College Football Playoff Final Breakdown. We decided to give you a behind the scenes look into how we come up with our predictions and ratings for the college football playoff final. Below is an entire breakdown of almost all of the information that plays a part in our evaluations (Note: Sagarin, ESPN FPI and the Vegas and W/L columns are there just for comparison. They are not factored into the Aggregates equation.)
The Aggregate is giving Notre Dame a higher chance than most current analytics sites are right now. Out of all the predictions sites listed here the Aggregate is the most accurate when it comes to predicting games when a team has a 50%-59.9% chance to win, getting it right 60.8% of the time. In this case our prediction is the same as ESPN's FPI, Vegas and Sagarin all of whom are predicting Ohio State.
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A new feature that we added just this season was the injury impact. This category normally includes coaching changes and opt outs. Adding this category has helped us improve our bowl game accuracy. In the case of the final it has definitely made an impact. Before Notre Dame offensive lineman, Anthonie Knapp, was ruled out the Aggregate Median predictor actually favored Notre Dame, but now favors Ohio State. Typically an offensive lineman wouldn't have that much impact, but with the teams being so closely matched it pushed the favorite to Ohio State.
To help us understand how close this game is we can take a look at the teams standard deviation ranges. These ranges are determined by taking each teams assessed value from each game they played and figuring the standard deviation from those marks. When looking at the ranges Notre Dame has a higher top end to the range at 68.5 compared to Ohio State's 65.1. However, Ohio State seems more consistent with their low end of the standard deviation range being a 40.1 compared to Notre Dame's 36.5.
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