Adjusted Win Percentage For FBS Independent Coaches

Over the next coming weeks before I break out predictions and rankings for each FBS conference I wanted to introduce a new analytic. I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually are as it does not factor in a multitude of issues including environment, player talent, competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results. 

With all that being said I will be laying out each conference with teams and coach and what their adjusted win percentage is in the next week or so.

First up is the FBS Independents. There are only three unaffiliated teams this season in the FBS and for sure they're led by Notre Dame and fairly new head coach Marcus Freeman. I have to admit I had my doubts about Freeman, but he has prevailed and many see the Irish as a possible national title contender this season. Interestingly all three coaches in this grouping are going into their third year, but at this point only one has had success. 

IND Coaches	Team	W	L	Pct
Marcus Freeman	Notre Dame	14.5	5.25	73.4%
Jim Mora	UConn	32.75	36.5	47.3%
Don Brown	UMass	3.5	14.5	19.4%

Best Coaching Jobs in 2023 (Point Differential Above Expected)

7/22/24 Correction: There was an error on the formula page when I first calculated it. I’ve fixed it and it changed the results slightly. Who did the best coaching jobs in 2023? This measurement might give us an idea. The was the Aggregate metric works we can come up with a rating of points above expected. This statistic is measuring how well a team actually did as compared to what they were supposed to do before the season.  In this case each measurement shows the difference in point differential for each team than what was expected. Do not expect to see Michigan on this list. The Wolverines were the Aggregates preseason #3 and they finished #1 and yet they finished  with a -0.5 points worse than expected rating, meaning that their differential was just 0.5 points off what the Aggregate expected. That made them 42nd on the list.

#1 Jedd Fisch-Arizona

Point Differential Above Expected: +16.9

Record in '22: 5-7 (3-6)

Record in '23: 10-3 (7-2)

Fisch finally achieved success in his 3rd year in Tuscon. The Wildcats went from the back of the pack in the Pac 12 to the top in what ended up being the Aggregates 2nd best rated conference. Fisch took his success and headed to Washington for the 2024 season.

#2 G.J. Kinne-Texas State

Point Differential Above Expected: +15.4

Record in '22: 4-8 (2-6)

Record in '23: 8-5 (4-4)

Kinne came from FCS school Incarnate Word and had success in his very first season. Some of the highlights include beating Baylor and S#outh Alabama in a bowl game. Don't let the 4-4 Sunbelt record fool you as the Aggregate had the Sunbelt as the best group of five conference. Kinne returned to the Bobcats for the 2024 season.

#3  Rich Rodriguez-Jacksonville State

Point Differential Above Expected: +15.3

Record in '22: 9-2 (5-0) (All games against FCS opponents)

Record in '23: 9-4 (6-2)

Rodriguez helped guide Jacksonville State through their transition to the FBS and the Gamecocks had no issues. The Gamecocks won their first bowl game in their first year in the FBS. No team has ever done that before. Rodriguez returned to Jacksonville State for the 2024 season.

#4 Jamey Chadwell-Liberty

Point Differential Above Expected: +14.2

Record in '22: 8-5 

Record in '23: 13-1 (8-0)

Chadwell moved took the reins from Hugh Freeze and the Flames have soared. Liberty won Conference USA last year their first year in the conference. Liberty had one of the easiest schedules in the nation, but did even better than expected against those opponents. Chadwell returned to the Flames for the 2024 season.

#5 Barry Odom-UNLV

Point Differential Above Expected: +14.0

Record in '22: 5-7 (3-5)

Record in '23: 9-5 (6-3)

Odom changed the perspective in UNLV and made them a contender in his very first year. The Rebels played in the Mountain West Championship and went to a bowl game for the first time since 2013. Odom returned to UNLV for the 2024 season.

#6 Deion Sanders-Colorado +11.4

#7 Brent Brennan-San Jose State (Now at Arizona) +10.7

#8 Alex Golesh-USF +10.5

#9 Ricky Rahne-Old Dominion +9.7

#10 Scott Loeffler-Bowling Green +9.3

Rest of the List:

11	Western Michigan	8.0
12	Georgia Tech	8.0
13	Rice	7.9
14	VT	7.3
15	Utah State	7.0
16	Arkansas State	6.7
17	New Mexico State	6.5
18	Miami (OH)	6.4
19	Oregon	4.6
20	SMU	4.2
21	Colorado State	3.9
22	Rutgers	3.8
23	New Mexico	3.7
24	Tulsa	3.6
25	Northwestern	3.5
26	Georgia State	3.5
27	Wyoming	3.0
28	Coastal Carolina	2.9
29	Hawaii	2.6
30	Stanford	2.5
31	James Madison	2.1
32	Virginia	2.0
33	Georgia Southern	1.7
34	Louisville	1.4
35	NIU	1.4
36	Sam Houston	1.3
37	Purdue	0.9
38	Michigan	0.3
39	ULM	0.2
40	Missouri	0.1
41	Indiana	0.1
42	Charlotte	-0.2
43	West Virginia	-0.3
44	Oklahoma	-0.4
45	UMass	-0.7
46	Washington State	-0.7
47	Troy	-0.8
48	Notre Dame	-0.9
49	Kansas State	-1.2
50	UAB	-1.5
51	California	-2.5
52	Georgia	-2.7
53	Texas	-2.7
54	Boston College	-3.0
55	East Carolina	-3.1
56	Ball State	-3.1
57	Washington	-3.3
58	LSU	-3.7
59	Penn State	-3.8
60	Arizona State	-4.2
61	Maryland	-4.3
62	Alabama	-4.3
63	North Texas	-4.4
64	Kansas	-4.4
65	Iowa State	-4.8
66	Ohio State	-4.8
67	Appalachian State	-5.1
68	Louisiana	-5.2
69	Central Michigan	-5.4
70	Syracuse	-5.5
71	NC State	-5.5
72	Army	-5.5
73	Air Force	-5.6
74	Louisiana Tech	-5.9
75	Houston	-5.9
76	Ole Miss	-6.0
77	Vanderbilt	-6.5
78	Kent State	-6.8
79	Nevada	-6.8
80	Florida Atlantic	-6.9
81	Boise State	-7.1
82	Ohio	-7.2
83	Cincinnati	-7.3
84	Miami (FL)	-7.5
85	Memphis	-7.6
86	FIU	-7.8
87	Duke	-7.9
88	UCF	-7.9
89	Wake Forest	-8.0
90	Navy	-8.0
91	Akron	-8.1
92	Nebraska	-8.1
93	MTSU	-8.2
94	Oklahoma State	-8.4
95	Tulane	-8.8
96	Fresno State	-8.9
97	Buffalo	-8.9
98	Conneticut	-9.2
99	Florida State	-9.3
100	Toledo	-9.6
101	UTSA	-9.6
102	Michigan State	-9.7
103	Oregon State	-9.7
104	Eastern Michigan	-9.7
105	Texas A&M	-10.4
106	BYU	-10.4
107	South Alabama	-10.5
108	Tennesse	-10.7
109	UNC	-11.3
110	Temple	-11.4
111	Auburn	-11.6
112	Kentucky	-11.6
113	Texas Tech	-11.9
114	UCLA	-11.9
115	Clemson	-12.0
116	South Carolina	-12.1
117	Florida	-12.7
118	WKU	-12.8
119	TCU	-13.5
120	Southern Miss	-14.4
121	USC	-14.5
122	UTEP	-15.8
123	Wisconsin	-16.2
124	Arkansas	-16.4
125	Utah	-16.7
126	San Diego State	-16.9
127	Minnesota	-17.2
128	Marshall	-17.5
129	Mississippi State	-18.7
130	Baylor	-19.6
131	Illinois	-19.9
132	Iowa	-19.9
133	Pittsburgh	-21.1

New Rankings and Content Coming Soon

 Just wanted to get on and say that I am diligently working on the data and preparing to release preseason rankings soon. I will be endeavoring to not only publish rankings this year, but also full predictions and podcast about some of the best bets each week. Thanks for reading my content. More coming soon. 

Big 12 End of the Year Aggregate Rankings

 The end of the year Aggregate rankings for the Big 12 are out. The conference experienced movement in the middle of the rankings after the bowl season. West Virginia got the biggest boost after their win over North Carolina. Texas Tech moved up one after beating Cal. TCU got a boost as well although that had nothing to do with the Horned Frogs and everything to do with an Iowa State loss. The same was true for UCF who dropped after beating Georgia Tech. 

Big 10 End of Year Rankings

 The end of the year rankings for the Big 10 are here. The Aggregate had no changes at the top of the conference, but did have some other moves. Rutgers rose a spot after their bowl win over Miami. Iowa dropped even further after their bowl loss. The Hawkeyes lack of offense continues to keep their Aggregate rating down. Northwestern jumped two spots up to #9 after their bowl victory pushing Purdue and Illinois further down. 

ACC End of Year Rankings

The end of year rankings for the ACC. Both Miami and Duke move up one while North Carolina drops two. North Carolina dropped after a 20 point loss to West Virginia in the Duke's Mayo Bowl. Miami rose one despite a 7 point loss to Rutgers in the Pinstripe bowl. Duke moved up one after a 7 point win over Troy in the Birmingham Bowl. Syracuse also fell two spots after a horrid showing against USF. The Orange lost by 45 points to the Bulls. This allowed Pitt who didn't play in a bowl game and Boston College who beat SMU to move up. 

 

Year End Rankings for the Sunbelt Conference

 The end of the year rankings are out for the Sunbelt Conference. James Madison and Troy kept their positions in 1st and 2nd despite losing their bowl games. South Alabama moved up to 3rd after their impressive showing against Eastern Michigan. App State dropped one despite their win over Miami (OH). Texas State gained one spot after their win against Rice. Louisiana dropped one after a loss to Jacksonville State. Georgia State came up four spots after impressively beating Utah State. Georgia Southern dopped one after their loss. Finally Marshall dropped 3 spots after a disappointing loss to UTSA.