College Football Playoff Semi-final Preview Texas vs. Washington

As the college football world eagerly awaits the playoff semifinals, the matchup between the #3 Texas Longhorns and the #2 Washington Huskies is generating significant buzz. With both teams boasting impressive records and statistical strengths, this showdown promises to be a battle of titans.

Team Records:

• Texas: 12-1

• Washington: 13-0

The Longhorns, with just one loss on their record to their rival Oklahoma. They face an undefeated Washington team, setting the stage for an intense semi-final clash.

Points Per Game (PPG):

• Texas: 36.2

• Washington: 37.7

Both teams showcase potent offenses, capable of putting up substantial points. The Huskies hold a slight advantage in average points per game, highlighting their scoring prowess.

Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):

• Texas: 17.5

• Washington: 23.6

Texas boasts a stingy defense, allowing only 17.5 points per game. Washington, while solid defensively, concedes a slightly higher average, suggesting potential opportunities for the Longhorns to capitalize.

Best Wins:

• Texas: 57-7 victory vs. #35 Texas Tech

• Washington: 56-19 triumph vs. #47 Boise State

Texas’s biggest victory according to the Aggregate was a 57-7 shellacking they gave to rival Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were rated the 35th best team in the country at that time and the Longhorns had no trouble with them. Washington’s largest victory came early in the year a 56-19 beat down of non-power 5 team Boise State. The Broncos at the time were ranked as the Aggregate’s 47th best team in the country.  

Worst Games:

• Texas: 31-24 victory at #58 Houston

• Washington: 15-7 win vs. #105 Arizona State

Despite their impressive records, both teams have faced challenges in narrow victories against lower-ranked opponents. Texas had just a 7 point victory at #58 Houston who finished the season 4-8. Washington struggled to get by Arizona State who was ranked 105th in the country at that point. The Huskies won by just 8 points over a team that finished the season 3-9. 

Aggregate Ratings:

• Texas: 48.8

• Washington: 44.0

Texas holds a slight edge in the aggregate rating making them a 4.8 favorite in this game. 

Predicted Score:

• Texas: 30

• Washington: 24

The Aggregate sees Texas as slightly better than the Huskies. Predicted score is determined by teams points per game, points allowed per game and each teams Aggregate rating. 

Vegas Odds:

• Texas: -4 (Spread), -185 (Moneyline), Over/Under 63.5

• Washington: +4 (Spread), +155 (Moneyline), Over/Under 63.5

The Vegas odds indicate a closely matched game, with Texas favored by a narrow margin. The Over/Under suggests a high-scoring affair.

Chance to Win:

• Texas: 57.1%

• Washington: 42.9%

The Aggregate ran 196 simulations between both teams and found that Texas won 112 times Washington 84 times. According to the Aggregate Texas has a 57 percent chance to win. 

Consistency and Expectation:

• Texas Consistency Rating: 44.1, Rank: 38th

• Washington Consistency Rating: 54.1, Rank: 82nd

Texas boasts a lower consistency rating, reflecting their ability to deliver consistent performances throughout the season. This metric does not always show how good a team is, instead how often they perform at the same level. 

Performance Against Preseason Expectation:

• Texas: -2

• Washington: -3.2

Neither team has quite met their Aggregate preseason expectation, but they’re not far off from it. In fact both are better than their preseason rank: Texas 8th:5th, Washington 17th:12th. 

As the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies prepare to face off in this highly anticipated clash, college football fans can expect a thrilling contest with playoff implications on the line. The outcome of this semifinal promises to shape the narrative of the postseason and determine which team will advance to compete for the national championship.

CFP Semi-final Preview Alabama vs. Michigan

As the college football season reaches its pinnacle, fans are gearing up for an epic clash between the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide and the #1 Michigan Wolverines in the upcoming playoff semifinal. Both teams have had stellar seasons, boasting impressive records and statistical prowess that set the stage for a thrilling matchup.

Let's break down the numbers to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team heading into this highly anticipated showdown.

Team Records:

• Alabama: 12-1

• Michigan: 13-0

The Wolverines enter the matchup undefeated, showcasing their dominance throughout the season. However, the Crimson Tide, with just one loss, are determined to prove that they are a force to be reckoned with.

Points Per Game (PPG):

• Alabama: 35.1

• Michigan: 36.7

Both teams possess high-powered offenses, capable of putting up points in bunches. Michigan's slightly higher average indicates their explosive scoring ability, but Alabama's offense is certainly no slouch as Jalen Milroe found his groove late in the season.

Opponent Points Per Game (OPG):

• Alabama: 18.4

• Michigan: 9.5

Michigan's defense has been exceptional, holding opponents to an average of just 9.5 points per game. Although in fairness that was against a relatively weak Big 10 this year. Alabama, while solid defensively, will face a tough challenge in breaking down the Wolverines' stout defense.

Best Wins:

• Alabama: 24-10 victory vs. #4 Ole Miss

• Michigan: 49-0 blowout at #77 Michigan State

Both teams have notable victories against ranked opponents. Alabama’s came against Ole Miss whom the Aggregate had ranked as the 4th best team in the nation in that time. Michigan's dominant win over Michigan State was the Aggregates highest rated game for the Wolverines. Although not against a top rated team Michigan’s win over a rival at said rivals place was impressive.

Worst Games:

• Alabama: 17-3 victory at #119 USF

• Michigan: 31-6 win vs. #120 Bowling Green

While both teams have enjoyed success, their narrow victories over lower-ranked opponents highlight potential areas of vulnerability. It should be pointed out both of these games happened early in the season. For Alabama they had a different starting quarterback in their game.

Aggregate Ratings:

• Alabama: 47.8

• Michigan: 52.6

Michigan holds a slight advantage in the aggregate rating making them a 4.8 point Aggregate favorite 

Predicted Score:

• Alabama: 23

• Michigan: 28

The Aggregate predicts a final score of 28-23 in Michigan’s favor. The Predicted score is based on each team's rating, points per game and points allowed per game. 

Vegas Odds:

• Alabama: +1.5 (Spread), +105 (Moneyline), Over/Under 44.5

• Michigan: -1.5 (Spread), -125 (Moneyline), Over/Under 44.5

Vegas odds suggest a tight matchup, with both teams having a legitimate shot at victory. The Over/Under indicates a potentially low-scoring affair. The Aggregate predicts that the score will hit the over at 51. 

• Wins in 196 matchups: Alabama 75, Michigan 1, 120 ties

While the historical data heavily favors Alabama, this singular meeting promises to be a pivotal moment in their head-to-head record.

Chance to Win:

• Alabama: 38.5%

• Michigan: 61.5%

When calculating chance to win, the Aggregate simulates 196 matchups between the two teams. In those games Alabama won 75 times Michigan won 120 times and there was 1 tie. In the Aggregates opinion Michigan has a 61.5% chance to win the game.

Consistency and Expectation:

• Alabama Consistency Rating: 39.1, Rank: 19th

• Michigan Consistency Rating: 45.9, Rank: 46th

Alabama has been the more consistent team during this season. The consistency rating is calculated by comparing a team’s highest and lowest rating during the year. 

Performance Against Preseason Expectation:

• Alabama: -4.8

• Michigan: -0.5

Both teams have not met preseason expectations, but the Aggregate sees the Crimson Tide as the team that is the furthest from their preseason expectation. In fairness neither have fallen far. Alabama who has the biggest drop was preseason ranked 4th and the Aggregate currently has them 6th in the country.

Predicted High Score:

• Alabama: 31

• Michigan: 35

The predicted high score is based on each team’s rating, their points per game in wins and their points allowed in losses. 

As the stage is set for this colossal clash, college football enthusiasts can anticipate a matchup of titanic proportions, with two powerhouse programs vying for a spot in the national championship. Alabama's experience and Michigan's undefeated record add layers of intrigue, making this semifinal a must-watch event that could go down as an instant classic.

 

Aggregate Predictions for December 30th

 The Aggregate predictions for the Chic-Fil-A Peach Bowl, the TransPerfect Music City Bowl, the Capital One Orange Bowl and the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl. The Aggregate likes all the favorites except for one. The algorithm is betting against Vegas in the Arizona Bowl taking 11-2 Toledo over 8-4 Wyoming. The algorithm likes the Rockets by one point and in it's median prediction actually does like Wyoming. Other big differences: The Aggregate likes Georgia by just three against Florida State instead of the 14 Vegas is giving in the game. It's important to point out that the Aggregate does not consider player or coach departures. It also likes Penn State by 13. The Vegas line is only four in their game against Ole Miss. 

Aggregate Predictions for Games December 29th

The Aggregate predictions for December 29th. The Aggregate likes every one, but one favorite. It favors Ohio State above Missouri. The Tigers are 10-2, but the Aggregate has been very slow to value them. It sees Mizzou losing by 14 to Ohio State. The Aggregate also likes Clemson by 13 compared to the Vegas line of 4. It's almost perfectly in line with Vegas in the other two games though picking Notre Dame by 7, they're a 6.5 point favorite and Iowa State by 8, Vegas has them as an 8.5 point favorite. 

 

Aggregate Predictions for December 28th

The Aggregate predictions for December 28th are out. The Aggregate is picking one upset in the slate of games. It doesn't see any of the matchups being particularly close. It has the closest margin of score as just 9. The one upset the Aggregate is picking is the Oklahoma Sooners over the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona was a three point favorite at one point according to Vegas, but the Aggregate likes the Sooners by 9. How do you see the games playing out? Comment below. 

 

Aggregate Predictions for December 27th

 The Aggregate predicts one upset for bowl games on December 27th. North Carolina is almost a seven point underdog in the Duke's Mayo Bowl, but the Aggregate sees them as a six point favorite. Do you think the Tar Heels will pull it off? 

Other surprises, the Aggregate sees 6-6 Virginia Tech as  a favorite against 11-2 Tulane and 7-5 Texas A&M as much better than 9-4 Oklahoma State. Vegas agrees with the Aggregate on these games do you? 

Aggregate Predictions December 26th

 Aggregate predictions for Decebmer 26th. The Aggregate is picking one upset in the Rice Owls. The Owls are only 6-6 this season, but the Aggregate likes them by six points over Texas State. What is your opinion on these games? 

Aggregate Prediction Decemeber 23rd Bowls

 The Aggregate predicts two upsets and is split on one game for this weekend. So far the Aggregate is 6-1 in bowl games. 

The Aggregate sees Duke as the favorite against Troy. The Blue Devils have lost their coach for the game and that is likely why Vegas is favoring Troy by 7.5. It's important to remember the Aggregate doesn't factor in things like injuries, players sitting out or coaches leaving. It sees Duke as the favorite based on the games they've played this year. Do you think the Blue Devils can pull it off? 

The Aggregates second upset pick is Northern Illinois over Arkansas State. The Huskies rate as a one point favorite according to the Aggregate algorithm while Vegas sees it the other way. Either way the Aggregate sees it as an extremely close match up giving the Huskies just a .6 percent better chance of winning than the Red Wolves. Do you think the Huskies pull the upset?

The Aggregate is split on a decision between Utah State and Georgia State. This happens because of how each measurement is determined. The predicted score is determined by the total of each value from each teams games in the season. The Chance to Win is determined by using each teams values for each game and comparing them to each other. For example in this determination the values for each team were compared 169 times and Georgia State had the higher value in 85 of those comparisons leading to a 50.3 percent chance to win. Either way the margin is very thin. Who do you like in this game?

What other game stands out to you? Do you disagree with the Aggregate? 

Aggregate Predictions December 18th-22nd

 

The Aggregate predictions for next week. The Aggregate likes most of the favorites, but is split on Georgia Tech and Central Florida. The Aggregate also likes Syracuse by 13 over USF despite the Vegas line being just 3.5.  

Aggregate Predictions for Bowl Week 1

 The Aggregate see's two upsets in the first week of bowl matchups. It predicts (9-3) Ohio will upset favored (6-6) Georgia Southern by a score of 27-24. The Ealges are favored in the game by 3.5 points. The other upset the Aggregate predicts is the (8-4) Fresno State Bulldogs taking down the (10-4) New Mexico State Aggies 27-24. The Aggies are a 3 point favorite. What do you think about this weekend's matchups? 

Army Navy Game Aggregate Preview

The Historic Army-Navy Game

By: John Smith

The Army-Navy game, steeped in tradition and history, is set to unfold with both teams entering the field at 5-6, adding an extra layer of intensity to this already fierce rivalry. As the two service academies prepare to face off, the aggregate metric predicts a tight battle, foreseeing a 21-20 victory for Army with a 53.5 percent chance of success. Vegas, too, has thrown its weight behind Army, designating them as a two-point favorite.

When analyzing the statistics, Army's offense seems to lack punch. The team averages 21 points per game. And they may struggle to score against a Navy defense that concedes an average of 23 points per game.

In wins, Army's offensive capabilities soar, averaging an impressive 32 points per game. Conversely, Navy’s defense struggles in losses, allowing opponents to score an average of 37 points per game.

The aggregate's high point prediction paints an intriguing picture: a potential 35-31 victory for Army. That total would far overcome the Vegas spread which is just 27.5 points for the game. This suggests that both teams have the capability to showcase their offensive strength, setting the stage for a high-scoring showdown.

Key Wins and Losses:

Examining the season's highlights and low points adds context to the upcoming game. Army's standout victory came in a hard-fought battle at UTSA, securing a 37-29 win. The Aggregate ranks UTSA as the 53rd best team in the country, emphasizing the significance of this win for Army.

On the other hand, Navy's most notable win was a commanding 31-6 victory over UAB. However, the Aggregate places UAB at 113th in the country, raising questions about the strength of Navy's competition.

When it comes to setbacks, Army faced a tough defeat at the hands of LSU, a team currently ranked 8th by the Aggregate. The 62-0 loss highlighted the challenges Army can encounter against top-tier opponents.

Navy's worst loss came in a 32-18 defeat at the hands of Temple, a team ranked 127th by the Aggregate. This loss raises concerns about Navy's ability to withstand pressure even against lower-ranked opponents.

As the Army-Navy game unfolds, the 5-6 records of both teams add an element of unpredictability to this historic clash. The aggregate metric favors Army with a slim margin, while Vegas designates them as a two-point favorite. The game promises to be a test of strength and strategy, with both teams eager to etch their names in the annals of this storied rivalry. The historic Army-Navy game remains a spectacle, showcasing the resilience and determination of two elite military academies on the football field.

This article was written with the assistance of ChatGPT.

Aggregate What If Conference Championship games

 The Aggregate's "what if" championship week prediction. Did your team not play up to its potential this week? Or maybe they had a tougher schedule than the teams in playing in the championship game? Well this is the Aggregates "what if" prediction for each conference championship. Instead of taking the teams that actually made it to the game we took the teams that the Aggregate said were the best two teams in that conference and predicted what would happen if they played. Some games stayed the same. Some changed one opponent. The Aggregate believes the best team in the Mountain West got left out of the championship game.