucky

UCF over Colorado

Ohio State over Michigan State

Money line: -105

Return on Investment: 13.7%

11 Pick

Miami over Virginia Tech

Nebraska over Purdue

Ole Miss over Kentucky

UCF over Colorado

Ohio State over Michigan State

Army over Temple

Miami (OH) over Umass

USC over Wisconsin

Bowling Green over Old Dominion

Memphis over MTSU

Utah over Arizona

Money line: +401

ROI: 13.3%


Total

100% Single game picks: 3/5

ROI: 33.0 %

90% Single game picks: 2/4

ROI: 46.7%

Upset Game Pick: 1/1

ROI: 100%

Parlay: 0/2

ROI: 27%

Total: 6/12

ROI: 49.3%














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