Week 8 CFB Predictions

Finally we have completed the first full predictions for the Aggregate for the season. We know it's a little late, but we have made enormous strides on not only making the predictive metrics better and more accurate, but also automating as much as possible to enable a more streamlined process. 

Give the gift of Audible

Week Eight CFB Predictions
Teams	Record	Score Prediction	Chance to Win	Vegas Line	O/U	Moneyline
Tuesday, October 15th
Troy	1-5	42	46.9%			340
South Alabama	2-4	45	53.1%	-13.5	56.5	-440
Kennesaw State	0-5	31	51.4%			285
Middle Tennessee State	1-5	38	48.6%	-10	50	-360
Louisiana Tech	2-4	39	61.2%	-11.5	48	-440
New Mexico State	1-5	33	38.8%			340
Wednesday, October 16th
Western Kentucky	4-2	36	55.1%	-1	55	114
Sam Houston	5-1	40	44.9%			-135
Florida International	2-3	33	69.4%	-3.5	50	-225
Texas-El Paso	0-6	28	30.6%			185
Thursday, October 17th
Georgia State	2-3	34	45.2%			260
Marshall	3-3	38	54.8%	-7	53.5	-325
Boston College	4-2	30	42.9%			215
Virginia Tech	3-3	35	57.1%	-7	50	-265
Friday, October 18th
Florida State	1-5	24	28.6%			130
Duke	5-1	31	71.4%	-3	42.5	-155
Oregon	6-0	40	93.9%	-29.5	58.5	-4500
Purdue	1-5	6	6.1%			1700
Oklahoma State	3-3	24	30.6%			270
Brigham Young	6-0	36	69.4%	-7.5	55.5	-340
Fresno State	3-3	39	50.0%	-4	51.5	-155
Nevada	3-4	41	50.0%			130
Saturday, October 19th
Wake Forest	2-4	35	34.7%	-4.5	57.5	-105
Connecticut	4-2	45	65.3%			-115
East Carolina	3-3	14	6.1%			575
Army	6-0	40	93.9%	-13.5	52	-850
Miami (FL)	6-0	40	59.2%			-180
Louisville	4-2	33	40.8%	-1	59.5	150
Louisiana	5-1	39	44.9%	-3	55.5	-175
Coastal Carolina	4-2	42	55.1%			145
Virginia	4-2	24	10.2%			850
Clemson	5-1	43	89.8%	-21	57.5	-1450
Arizona State	5-1	35	46.9%			114
Cincinnati	4-2	33	53.1%	-3	53.5	-135
UCLA	1-5	30	28.6%			210
Rutgers	4-2	35	71.4%	-7.5	40.5	-258
Wisconsin	4-2	31	53.1%	-7	41	-238
Northwestern	3-3	27	46.9%			195
Auburn	2-4	31	42.9%			250
Missouri	5-1	33	57.1%	-10	51.5	-310
Nebraska	5-1	31	36.7%			154
Indiana	6-0	38	63.3%	-3.5	51.5	-185
South Carolina	3-3	30	40.8%			114
Oklahoma	4-2	34	59.2%	-7.5	40.5	-135
Tulsa	2-4	31	28.6%	PK		102
Temple	1-5	44	71.4%	PK	52.5	-122
Central Michigan	3-2	36	47.6%			110
Eastern Michigan	4-2	38	52.4%	-1.5	55	-130
Ohio	4-2	21	24.5%			150
Miami (OH)	2-4	34	75.5%	-4.5	43.5	-180
Western Michigan	3-3	24	30.6%	-1	49.5	-115
Buffalo	4-2	36	69.4%			-105
Texas State	4-2	36	77.6%	-7.5	61.5	-360
Old Dominion	2-4	26	22.4%			285
Charlotte	3-3	17	21.4%			600
Navy	5-0	44	78.6%	-16.5	56.5	-900
Alabama	5-1	37	44.9%	-2	56	-142
Tennessee	5-1	43	55.1%			120
Notre Dame	5-1	37	80.4%	-8.5	50.5	-298
Georgia Tech	5-2	24	19.6%			240
Kent State	0-6	8	0.0%			850
Bowling Green	2-4	43	100.0%	-24.5	57.5	-1450
Toledo	4-2	27	53.1%			102
Northern Illinois	4-2	29	46.9%	-1	45.5	-122
Alabama-Birmingham	1-5	27	18.4%			370
South Florida	2-4	47	81.6%	-16	57.5	-485
Michigan	4-2	27	51.0%	-2	42	-115
Illinois	5-1	26	49.0%			-105
North Carolina State	3-4	21	19.6%			320
California	3-3	38	80.4%	-9.5	46.5	-410
Houston	2-4	27	38.8%			195
Kansas	1-5	37	61.2%	-8.5	46.5	-238
Rice	2-4	10	8.2%			1000
Tulane	4-2	45	91.8%	-23.5	53.5	-1800
Florida Atlantic	2-4	34	49.0%			160
Texas-San Antonio	2-4	35	51.0%	-6	55.5	-192
Hawaii	2-4	14	10.2%			750
Washington State	5-1	36	89.8%	-19.5	55.5	-1200
James Madison	5-1	45	65.3%	-4.5	60	-395
Georgia Southern	4-2	37	34.7%			310
Baylor	2-4	36	49.0%			195
Texas Tech	5-1	34	51.0%	-7.5	57.5	-238
Southern California	3-3	37	73.5%	-6.5	56.5	-270
Maryland	3-3	23	26.5%			220
New Mexico	2-4	47	55.1%	-2.5	77	-135
Utah State	1-5	45	44.9%			114
Wyoming	1-5	14	6.1%			330
San Jose State	4-2	35	93.9%	-11	49.5	-425
Colorado	4-2	34	55.1%			142
Arizona	3-3	27	44.9%	-4	56	-170
Texas A&M	5-1	37	75.5%	-15	56	-600
Mississippi State	1-5	21	24.5%			440
Ball State	2-4	9	6.1%			2500
Vanderbilt	4-2	45	93.9%	-24.5	58.5	-9000
Louisiana State	5-1	37	44.9%	-9	57.5	-148
Arkansas	4-2	38	55.1%			124
Arkansas State	3-3	31	59.2%	-7	53.5	-278
Southern Mississippi	1-5	27	40.8%			225
Central Florida	3-3	19	22.4%			400
Iowa State	6-0	33	77.6%	-10	47.5	-535
Kansas State	5-1	38	46.9%	-2.5	54	-148
West Virginia	3-3	41	53.1%			124
North Texas	5-1	26	28.6%			340
Memphis	5-1	44	71.4%	-12.5	67	-440
Georgia	5-1	23	20.4%	-1.5		114
Texas	6-0	42	79.6%		55	-135
Iowa	4-2	34	77.6%	-6		-258
Michigan State	3-3	21	22.4%		41.5	210
Kentucky	3-3	30	51.0%	-1		105
Florida	3-3	31	49.0%		42	-125
Colorado State	3-3	33	61.2%	-8		-298
Air Force	1-5	30	38.8%		46.5	240
Southern Methodist	5-1	42	65.3%	-14		-625
Stanford	2-4	31	34.7%		55.5	455
Nevada-Las Vegas	5-1	42	67.3%	-4		-205
Oregon State	4-2	30	32.7%		61.5	170
Texas Christian	3-3	31	32.7%			210
Utah	4-2	42	67.3%	-7.5	51.5	-258

College Football Top 25 Week 8

The top 25 for college football according to the aggregate. Lots of movement this week the biggest being two teams that moved double digit spots to move into the top 25 including one that lost. Also some surprising non-movers. 

Best Deal on CFB 25 on Amazon

The two biggest movers were Wisconsin and South Carolina. Wisconsin gets into the top 25 for the fist time this season. The Badgers started 28th at the beginning of the season, but dipped to as low as 60th before rising the last four weeks. They are coming off of their best win of the year a 35 point drubbing of a good Rutgers team. 

South Carolina moved up double digits despite losing this week. The Aggregate rewarded the Gamecocks after they almost beat Alabama at Alabama. South Carolina was a 21.5 point underdog, but lost by only two.  

Give the gift of Audible this holiday season

The biggest story out of the Aggregate's top 25 is that both Oregon, ranked 9th, and Ohio State, ranked 2nd, did not move. This despite the Ducks beating the Buckeyes 32-31. To try and help make sense of this we'll breakdown how the Aggregate saw this game. First the Aggregate had going into the game Ohio State's rating as 53.8 and Oregon's as 43.1. Oregon played at home which Action network has as a homefield advantage of 2.5 points. This gave Oregon a rating of 45.6 playing at home. That meant to the Aggregate Ohio State was an 8.2 point favorite. Obviously Oregon bucked that trend winning by one at home, but a one point win at home is not worth as much as other wins. The way the Aggregate evaluates wins is it awards you the points of your opponents strength minus your homefield advantage plus how many points you beat them by so Oregon's value from the win was 53.8-2.5+1. Giving them a game value of 52.3. The Aggregates awards losers accordingly taking your opponents rating, subtracting how much you lost by and in this case adding the homefield advantage so Ohio State's game evaluation was 43.1-1+2.5. Giving them a value of 44.6. Ultimately these game values didn't change either teams average rating enough to change their rank. Ohio State lost .9 points on their rating and Oregon gained 1.0. 

Longhorns Beanie

	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Texas	6-0	0	57.5	1
2	Ohio State	5-1	0	53.2	4
3	Tennessee	5-1	0	50.1	11
4	Miami (FL)	6-0	+1	49.2	6
5	Notre Dame	5-1	+2	48.1	12
6	Mississippi	5-2	-2	48.4	18
7	Alabama	5-1	-1	46.5	7
8	Clemson	5-1	+2	44.4	10
9	Oregon	6-0	0	43.0	2
10	Georgia	5-1	-2	41.6	5
11	Penn State	6-0	0	41.6	3
12	Southern California	3-3	0	40.5	37
13	Texas A&M	5-1	0	38.8	14
14	Iowa	4-2	+3	39.1	31
15	Iowa State	6-0	+3	38.7	9
16	Louisiana State	5-1	0	37.8	8
17	Louisville	4-2	-2	38.1	36
18	Oklahoma	4-2	-4	35.6	29
19	Indiana	6-0	0	36.9	16
20	Wisconsin	4-2	+24	34.7	NR
21	Virginia Tech	3-3	0	34.4	NR
22	Arkansas	4-2	0	35.6	34
23	South Carolina	3-3	+12	35.0	NR
24	Brigham Young	6-0	+7	36.4	13
25	Kansas State	5-1	+2	33.8	17
133	Kent State	0-6	0	-12.9	NR

Week 6 College Football Predictions and Betting Guide

 Sorry guys. No predictions of betting guide this week. We are trying to get our score predictor factoring in standard deviation online. Both posts should be back next week. Thanks for your patience.