Thursday, August 15, 2024

Top 25 Coaches in Adjusted Win Percentage


 

We've been rolling out the adjusted win percentage metric over the past couple weeks conference by conference, but now it's time to look at the coaches from the national perspective. We're highlighting just the top 25 here, but check the bottom of the post for the whole list. So without further ado here is the top 25 fbs football coaches with adjusted win percentage.

RankCoachTeamWLAdjusted W PctTraditional W PctDifferenceConference
1Sherrone MooreMichigan0.10.0100.0%100.0%0.0%B10
2Kirby SmartGeorgia78.7510.588.2%85.5%2.7%SEC
3Ryan DayOhio State46.97.586.2%87.5%-1.3%B10
4Curt CignettiIndiana15.02.585.7%82.6%3.1%B10
5Jon SumrallTulane17.03.085.0%85.2%-0.2%AAC
6Dan LanningOregon17.03.582.9%81.5%1.4%B10
7Dabo SwinneyClemson154.332.182.8%79.8%3.0%ACC
8Kalen DeboerAlabama306.582.2%80.4%1.8%SEC
9LIncoln RileyUSC53.514.079.3%80.4%-1.1%B10
10Luke FickellWisconsin53.815.877.3%69.6%7.7%B10
11Jeff TraylorUTSA35.511.575.5%73.6%1.9%AAC
12Jamey ChadwellLiberty42.014.075.0%69.3%5.7%CUSA
13Spencer DanielsonBoise State0.80.375.0%75.0%0.0%MW
14Brian KellyLSU1424874.7%72.9%1.8%SEC
15Marcus FreemanNotre Dame14.55.2573.4%70.4%3.0%Ind
16Rhett LashleeSMU14.56.070.7%66.7%4.0%ACC
17James FranklinPenn State88.837.570.3%67.5%2.8%B10
18Billy NapierFlorida37.2515.7570.3%66.2%4.1%SEC
19Mike NorvellFlorida State54.523.370.1%67.6%2.5%ACC
20Josh HeupelTennessee4117.7569.8%73.3%-3.5%SEC
21Mack BrownUNC252.0109.569.7%65.7%4.0%ACC
22Mike GundyOk St157.869.369.5%67.8%1.7%B12
23Lane KiffinOle Miss64.753068.3%66.2%2.1%SEC
24Kyle WhittinghamUtah149.671.867.6%67.2%0.4%B12
25Brent VenablesOklahoma136.566.7%61.5%5.2%SEC



Technically Sherrone Moore is leading the way, but with an extremely small sample size. That should change by the end of this year. The next coach on the list though is likely to stay there and no doubt he deserves it after the job he's done at Georgia. Kirby Smart has made the Bulldogs once again a dynasty and that is reflected here in his adjusted winning percentage. Smart has an adjusted win rate of 88.2%, 2.7 percentage points higher than his traditional. This means that Smart's program has gotten better the longer he's been there despite the fact that Georgia was a very good program when they hired him. 

The Big 10 also looks dominant with four of the top six coaches on this list. However, if we take a deeper look at that, two are likely to change. Moore, who we already referenced, has one collegiate game under his belt. Cignetti, who was dominant at James Madison, is now at Indiana and facing a whole different level of competition. 

The Big 10 has seven coaches here in the top 25. The SEC also equals that mark. The ACC has four teams. The Big 12 and American conference both only have two. Conference USA, the Mountain West and Independents each have one. 

Note: Coaches who have not coached an FBS game yet are not included on this list. The adjusted win percentage is based on a coaches win/loss record with consideration for when a coach first begins at a program. Basically a coaches records their first few years with a program are not given as much weight as their later years. 

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The entire list of coaches is below:

RankCoachTeamWLAdjusted W PctTraditional W PctDifferenceConference
1Sherrone MooreMichigan0.10.0100.0%100.0%0.0%B10
2Kirby SmartGeorgia78.7510.588.2%85.5%2.7%SEC
3Ryan DayOhio State46.97.586.2%87.5%-1.3%B10
4Curt CignettiIndiana15.02.585.7%82.6%3.1%B10
5Jon SumrallTulane17.03.085.0%85.2%-0.2%AAC
6Dan LanningOregon17.03.582.9%81.5%1.4%B10
7Dabo SwinneyClemson154.332.182.8%79.8%3.0%ACC
8Kalen DeboerAlabama306.582.2%80.4%1.8%SEC
9LIncoln RileyUSC53.514.079.3%80.4%-1.1%B10
10Luke FickellWisconsin53.815.877.3%69.6%7.7%B10
11Jeff TraylorUTSA35.511.575.5%73.6%1.9%AAC
12Jamey ChadwellLiberty42.014.075.0%69.3%5.7%CUSA
13Spencer DanielsonBoise State0.80.375.0%75.0%0.0%MW
14Brian KellyLSU1424874.7%72.9%1.8%SEC
15Marcus FreemanNotre Dame14.55.2573.4%70.4%3.0%Ind
16Rhett LashleeSMU14.56.070.7%66.7%4.0%ACC
17James FranklinPenn State88.837.570.3%67.5%2.8%B10
18Billy NapierFlorida37.2515.7570.3%66.2%4.1%SEC
19Mike NorvellFlorida State54.523.370.1%67.6%2.5%ACC
20Josh HeupelTennessee4117.7569.8%73.3%-3.5%SEC
21Mack BrownUNC252.0109.569.7%65.7%4.0%ACC
22Mike GundyOk St157.869.369.5%67.8%1.7%B12
23Lane KiffinOle Miss64.753068.3%66.2%2.1%SEC
24Kyle WhittinghamUtah149.671.867.6%67.2%0.4%B12
25Brent VenablesOklahoma136.566.7%61.5%5.2%SEC
26Tim AlbinOhio21.511.565.2%59.0%6.2%MAC
27Hugh FreezeAuburn6333.7565.1%64.0%1.1%SEC
28PJ FleckMinnesota66.035.864.9%58.8%6.1%B10
29Bronco MendenhallNew Mexico115.362.864.7%62.5%2.2%MW
30Tom HermanFAU31.517.364.6%65.9%-1.3%AAC
31Kirk FerentzIowa192.0105.864.5%62.2%2.3%B10
32Shawn ClarkApp State29.816.564.3%66.0%-1.7%Sunbelt
33Jason CandleToledo50.129.063.3%65.0%-1.7%MAC
34Lance LeipoldKU46.827.363.2%50.0%13.2%B12
35Gus MalzahnUCF75.044.362.9%65.2%-2.3%B12
36Dave DoerenNC State81.348.562.6%62.7%-0.1%ACC
37Rich RodriguezJacksonville St.94.856.862.5%59.3%3.2%CUSA
38Eliah DrinkwitzMizzou31.51962.4%64.5%-2.1%SEC
39Mike ElkoTexas A&M11.5762.2%64.0%-1.8%SEC
40Ryan SilverfieldMemphis27.016.562.1%63.3%-1.2%AAC
41Chris KliemanKansas State35.021.561.9%61.9%0.0%B12
42Steve SarkisianTexas51.2531.7561.7%59.2%2.5%SEC
43Matt RhuleNebraska38.323.861.7%51.0%10.7%B10
44Manny DiazDuke18.511.561.7%58.3%3.4%ACC
45Tim BeckCoastal Carolina4.02.561.5%61.5%0.0%Sunbelt
46G.J. KinneTexas State4.02.561.5%61.5%0.0%Sunbelt
47David BraunNorthwestern2.01.361.5%61.5%0.0%B10
48Kalani SitakeBYU50.53261.2%59.8%1.4%B12
49Neal BrownWVU52.833.561.2%59.5%1.7%B12
50Bill O'BrienBoston College5.53.561.1%62.5%-1.4%ACC
51Troy CalhounAir Force117.375.360.9%61.3%-0.4%MW
52Scott SatterfieldCincinnati56.336.560.6%60.5%0.1%B12
53Bret BielemaIllinois89.558.360.6%59.9%0.7%B10
54Jeff TedfordFresno State101.867.860.0%61.7%-1.7%MW
55Jeff MonkenArmy64.042.860.0%56.0%4.0%AAC
56Jeff BrohmLouisville48.332.559.8%61.3%-1.5%ACC
57Major ApplewhiteS. Alabama5.83.959.7%57.7%2.0%Sunbelt
58Tyson HeltonW. Kentucky35.524.059.7%60.6%-0.9%CUSA
59Matt CampbellIowa St66.446.059.1%58.3%0.8%B12
60Sonny DykesTCU61.542.659.1%55.3%3.8%B12
61Charles HuffMarshall18.514.056.9%56.4%0.5%Sunbelt
62Mark StoopsKentucky67.7552.2556.5%52.9%3.6%SEC
63Joey McGuireTexas Tech11.08.556.4%57.7%-1.3%B12
64Pat NarduzziPittsburgh53.842.056.1%56.5%-0.4%ACC
65Ken NiumataloloSan Jose State95.875.456.0%56.8%-0.8%MW
66Clay HeltonGSU37.129.355.9%60.4%-4.5%Sunbelt
67Blake AndersonUtah State56.844.855.9%57.8%-1.9%MW
68Jim McElwainC. Michigan46.837.555.5%56.6%-1.1%MAC
69Willie FritzHouston48.338.855.5%57.1%-1.6%B12
70Butch JonesArk St61.550.055.2%54.3%0.9%Sunbelt
71Barry OdomUNLV21.017.354.9%53.1%1.8%MW
72Jonathan SmithMichigan State3125.7554.6%49.3%5.3%B10
73Dave ClawsonWake Forest82.069.054.3%50.5%3.8%ACC
74Jay NorvellColorado State33.328.354.1%49.4%4.7%MW
75Alex GoleshUSF3.53.053.8%53.8%0.0%AAC
76Bryant VincentULM1.81.553.8%53.8%0.0%Sunbelt
77Chuck MartinMiami (OH)51.544.853.5%47.5%6.0%MAC
78Mario CristobalMiami57.851.153.0%50.3%2.7%ACC
79Brent KeyGT9.08.052.9%52.4%0.5%ACC
80Shane BeamerSouth Carolina16.51552.4%52.6%-0.2%SEC
81Dave ArandaBaylor22.021.550.6%47.9%2.7%B12
82Greg SchianoRutgers78.378.050.1%47.8%2.3%B10
83Jedd FischWashington15.615.650.0%43.6%6.4%B10
84Sam PittmanArkansas21.521.550.0%47.9%2.1%SEC
85Pete LemboBuffalo21.521.849.7%53.2%-3.5%MAC
86Brent BrennanArizona32.032.549.6%41.5%8.1%B12
87Sean LewisSan Diego State20.822.048.5%43.6%4.9%MW
88Chris CreightonE. Michigan48.353.547.4%43.3%4.1%MAC
89Jim MoraUConn32.7536.547.3%54.5%-7.2%Ind
90Michael DesormeauxLouisiana9.310.546.8%48.1%-1.3%Sunbelt
91Jake DickertWashington State9.310.846.3%48.4%-2.2%Pac12
92Brent PryVa Tech8.510.045.9%41.7%4.2%ACC
93Justin WilcoxCalifornia28.834.845.3%45.6%-0.3%ACC
94Mike MacintyreFIU41.350.844.8%40.0%4.8%CUSA
95Mike LocksleyMaryland27.435.443.6%34.4%9.2%B10
96Mike NeuBall State32.043.042.7%39.8%2.9%MAC
97Mike HoustonEast Carolina22.030.042.3%41.4%0.9%AAC
98Thomas HammockNIU21.529.542.2%42.1%0.1%MAC
99Eric MorrisUNT2.53.541.7%41.7%0.0%AAC
100Brian NewberryNavy2.53.541.7%41.7%0.0%AAC
101Kevin WilsonTulsa24.037.039.3%35.3%4.0%AAC
102Ricky RahneOld Dominion12.019.538.1%39.5%-1.4%Sunbelt
103Scot LoefflerBowling Green18.530.537.8%36.4%1.4%MAC
104Will HallSouthern Miss11.519.537.1%35.1%2.0%Sunbelt
105Mike BloomgrenRice19.035.534.9%32.4%2.5%AAC
106Tony SanchezNMSU14.527.534.5%33.3%1.2%CUSA
107Timmy ChangHawai'i6.513.033.3%30.8%2.5%MW
108Derek MasonMTSU21.342.533.3%32.9%0.4%CUSA
109Lance TaylorW. Michigan2.04.033.3%33.3%0.0%MAC
110Trent DilferUAB2.04.033.3%33.3%0.0%AAC
111Ryan WaltersPurdue2.04.033.3%33.3%0.0%B10
112Deion SandersColorado2.04.033.3%33.3%0.0%B12
113Joe MoorheadAkron12.028.329.8%36.0%-6.2%MAC
114Clark LeaVanderbilt82226.7%25.0%1.7%SEC
115Tony ElliottVirginia4.512.526.5%27.3%-0.8%ACC
116Sonny CumbieLa Tech5.014.326.0%27.6%-1.6%CUSA
117K.C. KeelerSam Houston1.54.525.0%25.0%0.0%CUSA
118Scotty WaldenUtep0.30.825.0%25.0%0.0%CUSA
119Biff PoggiCharlotte1.54.525.0%25.0%0.0%AAC
120Stan DraytonTemple4.513.525.0%25.0%0.0%AAC
121Troy TaylorStanford1.54.525.0%25.0%0.0%ACC
122Kenny DillinghamAZ St1.54.525.0%25.0%0.0%B12
123Don BrownUMass3.514.519.4%16.7%2.7%Ind
124Kenni BurnsKent State0.55.58.3%8.3%0.0%MAC
125Gerad ParkerTroy0.00.80.0%0.0%
0.0%Sunbelt

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