Bowl Week 2 Predictions

Predictions for Bowl Week 2. The Aggregate went 9-2 in first bowl week projections. This week there are no playoff games so we just look at the traditional bowl slate. The Aggregate likes three different upsets this week. We're giving Navy a slight edge over Oklahoma, Boston College a pretty good chance to beat Nebraska and  Miami a big chance to take down Iowa State. 

With injuries and opt outs we've actually just raised Navy's chance to win to 53.8%. We don't have the resources to be able to do automatic updates to the story yet, but after computing the latest that's the percentage. The Sooners have been hit hard by the transfer portal and we have them losing as much as 33% production from some of their games this season. Navy on the other hand has everyone including Blake Horvath, their starting quarterback, whom they were missing earlier in the season. 

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Boston College has been good to us all season at the Aggregate. Vegas and others continue to under value the Eagles and this bowl season is no different. The opening line for the BC vs. Nebraska game made Boston College a 2.5 point underdog, but the data tells us that the Eagles have almost a 60% chance to win. Both of these teams have a reputation for beating bad teams this year and losing to good teams. Four of Boston College's losses were to teams ranked 32nd or higher. Five of Nebraska's losses were to teams ranked 34th or higher. 

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Lastly the data likes Miami (FL) over Iowa State. The Canes have been an offensive juggernaut this season, but have done a poor job of stopping their opponents. Iowa State conversely is only giving up 21 points per game. However, in three games this season Iowa State has given up 35 points or more and have gone 1-2 in those contests. That is how the Aggregate see's this game playing out, a 42-33 high scoring loss for State.  

                                             

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from the Aggregate!

Coastal Carolina	6-6	37	44.4%	+6.5		+190
Texas-San Antonio	6-6	39	55.6%	-6.5	57.5	-230
Northern Illinois	7-5	26	36.7%	-1.5		-120
Fresno State	6-6	28	63.3%	+1.5	42	even
South Florida	6-6	43	52.1%	+2.5		+114
San Jose State	7-5	42	47.9%	-2.5	63.5	-135
Pittsburgh	7-5	34	76.3%	-9.5		-325
Toledo	7-5	21	23.7%	+9.5	51.5	+260
Rutgers	7-5	28	33.7%	+6.5		+190
Kansas State	8-4	35	66.3%	-6.5	50.5	-230
Arkansas State	7-5	25	29.0%	+6.5		+185
Bowling Green	7-5	38	71.0%	-6.5	49.5	-225
Oklahoma	6-6	36	49.1%	-9.0		-305
Navy	9-3	33	50.9%	+9.0	46.5	+245
Georgia Tech	7-5	31	59.8%	-2.5		-130
Vanderbilt	6-6	27	40.2%	+2.5	54.5	+110
Texas Tech	8-4	36	36.7%	+2.5		+110
Arkansas	6-6	42	63.3%	-2.5	59.5	-130
Syracuse	9-3	35	82.8%	-5.5		-218
Washington State	8-4	20	17.2%	+5.5	60.5	+180
Texas A&M	8-4	33	55.0%	-1.0		-115
Southern California	6-6	31	45.0%	+1.0	50.5	-105
Connecticut	8-4	40	48.5%	+5.5		+170
North Carolina	6-6	37	51.5%	-5.5	56.5	-205
Boston College	7-5	31	59.8%	+2.5		+110
Nebraska	6-6	26	40.2%	-2.5	45.5	-130
Louisiana	10-3	24	27.5%	+8.5		+270
Texas Christian	8-4	33	72.5%	-8.5	60.5	-340
Iowa State	10-3	33	34.1%	-1.0		-115
Miami (FL)	10-2	42	65.9%	+1.0	53.5	-105
Miami (OH)	8-5	32	53.8%	-1.5		-118
Colorado State	8-4	27	46.2%	+1.5	43.5	-102
East Carolina	7-5	25	26.0%	+5.0		+170
North Carolina State	6-6	37	74.0%	-5.0	59.5	-205
Brigham Young	10-2	31	48.5%	+2.5		+110
Colorado	9-3	35	51.5%	-2.5	54.5	-130
Louisiana Tech	5-8	9	14.3%	+16.5		+525
Army	11-2	30	85.7%	-16.5	43.5	-750

Bowl Week 1 Predictions

 

Predictions for Bowl week 1. The Aggregate likes most of  the favorites in week one of the college bowl season. It does predict one victory for a non power 4 team over a power 4 team, but see's another non-power 4 team, who spent a good deal of the year ranked in the top 25, as a loser to a 6-6 power 4 squad. It also doesn't see any of the CFP games as being particularly close. 

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The Aggregate is picking the Memphis Tigers to beat West Virginia on Tuesday in the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl. The Mountaineers were originally the favorites in this game as shown below, but that is no longer the case. DraftKings now has Memphis -190. West Virginia was the better team this season, but they are hemorrhaging after losing their head coach. In addition to their head coach the team will not have 11 of their players or their former defensive coordinator. The Aggregate has them at about 60% of their regular season strength. 

The Aggregate is picking #24 UNLV to lose to the Cal Golden Bears. The Aggregate is predicting that the loss of head coach Barry Odom will be too much for the Runnin Rebels. This all despite Cal's loss of their starting quarterback, Fernando Mendoza who is in the transfer portal. 

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The Aggregate isn't predicting any of the CFP games to be closer than six points and it's giving the all the favorites at least a 63% chance of winning their game. Texas is the biggest favorite with a 76.5% chance to win and Penn State is the weakest favorite at just a 63.3% chance to win. e. 

Saturday, December 14th
Army	11-1	36	59.0%	-6.5		-245
Navy	8-3	30	41.0%	+6.5	39	+200
Western Michigan	6-6	28	26.6%	+10.0		+300
South Alabama	6-6	40	73.4%	-10.0	59.5	-380
Tuesday, December 17th
Memphis	10-2	38	59.8%	+1.5		-102
West Virginia	6-6	31	40.2%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Wednesday, December 18th
Western Kentucky	8-5	31	36.3%	+3.0		+124
James Madison	8-4	39	63.7%	-3.0	53.5	-148
California	6-6	31	54.9%	-1.5		-120
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-3	29	45.1%	+1.5	51.5	even
Thursday, December 19th
Georgia Southern	8-4	31	74.0%	-4.5		-180
Sam Houston	9-3	21	26.0%	+4.5	46.5	+150
Friday, December 20th
Ohio	10-3	36	54.6%	-2.5		-130
Jacksonville State	9-4	35	45.4%	+2.5	52	+110
Tulane	9-4	31	37.9%	+9.5		+260
Florida	7-5	36	62.1%	-9.5	49.5	-325
Indiana	11-1	31	30.2%	+8.5		+245
Notre Dame	11-1	42	69.8%	-8.5	51.5	-305
Saturday, December 21st
Southern Methodist	11-2	24	36.7%	+8.0		+240
Penn State	11-2	34	63.3%	-8.0	52.5	-298
Clemson	10-3	20	23.5%	+10.5		+310
Texas	11-2	35	76.5%	-10.5	53.5	-395
Tennessee	10-2	31	34.9%	+7.0		+195
Ohio State	10-2	37	65.1%	-7.0	46.5	-238