Saturday, August 3, 2024

Adjusted Winning Percentage for ACC Coaches

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.


In the ACC no one has a higher adjusted winning percentage than Dabo Swinney at Clemson. No surprise, Swinney has helmed one of the best college football programs of this century and it shows in his win percentage. Many consider the last few years at Clemson to be down years because of Swinney's unwillingness to embrace the transfer portal, but he still has 80.6% winning rate since the portal began. Time will tell if the Tigers are going to regress, but the Aggregate has them as the 11th best team in the country this year.


Possibly the most interesting aspect of the metric for the ACC was which coaches seem to have been helped by rosters that they did not create. Dave Doeren at NC State, Bill O'Brien at Boston College, Pat Narduzzi at Pitt, Justin Wilcox at Cal and Tony Elliot at Virginia all have a better traditional winning percentage than adjusted, but no one has a bigger difference than Jeff Brohm at Louisville at -1.5% worse. This shows these coaches have had more success early in their time at programs which at least implies that these coaches have come into favorable situations early in their coaching and their traditional win percentages are at least a little inflated. 

Here are the full results:   

ACC CoachesTeamWLAdjusted W PctTraditional W PctDifference
Fran BrownSyracuse0.00.0#DIV/0!0.0%#DIV/0!
Dabo SwinneyClemson154.332.182.8%79.8%3.0%
Rhett LashleeSMU14.56.070.7%66.7%4.0%
Mike NorvellFlorida State54.523.370.1%67.6%2.5%
Mack BrownUNC252.0109.569.7%65.7%4.0%
Dave DoerenNC State81.348.562.6%62.7%-0.1%
Manny DiazDuke18.511.561.7%58.3%3.4%
Bill O'BrienBoston College5.53.561.1%62.5%-1.4%
Jeff BrohmLouisville48.332.559.8%61.3%-1.5%
Pat NarduzziPittsburgh53.842.056.1%56.5%-0.4%
Dave ClawsonWake Forest82.069.054.3%50.5%3.8%
Mario CristobalMiami57.851.153.0%50.3%2.7%
Brent KeyGT9.08.052.9%52.4%0.5%
Brent PryVa Tech8.510.045.9%41.7%4.2%
Justin WilcoxCalifornia28.834.845.3%45.6%-0.3%
Tony ElliottVirginia4.512.526.5%27.3%-0.8%
Troy TaylorStanford1.54.525.0%25.0%0.0%
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Sunbelt Coaches Aggregate Adjusted Win Percentage

                                                                   

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

For the Sunbelt this year Shawn Clark from App State has the highest adjusted winning percentage with 64.3%. Clark is one of the longest tenured coaches in the Sunbelt going into his 5th year there. 

Note: Neither Bob Chesney or Dell McGee have an FBS win or loss which is why they're fields are incomplete. 

Sun Belt CoachesTeamWLW Pct
Bob ChesneyJMU0.00.0#DIV/0!
Dell McGeeGA State0.00.0#DIV/0!
Shawn ClarkApp State29.816.564.3%
Tim BeckCoastal Carolina4.02.561.5%
G.J. KinneTexas State4.02.561.5%
Major ApplewhiteS. Alabama5.83.959.7%
Charles HuffMarshall18.514.056.9%
Clay HeltonGSU37.129.355.9%
Butch JonesArk St61.550.055.2%
Bryant VincentULM1.81.553.8%
Michael DesormeauxLouisiana9.310.546.8%
Ricky RahneOld Dominion12.019.538.1%
Will HallSouthern Miss11.519.537.1%
Gerad ParkerTroy0.00.80.0%

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Friday, August 2, 2024

American Athletic Conference Coaches Adjusted Winning Percentages





I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

We get to the fifth in our series the American Athletic Conference. The American was the 7th highest rated conference last season, but lost it's highest rated team in SMU. We'll see how the conference does without them. It certainly looks healthy though. Jon Sumrall leads the adjusted win percentage after two great years at Troy. Sumrall, the new coach at Tulane, has an adjusted win percentage of 85%. Also at the top are perennial contender Jeff Traylor (76%) at UTSA and former Houston and Texas head coach Tom Herman (65%) who is in his second year at Florida Atlantic. Full results are below.

AAC CoachesTeamWLW Pct
Jon SumrallTulane17385.0%
Jeff TraylorUTSA35.511.575.5%
Tom HermanFAU31.517.2564.6%
Ryan SilverfieldMemphis2716.562.1%
Jeff MonkenArmy6442.7560.0%
Alex GoleshUSF3.5353.8%
Mike HoustonEast Carolina223042.3%
Eric MorrisUNT2.53.541.7%
Brian NewberryNavy2.53.541.7%
Kevin WilsonTulsa243739.3%
Mike BloomgrenRice1935.534.9%
Trent DilferUAB2433.3%
Biff PoggiCharlotte1.54.525.0%
Stan DraytonTemple4.513.525.0%

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Thursday, August 1, 2024

Mountain West Coaches Adjusted Winning Percentage



   



I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past. 

With all that said here is the fourth in the series, the Mountain West conference. You will notice that this includes only teams eligible for the Mountain West Championship game. Despite playing six games against Mountain West teams this year neither Oregon State nor Washington State are eligible in the Mountain West standings at the time of this posting. 

Biggest thing that stands out about the Mountain West is their lack of under .500 coaches. They have only two. Compared to the conferences I've evaluated so far that is extremely low. The next closest conference to that was Conference USA with six. 

What does that mean for the Mountain West? Mostly I think it means they have a lot of retread coaches. There are three coaches in the Mountain West with 100 plus adjusted wins. None of the conferences I have evaluated so far have had any. Seven Mountain West coaches had previous coaching stops as head coaches and then there is Troy Calhoun who has been at Air Force since 2007. 

So who is the Coach with the best adjusted win percentage in the Mountain West? Well it's Spencer Danielson although the adjusted winning percentage only gives him credit for .75 wins and .25 losses. In other words they went 3-1 when he took over last year, but since he took over at the end of the season the adjusted winning percentage only gives him credit for 25% of the wins and losses. We'll get a better idea of how good he is after this season. 

Behind him is Bronco Mendenhall with a career adjusted winning percentage of 64.7%. You've got to feel good if you're a Lobos fan right now. You just hired a coach with a very good winning pedigree. 

Note: Jay Sawvel and Jeff Choate have no wins or losses as an FBS coach which is why they're an incomplete here. 

MW CoachesTeamWLW Pct
Jay SawvelWyoming0.00.0#DIV/0!
Jeff ChoateNevada0.00.0#DIV/0!
Spencer DanielsonBoise State0.80.375.0%
Bronco MendenhallNew Mexico115.362.864.7%
Troy CalhounAir Force117.375.360.9%
Jeff TedfordFresno State101.867.860.0%
Ken NiumataloloSan Jose State95.875.456.0%
Blake AndersonUtah State56.844.855.9%
Barry OdomUNLV21.017.354.9%
Jay NorvellColorado State33.328.354.1%
Sean LewisSan Diego State20.822.048.5%
Timmy ChangHawai'i6.513.033.3%

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Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Adjusted Win Percentage for Conference USA Coaches

                                  


I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past. 

With all that being said this is the third piece in this series. This time we look at Conference USA. There is a clear and away winner in this category and it's not particularly close. It's Jamey Chadwell at Liberty. Chadwell created a fringe powerhouse at Coastal Carolina and his first year at Liberty was a success as well. The adjusted winning percentage metric has Chadwell at a 75% clip which ultimately ranks him as one of the best coaches in the country. He's a full 12.5 percentage points ahead of 2nd place coach Rich Rodriguez. Note: Brian Bohannon has not coached as an FBS head coach at this point which is why his stats are nil for this metric.

CUSA CoachesTeamWLW Pct
Brian BohannonKennesaw St.0.00.0#DIV/0!
Jamey ChadwellLiberty42.014.075.0%
Rich RodriguezJacksonville St.94.856.862.5%
Tyson HeltonW. Kentucky35.524.059.7%
Mike MacintyreFIU41.350.844.8%
Tony SanchezNMSU14.527.534.5%
Derek MasonMTSU21.342.533.3%
Sonny CumbieLa Tech5.014.326.0%
K.C. KeelerSam Houston1.54.525.0%
Scotty WaldenUtep0.30.825.0%

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Adjusted Win Percentage for MAC Coaches



I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually are as it does not factor in a multitude of issues including environment, player talent, competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results. 

With all that being said this is the second in this series. This week we look at the MAC conference. Miami (OH) finished on top of the MAC last year, but it is Ohio coach Tim Albin who has the best adjusted win percentage. Albin has an adjusted win percentage of 65.2%. The Bobcats went 10-3 last year and have fared well under him in three years. Albin's worst year there was his first which of course the adjusted win percentage devalues. 


MAC CoachesTeamWLW Pct
Tim AlbinOhio21.511.565.2%
Jason CandleToledo50.129.063.3%
Jim McElwainC. Michigan46.837.555.5%
Chuck MartinMiami (OH)51.544.853.5%
Pete LemboBuffalo21.521.849.7%
Chris CreightonE. Michigan48.353.547.4%
Mike NeuBall State32.043.042.7%
Thomas HammockNIU21.529.542.2%
Scot LoefflerBowling Green18.530.537.8%
Lance TaylorW. Michigan2.04.033.3%
Joe MoorheadAkron12.028.329.8%
Kenni BurnsKent State0.55.58.3%

SEC End of Season Rankings

  The end of year rankings for the 2024 SEC season. The SEC had more parody than ever in the conference and without a dominant team at the t...