Champ Week Ranks

                                               

Champ Week Rankings for the Aggregate. The Aggregate has dropped all non power four teams out of their top 25. It has five SEC schools, four Big 10 schools, and surprisingly two ACC schools in their top 12, but not the two you might think. There is also a power four school that will be fighting to get into the playoff this weekend that the Aggregate doesn't even believe is in the top 25.

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Boise State is guaranteed a spot in the CFP if they win Friday, but the Aggregate has them only as the 39th best team in the country. The Aggregate actually has Tulane as a better team than the Broncos. If the two met on a neutral field the Aggregate would favor Tulane by 2.9 points. Boise's play has been questionable lately. Post week 10 the Aggregate had the Broncos 27th, but since then they have had some close games against bad teams. Over their past four games Boise played teams that on average were ranked 98th in the country and beat those teams by an average of only 12 points. That included a 7 point win over Nevada, ranked 94th, and a 4 point win over Wyoming, ranked 119th. 

The data continues to prove that the power 4 conferences are the strongest in the country with two especially standing out. The Aggregate see's five SEC schools in their top 12. In order those schools are Texas (2), Ole Miss (4), Alabama (5), Tennessee (6) and Georgia (11). Other SEC schools that the Aggregate has in the top 25 South Carolina (14), LSU (21), Texas A&M (22) and Florida (24). The Big 10 has four schools in the top 12. In order those schools are Ohio State (3), Oregon (7), Penn State (8) and Indiana (9). They have two more schools in the top 25 Iowa (15) and Michigan (24). 

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The conference that is possibly the surprise is the ACC with two schools in the top 12 and 5 in the top 25.  The Aggregate unsurprisingly likes Miami still in the top 12 at 10th, but surprisingly likes Louisville as the 2nd best team in the ACC at 12th. The Cardinals have four losses, but three out of those four were to teams ranked in the top 13 in the Aggregate. Ironically all of those losses were just by 7 points. The loss that probably doomed the Cardinals season was their fourth. They lost by 3 at (3-9) Stanford. Without that loss we believe the Cardinals would have had a real case for the CFP despite not being able to play in the ACC championship game.      

Iowa State is 10-2 and will play Arizona State 10-2 to get into the CFP this weekend, but even if the Cyclones win the data tells us that they won't belong. To be fair Iowa State is not far off the list. They're ranked 27th in the post regular season rankings and would only be about a 5.5 point underdog to the #12 team. The reason the Cyclones don't rank higher? They're 53rd in strength of schedule and only +11.6 in point differential. 

	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	CFP Ranking
1	Notre Dame	11-1	0	52.6	4
2	Texas	11-1	+1	50.6	2
3	Ohio State	10-2	-1	49.6	6
4	Mississippi	9-3	0	47.4	13
5	Alabama	9-3	0	46.9	11
6	Tennessee	10-2	0	46.0	7
7	Oregon	12-0	+2	45.7	1
8	Penn State	11-1	+2	44.8	3
9	Indiana	11-1	+2	44.4	9
10	Miami (FL)	10-2	-3	44.3	12
11	Georgia	10-2	-3	44.0	5
12	Louisville	8-4	+1	40.1	NR
13	Southern Methodist	11-1	+3	38.9	8
14	South Carolina	9-3	+1	38.6	14
15	Iowa	8-4	-3	38.4	NR
16	Clemson	9-3	-2	37.8	17
17	Colorado	9-3	+7	37.2	23
18	Southern California	6-6	-1	36.9	NR
19	Louisiana State	8-4	+1	36.7	NR
20	Texas A&M	8-4	-2	36.5	NR
21	Arizona State	10-2	+4	36.5	15
22	Florida	7-5	-3	36.5	NR
23	Baylor	8-4	+5	36.1	NR
24	Michigan	7-5	+6	35.7	NR
25	Virginia Tech	6-6	+3	35.5	NR
133	Kent State	0-12	0	-16.0	NR