College football playoff semi-final predictions. The Aggregate likes Notre Dame as a big favorite. In the second game the data is telling us it will be a much closer game with Ohio State being the slight favorite over the Longhorns.
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For the game on Thursday night the data tells us that Notre Dame is a touchdown favorite over Penn State. Often the biggest thing brought up for Notre Dame is their week two loss to Northern Illinois, but the data from this season tells us that game is the outlier for the Irish. Notre Dame's Aggregate value score for that game was a 4.3. Their next closest score to that this season for the Irish is a 38.1. In fact the range of the rest of their game value scores is 38.1-77.8. Penn State conversely has been very consistent, but they have not shown the upper end that Notre Dame has. Their range of game scores this season is 25.3-62.6.
Other metrics don't favor Notre Dame quite as much as the Aggregate. The Vegas line has them only as a 1.5 point favorite. Jeff Sagarin has them with a 58% chance to win and ESPN's FPI has them with a 58.6% chance. The Aggregate's other prediction style, the mean prediction, has the Irish with a 69.7% chance. When ESPN's FPI predicts a team in the 50.1%-59.9% chance to win they win 50% of the time. When Sagrain predicts 50.1%-59.9% they win 53.9% of the time. However, when the Aggregate mean predicts 60%-69.9% they win 74.6% of the time and when the Aggregate median predicts 70%-79.9% the team wins 71.4% of the time.
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In the week's second game the Aggregate is predicting a much closer contest. The Aggregate see's Ohio State as a slight favorite in this game. The Buckeyes are favored by one point and given a 54.2% chance below. Before the last round of the playoffs the data actually showed Texas as a slight favorite in this game, but the Buckeyes rout of Oregon and the Longhorns close game with the Sun Devils changed the data's prediction.
The Buckeyes are averaging beating their opponents by 24 points. This against the 26th hardest schedule in the country this year. The Longhorns averaged beating opponents by 19.5 points per game against a schedule that the Aggregate ranks as the 11th hardest in the country.
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