Champ Week Predictions

 Champ week Predictions for the Aggregate. The Aggregate mainly likes the favorites this week with only one exception in the median prediction model and an entirely different exception in the mean prediction model. All the teams are very well matched with only one reaching into the 60%. 

The one exception to the favorite for the Median prediction model, which has been the more accurate model, is SMU. The Mustangs are 11-1 and playing for the ACC title in their very first year in the conference. The season data tells us that SMU should beat Clemson 53.3% of the time. That's not a big advantage, but it is some. The Aggregate actually likes SMU even more than the 53.3% if the game was played at a true neutral site, but with the game in Charlotte it's giving Clemson a close to home field advantage that helps them be more in contention. Without a homefield advantage SMU's chance to win rises to 56.2% and the mean prediction (score) changes to liking the Ponies to win. 

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The exception to the favorite in the mean (score) prediction is the Arizona State Sun Devils. The mean prediction likes the Sun Devils by 1.4 points. This is in contrast to the median prediction which marks Iowa State as the favorite with a 50.3% chance to win. The mean prediction actually give Arizona State a 54.8% chance to win. Standard deviation is a large part of the mean prediction and the biggest reason it likes Arizona State is because of their low end standard deviation. While both Arizona State's top end and bottom end standard deviation are better than Iowa State's it's at the bottom end that the biggest difference occurs. If that was hard to follow basically the data tells us that the Sun Devils are noticeably better in their worst performances this year than Iowa State is and that makes them a slight favorite. 

Almost all games are a coin flip prediction although we'll point out that when the Aggregate says you have a 50% chance or better teams are winning 62.9% of the time. 

Championship Week CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Friday, December 6th
Western Kentucky	8-4	36	44.4%	+1.5		-102
Jacksonville State	8-4	40	55.6%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Tulane	9-3	42	59.2%	-4.0		-170
Army	10-1	37	40.8%	+4.0	48.5	+142
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-2	39	39.1%	+5.5		+180
Boise State	11-1	42	60.9%	-5.5	58.5	-218
Saturday, December 7th
Iowa State	10-2	32	50.3%	-1.0		-115
Arizona State	10-2	33	49.7%	+1.0	50.5	-105
Ohio	9-3	30	45.6%	-1.0		-110
Miami (OH)	8-4	34	54.4%	+1.0	45.5	-110
Texas	11-1	34	58.0%	-1.5		-118
Georgia	10-2	30	42.0%	+1.5	49.5	-102
Marshall	9-3	34	42.0%	+3.5		+140
Louisiana	10-2	36	58.0%	-3.5	58.5	-166
Southern Methodist	11-1	35	53.3%	+1.5		even
Clemson	9-3	36	46.7%	-1.5	54.5	-120
Penn State	11-1	28	46.2%	+3.0		+124
Oregon	12-0	30	53.8%	-3.0	51.5	-148