Bowl Week 1 Predictions

 

Predictions for Bowl week 1. The Aggregate likes most of  the favorites in week one of the college bowl season. It does predict one victory for a non power 4 team over a power 4 team, but see's another non-power 4 team, who spent a good deal of the year ranked in the top 25, as a loser to a 6-6 power 4 squad. It also doesn't see any of the CFP games as being particularly close. 

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The Aggregate is picking the Memphis Tigers to beat West Virginia on Tuesday in the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl. The Mountaineers were originally the favorites in this game as shown below, but that is no longer the case. DraftKings now has Memphis -190. West Virginia was the better team this season, but they are hemorrhaging after losing their head coach. In addition to their head coach the team will not have 11 of their players or their former defensive coordinator. The Aggregate has them at about 60% of their regular season strength. 

The Aggregate is picking #24 UNLV to lose to the Cal Golden Bears. The Aggregate is predicting that the loss of head coach Barry Odom will be too much for the Runnin Rebels. This all despite Cal's loss of their starting quarterback, Fernando Mendoza who is in the transfer portal. 

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The Aggregate isn't predicting any of the CFP games to be closer than six points and it's giving the all the favorites at least a 63% chance of winning their game. Texas is the biggest favorite with a 76.5% chance to win and Penn State is the weakest favorite at just a 63.3% chance to win. e. 

Saturday, December 14th
Army	11-1	36	59.0%	-6.5		-245
Navy	8-3	30	41.0%	+6.5	39	+200
Western Michigan	6-6	28	26.6%	+10.0		+300
South Alabama	6-6	40	73.4%	-10.0	59.5	-380
Tuesday, December 17th
Memphis	10-2	38	59.8%	+1.5		-102
West Virginia	6-6	31	40.2%	-1.5	56.5	-118
Wednesday, December 18th
Western Kentucky	8-5	31	36.3%	+3.0		+124
James Madison	8-4	39	63.7%	-3.0	53.5	-148
California	6-6	31	54.9%	-1.5		-120
Nevada-Las Vegas	10-3	29	45.1%	+1.5	51.5	even
Thursday, December 19th
Georgia Southern	8-4	31	74.0%	-4.5		-180
Sam Houston	9-3	21	26.0%	+4.5	46.5	+150
Friday, December 20th
Ohio	10-3	36	54.6%	-2.5		-130
Jacksonville State	9-4	35	45.4%	+2.5	52	+110
Tulane	9-4	31	37.9%	+9.5		+260
Florida	7-5	36	62.1%	-9.5	49.5	-325
Indiana	11-1	31	30.2%	+8.5		+245
Notre Dame	11-1	42	69.8%	-8.5	51.5	-305
Saturday, December 21st
Southern Methodist	11-2	24	36.7%	+8.0		+240
Penn State	11-2	34	63.3%	-8.0	52.5	-298
Clemson	10-3	20	23.5%	+10.5		+310
Texas	11-2	35	76.5%	-10.5	53.5	-395
Tennessee	10-2	31	34.9%	+7.0		+195
Ohio State	10-2	37	65.1%	-7.0	46.5	-238

End of Season Top 25: Who Should Be in the CFP

  

Final Top 25 Rankings for the Aggregate. The Aggregate still disagrees with the CFP committee for who should make the college football playoff. We make the statistical case below for who should have been in and how the bracket should actually be seeded. 

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Who the Aggregate Has Out

Penn State, SMU, Boise State, gone. The Aggregate doesn't evaluate any of these teams as the top 8 after the automatic qualifiers get in. In fairness it does think Penn State is one of the top 12 teams, but in the current CFP format where conference winners get automatic births they just come up short of  making the cut. SMU is almost in the top 12 at 13th. Boise is no where close, but is just one spot below the non power 4 team the Aggregate actually likes.

Who the Aggregate Has In

The teams the Aggregate would put in over the three above? Ole Miss, Alabama and Tulane. The Rebels and Crimson Tide have been ranked in the top 5 all year. Despite their losses the data tells us that they belong with these teams. Tulane on the other hand has been ranked above Boise for awhile in the Aggregate. If they had won their championship game we think they would have had a real case, but after losing the Aggregate still has them ranked above the Broncos though only by one spot. 

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The Comparison

Lets breakdown these teams and get to the bottom of why the data tells us that they're actually better teams than the one's that got in. 

Team	Ole Miss	Penn State	Alabama	SMU	Tulane	Boise State
Agg Rank	4th	10th	5th	13th	36th	37th
Agg Rating	47.4	44.3	46.9	38.6	31.5	31.2
SDev Range	32.8-61.9	34-54.6	28.2-65.7	20.0-57.3	14.2-48.8	18.3-44.2
SOS	56th	23rd	18th	63rd	86th	87th
Point Differential	+23.8	+17.0	+18.3	+17.6	+17.5	+17.2
Top 25 record	3-2	2-2	2-1	1-1	0-2	0-1

 Each of the teams the Aggregate wants to put in the playoff is highlighted in green and the teams it doesn't are highlighted in red. The teams ratings are similar although the non power 4 schools are quite a bit lower than the power 4 we'll get into that in seeding. The biggest difference in the teams ratings comes with SMU. The Mustangs are a 38.6. That means against the average FBS team the Aggregate expects SMU to score 38 points. That's not bad, but it's quite different than Alabama's 46.9. 

Looking at each teams standard deviation a pattern appears with what the committee seemed to value in choosing the playoff teams. First, the Aggregate finds a teams standard deviation which in layman's terms is basically the scale a team has performed on this season. In this case it's one standard deviation so 68% of a teams performances through the year are represented by this scale. The thing that stands out when comparing the standard deviation ranges is that two of the teams that the playoff committee choose have a higher floor than two of the teams the Aggregate favored. In this case those teams were Penn State and Boise State. Both had higher floors than Ole Miss and Tulane. The one place where this didn't occur was SMU and Alabama. Just another reason why Alabama is actually the better team than SMU. The Aggregate however is not only concerned with a teams floor, but it's entire scale and all of the teams that it likes have better scales than the teams that got in over them. 

SOS, point differential and top 25 record are categories were going to look at together. Penn State and Alabama both lead the category ranked 23rd and 18th respectively. Again this adds to the case for Alabama, but maybe not Ole Miss. The Rebels are ranked 56th in strength of schedule. The difference to the Aggregate and why it still rates Ole Miss higher than those other two programs is it's point differential. The Rebels point differential is almost 7 points higher than that of Penn State. It also helps that they have a 3-2 record against top 25 schools so when they played good competition they showed they belonged. 

Seeding

Let's look at what the Seeding should look like with the current teams: 

12. Boise State

5. Tennessee

4. Oregon

Bye

9. SMU

8. Penn State

1. Notre Dame

Bye

11. Clemson

6. Georgia

3. Ohio State

Bye

10. Arizona State

7. Indiana

2. Texas

Bye

This is the way the Aggregate believes the tournament should actually be seeded. This would set up a couple of potential rematches. If Boise could beat Tennessee than they would get another crack at Oregon. Georgia and Clemson would also play each other again a rematch of the first week game that saw Georgia beat the Tigers 34-3. Then you would have a battle of newcomers in Arizona State and Indiana. 

Now let's look at the bracket that the Aggregate would have made: 

12. Tulane

5. Alabama

4. Ole Miss

Bye

9. Indiana

8. Georgia

1. Notre Dame

Bye

11. Clemson

6. Oregon

3. Ohio State

Bye

10. Arizona State

7. Tennessee

2. Texas

Bye

Indiana can once again face Notre Dame, but this time they have to win at Georgia to get that chance. Clemson would get to travel all the way to Eugene to play their first game. If the Ducks won that game it would set up a rematch of Oregon and Ohio State. With these teams records it would be hard to justify a bracket like this, but in order of competitive games the Aggregate likes this the best.  

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	CFP Ranking
1	Notre Dame	11-1	0	52.6	5
2	Texas	11-2	0	50.1	3
3	Ohio State	10-2	0	49.6	6
4	Mississippi	9-3	0	47.4	14
5	Alabama	9-3	0	46.9	11
6	Oregon	13-0	+1	46.2	1
7	Tennessee	10-2	-1	46.0	7
8	Georgia	11-2	+3	44.5	2
9	Indiana	11-1	0	44.4	8
10	Penn State	11-2	-2	44.3	4
11	Miami (FL)	10-2	-1	44.3	13
12	Louisville	8-4	0	40.1	NR
13	Southern Methodist	11-2	0	38.6	10
14	South Carolina	9-3	0	38.6	15
15	Iowa	8-4	0	38.4	NR
16	Arizona State	11-2	+5	38.2	12
17	Clemson	10-3	-1	38.1	16
18	Colorado	9-3	-1	37.2	23
19	Southern California	6-6	-1	36.9	NR
20	Louisiana State	8-4	-1	36.7	NR
21	Texas A&M	8-4	-1	36.5	NR
22	Florida	7-5	0	36.5	NR
23	Baylor	8-4	0	36.1	NR
24	Michigan	7-5	0	35.7	NR
25	Virginia Tech	6-6	0	35.5	NR
37	Boise State	12-1	+2	31.2	9