College Football Top 25 Week 8

The top 25 for college football according to the aggregate. Lots of movement this week the biggest being two teams that moved double digit spots to move into the top 25 including one that lost. Also some surprising non-movers. 

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The two biggest movers were Wisconsin and South Carolina. Wisconsin gets into the top 25 for the fist time this season. The Badgers started 28th at the beginning of the season, but dipped to as low as 60th before rising the last four weeks. They are coming off of their best win of the year a 35 point drubbing of a good Rutgers team. 

South Carolina moved up double digits despite losing this week. The Aggregate rewarded the Gamecocks after they almost beat Alabama at Alabama. South Carolina was a 21.5 point underdog, but lost by only two.  

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The biggest story out of the Aggregate's top 25 is that both Oregon, ranked 9th, and Ohio State, ranked 2nd, did not move. This despite the Ducks beating the Buckeyes 32-31. To try and help make sense of this we'll breakdown how the Aggregate saw this game. First the Aggregate had going into the game Ohio State's rating as 53.8 and Oregon's as 43.1. Oregon played at home which Action network has as a homefield advantage of 2.5 points. This gave Oregon a rating of 45.6 playing at home. That meant to the Aggregate Ohio State was an 8.2 point favorite. Obviously Oregon bucked that trend winning by one at home, but a one point win at home is not worth as much as other wins. The way the Aggregate evaluates wins is it awards you the points of your opponents strength minus your homefield advantage plus how many points you beat them by so Oregon's value from the win was 53.8-2.5+1. Giving them a game value of 52.3. The Aggregates awards losers accordingly taking your opponents rating, subtracting how much you lost by and in this case adding the homefield advantage so Ohio State's game evaluation was 43.1-1+2.5. Giving them a value of 44.6. Ultimately these game values didn't change either teams average rating enough to change their rank. Ohio State lost .9 points on their rating and Oregon gained 1.0. 

Longhorns Beanie

	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Texas	6-0	0	57.5	1
2	Ohio State	5-1	0	53.2	4
3	Tennessee	5-1	0	50.1	11
4	Miami (FL)	6-0	+1	49.2	6
5	Notre Dame	5-1	+2	48.1	12
6	Mississippi	5-2	-2	48.4	18
7	Alabama	5-1	-1	46.5	7
8	Clemson	5-1	+2	44.4	10
9	Oregon	6-0	0	43.0	2
10	Georgia	5-1	-2	41.6	5
11	Penn State	6-0	0	41.6	3
12	Southern California	3-3	0	40.5	37
13	Texas A&M	5-1	0	38.8	14
14	Iowa	4-2	+3	39.1	31
15	Iowa State	6-0	+3	38.7	9
16	Louisiana State	5-1	0	37.8	8
17	Louisville	4-2	-2	38.1	36
18	Oklahoma	4-2	-4	35.6	29
19	Indiana	6-0	0	36.9	16
20	Wisconsin	4-2	+24	34.7	NR
21	Virginia Tech	3-3	0	34.4	NR
22	Arkansas	4-2	0	35.6	34
23	South Carolina	3-3	+12	35.0	NR
24	Brigham Young	6-0	+7	36.4	13
25	Kansas State	5-1	+2	33.8	17
133	Kent State	0-6	0	-12.9	NR

Week 6 College Football Predictions and Betting Guide

 Sorry guys. No predictions of betting guide this week. We are trying to get our score predictor factoring in standard deviation online. Both posts should be back next week. Thanks for your patience. 

Top 25 Rankings Week 6

 

Top 25 rankings for week six from the Aggregate. There is a new number one team. Tennessee takes the top spot from Texas after the Longhorns didn't play as well as expected against Mississippi State. The Volunteers have been at the top spot earlier this season and now have gotten back there again.

Biggest climber this week was UNLV. The Aggregate hadn't really favored the Rebels this season because despite having a 3-0 start they had a poorer strength of schedule, but Saturday's big victory against Fresno State changed that. UNLV won by 45 in a game in which the Aggregate saw it as a pick'em.

Our biggest dropper this week was the Utah Utes. The Utes struggled without Cam Rising and lost to Arizona. The Aggregate responded by dropping them 9 spots. All the way down to #23. 

Probably the most surprising team on the list is the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Tech was off this week and is only 3-2 on the season, but still ranks 23rd in the Aggregate's index. Most likely it was Georgia Tech's week 0 victory that has kept them up here although in hindsight Florida State looks like they're not a very good team. The Yellow Jackets have been in all their losses though so the data hasn't dropped them off the map completely. 

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Tennessee	4-0	+1	55.7	4
2	Texas	5-0	-1	54.6	2
3	Alabama	4-0	+1	52.6	1
4	Ohio State	4-0	+2	52.4	3
5	Miami (FL)	5-0	-2	50.5	8
6	Mississippi	4-1	-1	47.3	12
7	Notre Dame	4-1	0	46.6	14
8	Georgia	3-1	+3	44.0	5
9	Penn State	4-0	-1	43.8	7
10	Oregon	4-0	-1	43.3	6
11	Southern California	3-1	-1	42.6	11
12	Clemson	3-1	0	42.3	15
13	Louisville	3-1	0	41.5	22
14	Oklahoma	4-1	+2	38.6	19
15	Iowa	3-1	+2	38.2	30
16	Louisiana State	4-1	+5	37.1	13
17	Texas A&M	4-1	+1	36.6	T-25
18	Michigan	4-1	+2	35.5	10
19	Georgia Tech	3-2	+3	35.3	NR
20	South Carolina	3-1	+4	35.0	33
21	Indiana	5-0	+6	35.0	23
22	Nevada-Las Vegas	4-0	+31	34.6	T-25
23	Utah	4-1	-9	34.5	18
24	Kentucky	3-2	+15	34.4	35
25	Iowa State	4-0	+4	34.3	33
133	Kent State	0-5	0	-12.1	#N/A

Week 5 Betting Results

 

                                                                                                                                             

The Aggregate had a tough week five so much so that we're getting even more specific about our betting strategy to ensure gains and not losses. The reason we decided to invest money this season was that last year our data indicated that if we had bet $100 on underdogs and bet to win $100 on favorites we would have made $5,000. As a result we wanted to put that data to the test. Unfortunately we don't have the bankroll to place those type of bets. We don't even have the bankroll if you take off all the zeros. After all there were some bets that were $20,000 to win $100. That's a very easy bet when your money is imaginary, but a much harder one when it's not. So we've made some adjustments that we think will pay off. We'll share our new strategy in this week's betting breakdown. The results for the week were as follows: (One special note we were unable to go game by game for ESPN's FPI prediction, we'd really love to find someone who posts this info in list form, but have not found it yet, so we only have data from their picks in the top 25.)

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Overall:

The Aggregate: 37-17 (64.9%) 

The Aggregate's main predictor. If a team has a 50.1% chance to win according to the Aggregate then they fit into this category. The Aggregate had a very tough week here. Our result data last year was a little bit higher than 70% and we expect that data to prove true again this season. Last week was about exactly that, but this week was far below it. 

ESPN's FPI: 16-4 (80%)

Taken off of ESPN's website. The FPI continues to excel this season. As we said above it was a very limited sample this week, but ESPN's FPI has had a very good percentage all year. 

W-L: 40-15 (67.3%)

We track this because it's often suggested that the most important information when predicting games is a teams win loss ratio. This is often not actually the case, but it's good to have the data to back that up. The W/L predictor did very well this week and as a matter of consequence tends to better as the season goes along.

Jeff Sagarin: 39-16 (70.9%)

By far the best predictor last year as it was at an over 80% hit rate going into the college bowl season. Sagarin is making gains. Although still getting beat by ESPN's FPI it seems like Sagarin's data is becoming more consistent. 

Vegas's Betting Line: 37-13 (74%)

The Vegas line continues to pace every metric, but ESPN's FPI early in the season. The line was notoriously wrong last year, but so far this season Vegas has been correct more often.

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Summary:

ESPN's FPI continues to lead the field in prediction although we had a very limited data sample from them this week. The Aggregate really had a tough week, but we continue to anticipate it's percentage to get better as more data comes in. Sagarin's system seemed to do exactly that this week posting 70% after a number in the 60's last week. 

Betting Results:

The Aggregate made 12 bets this week and lost six of them. This is not the type of percentage we're hoping for. The week gave us 15 games that the Aggregate predicted a win at a 90% or better chance. 11 of those games you could bet on and we bet on 10. We won only six of our single game bets and as a result lost 22.3% of our total investment. We did make double our money on our underdog pick with Alabama. The Crimson tide were a 68.8% chance to win according to the Aggregate and that bet paid off.

We made two parlay bets. One on all the games with 90% or better odds and one on just the 100% games this week. We lost both bets as Ole Miss and UCF were both predicted to have 100% chances, but fell short. 

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Single Game Bets:

Alabama over Georgia

Chance to win: 68.8%

Money line: +105

Gain %: 100.0%

Utah over Arizona

Chance to win: 95%

Money line: -395

Gain %: 7.7%

Memphis over MTSU

Chance to win: 96%

Money line: -3200

Gain %: 0.0%

Miami (OH) over Umass

Chance to win: 95%

Money line: -950

Gain %: 9.1%

Ohio State over Michigan State

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -2400

% Change: 0.0%

Ole Miss over Kentucky

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -750

% Change: 7.7% 

Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -900

% Change: 8.7%

Nebraska over Purdue

Chance to win: 100%

Money line: -380

% Change: 26.1%

UCF over Colorado

Chance to win: 100% 

Money line: -550

% Change: 7.7%

Bowling Green over Old Dominion

Chance to win: 93.8%

Money line: -355

% Change: 7.3%

Parlays

5 Pick 

Miami over Virginia Tech

Nebraska over Purdue

Ole Miss over Kentucky

UCF over Colorado

Ohio State over Michigan State

Money line: -105

Return on Investment: 13.7%

11 Pick

Miami over Virginia Tech

Nebraska over Purdue

Ole Miss over Kentucky

UCF over Colorado

Ohio State over Michigan State

Army over Temple

Miami (OH) over Umass

USC over Wisconsin

Bowling Green over Old Dominion

Memphis over MTSU

Utah over Arizona

Money line: +401

ROI: 13.3%

Total

100% Single game picks: 3/5

ROI: 33.0 %

90% Single game picks: 2/4

ROI: 46.7%

Upset Game Pick: 1/1

ROI: 100%

Parlay: 0/2

ROI: 27%

Total: 6/12

ROI: 49.3%

Week 5 Betting Guide

   

The Aggregate's week five picks are out and that means it's time for our inaugural betting guide. Here are the games the Aggregate is betting on or at least considering for week five. 

Betting Breakdown:

Upset of the week: 4.8%

Games of the week (9): 70.9% (7.9%/game)

Parlay: 28% (14%/per parlay)

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Upset of the Week

Our upset of the week will give you a team that is plus money and still favored to win according to the Aggregate median predictor. This week we had four games we considered, but are putting money on Alabama over Georgia. When the game originally came out a money line bet on Alabama was getting +136. This combined with our predictor giving them a 68.8% chance to win is just too good to pass up. 

Pick: Alabama over UGA +136 68.8%CTW

Other upset candidates:

Washington State over Boise State +270 55% CTW

Washington over Rutgers +114 55% CTW

Fresno State over UNLV +164 50%CTW

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Game Picks

Every game that the Aggregate is picking this week is a 90% or higher chance to win. It is abnormal to see this many games with betting lines that the algorithm likes this much. We broke it down into two categories. 100% chance to win meaning the Aggregate thinks there is no chance they lose and 90% chance to win meaning the algorithm thinks their chances are 90% or better to win. So far this season teams are 13-1 (92.9%) with 100% chance to win and 16-2 (88.9%) when the Aggregate sees them as a 90% chance to win.

100% Chance to Win 

Picks:

Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech -1200

Nebraska over Purdue -340

Ole Miss over Kentucky -1350

UCF over Colorado -700

Ohio State over Michigan State -5000

Non Picks: (The Aggregate couldn't get a betting line for these next games, but if you can it would be worth it.)

Syracuse over Holy Cross

Texas over Mississippi State

Florida Atlantic over Wagner

Kennesaw State over UT Martin

90% Chance to Win

Picks:

Memphis over MTSU -1800 (96%)

Utah over Arizona -455 (95%)

Miami (OH) over Umass -750 (95%)

Bowling Green over ODU -360 (93.8%)

Non Picks: (But still over 90%)

USC over Wisconsin -675 (93.8%)

Army over Temple -520 (90%)

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Parlays

We divided up our parlay pick this week. Splitting the money between a pick on just the 100% games and a pick that includes all 90-100% games. 

100% Parlay-5 games -115

Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech 

Nebraska over Purdue 

Ole Miss over Kentucky 

UCF over Colorado 

Ohio State over Michigan State

90% or Higher Parlay-11 games +360

Miami (FL) over Virginia Tech 

Nebraska over Purdue 

Ole Miss over Kentucky 

UCF over Colorado 

Ohio State over Michigan State 

Memphis over MTSU 

Utah over Arizona 

Miami (OH) over Umass 

Bowling Green over ODU 

USC over Wisconsin 

Army over Temple

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