Adjusted Winning Percentage for Big 10 Coaches

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

Moore at 

The coach with the best adjusted winning percentage for the Big 10 is technically Sherrone Moore. Who as an interim coach won one game. You can see in the chart below that the Adjusted metric only credits Moore with 12.5% of that win, but with no losses that gives him a 100% winning percentage. Beyond him Ryan Day has the highest winning percentage despite having a worse adjusted win percentage than traditional. 

The other coach with a worse adjusted win percentage than traditional was Lincoln Riley. Both Riley and Day have very good winning percentages, but started their coaching careers in very successful programs. As such the adjusted winning percentage see's both as not quite as good as their traditional win percentage would suggest. 

The other most notable thing for Big 10 coaches in the adjustable win percentage is the amount of coaches that have a much better  adjusted than traditional win rate. The Big 10 has six coaches with over a 5% better rate. Other large conferences have zero coaches with that large of difference. What does that mean? Mostly that those coaches are a bit undervalued in traditional winning percentage. 

The largest of those differences belongs to Nebraska's Matt Rhule with an adjusted rate of 61.7%. That's 10.7% higher than his traditional. Rhule is of course in his second year with Nebraska and seems to be on the rise. The Cornhuskers played a ton of close games last year and 5-7 was an improvement on seasons before.  

Here are the total results:

Big 10 Coaches	Team	W	L	Adjusted W Pct	Traditional W Pct	Difference
DeShaun Foster	UCLA	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!	0.0%	#DIV/0!
Sherrone Moore	Michigan	0.1	0.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%
Ryan Day	Ohio State	46.9	7.5	86.2%	87.5%	-1.3%
Curt Cignetti	Indiana	15.0	2.5	85.7%	82.6%	3.1%
Dan Lanning	Oregon	17.0	3.5	82.9%	81.5%	1.4%
LIncoln Riley	USC	53.5	14.0	79.3%	80.4%	-1.1%
Luke Fickell	Wisconsin	53.8	15.8	77.3%	69.6%	7.7%
James Franklin	Penn State	88.8	37.5	70.3%	67.5%	2.8%
PJ Fleck	Minnesota	66.0	35.8	64.9%	58.8%	6.1%
Kirk Ferentz	Iowa	192.0	105.8	64.5%	62.2%	2.3%
Matt Rhule	Nebraska	38.3	23.8	61.7%	51.0%	10.7%
David Braun	Northwestern	2.0	1.3	61.5%	61.5%	0.0%
Bret Bielema	Illinois	89.5	58.3	60.6%	59.9%	0.7%
Jonathan Smith	Michigan State	31	25.75	54.6%	49.3%	5.3%
Greg Schiano	Rutgers	78.3	78.0	50.1%	47.8%	2.3%
Jedd Fisch	Washington	15.6	15.6	50.0%	43.6%	6.4%
Mike Locksley	Maryland	27.4	35.4	43.6%	34.4%	9.2%
Ryan Walters	Purdue	2.0	4.0	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%

Want to score a discount on Amazon Prime? Check out this special here:

Looking for Great Big 10 Gear? Amazon's got you covered:

Adjusted Winning Percentage for ACC Coaches

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

In the ACC no one has a higher adjusted winning percentage than Dabo Swinney at Clemson. No surprise, Swinney has helmed one of the best college football programs of this century and it shows in his win percentage. Many consider the last few years at Clemson to be down years because of Swinney's unwillingness to embrace the transfer portal, but he still has 80.6% winning rate since the portal began. Time will tell if the Tigers are going to regress, but the Aggregate has them as the 11th best team in the country this year.

Possibly the most interesting aspect of the metric for the ACC was which coaches seem to have been helped by rosters that they did not create. Dave Doeren at NC State, Bill O'Brien at Boston College, Pat Narduzzi at Pitt, Justin Wilcox at Cal and Tony Elliot at Virginia all have a better traditional winning percentage than adjusted, but no one has a bigger difference than Jeff Brohm at Louisville at -1.5% worse. This shows these coaches have had more success early in their time at programs which at least implies that these coaches have come into favorable situations early in their coaching and their traditional win percentages are at least a little inflated. 

Here are the full results:   

ACC Coaches	Team	W	L	Adjusted W Pct	Traditional W Pct	Difference
Fran Brown	Syracuse	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!	0.0%	#DIV/0!
Dabo Swinney	Clemson	154.3	32.1	82.8%	79.8%	3.0%
Rhett Lashlee	SMU	14.5	6.0	70.7%	66.7%	4.0%
Mike Norvell	Florida State	54.5	23.3	70.1%	67.6%	2.5%
Mack Brown	UNC	252.0	109.5	69.7%	65.7%	4.0%
Dave Doeren	NC State	81.3	48.5	62.6%	62.7%	-0.1%
Manny Diaz	Duke	18.5	11.5	61.7%	58.3%	3.4%
Bill O'Brien	Boston College	5.5	3.5	61.1%	62.5%	-1.4%
Jeff Brohm	Louisville	48.3	32.5	59.8%	61.3%	-1.5%
Pat Narduzzi	Pittsburgh	53.8	42.0	56.1%	56.5%	-0.4%
Dave Clawson	Wake Forest	82.0	69.0	54.3%	50.5%	3.8%
Mario Cristobal	Miami	57.8	51.1	53.0%	50.3%	2.7%
Brent Key	GT	9.0	8.0	52.9%	52.4%	0.5%
Brent Pry	Va Tech	8.5	10.0	45.9%	41.7%	4.2%
Justin Wilcox	California	28.8	34.8	45.3%	45.6%	-0.3%
Tony Elliott	Virginia	4.5	12.5	26.5%	27.3%	-0.8%
Troy Taylor	Stanford	1.5	4.5	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%

Interested in Amazon Prime? Get a discount here:

Looking for ACC shirts before the season? Amazon's got what you need:

Sunbelt Coaches Aggregate Adjusted Win Percentage

                                                                   

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

For the Sunbelt this year Shawn Clark from App State has the highest adjusted winning percentage with 64.3%. Clark is one of the longest tenured coaches in the Sunbelt going into his 5th year there. 

Note: Neither Bob Chesney or Dell McGee have an FBS win or loss which is why they're fields are incomplete. 

Sun Belt Coaches	Team	W	L	W Pct
Bob Chesney	JMU	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Dell McGee	GA State	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Shawn Clark	App State	29.8	16.5	64.3%
Tim Beck	Coastal Carolina	4.0	2.5	61.5%
G.J. Kinne	Texas State	4.0	2.5	61.5%
Major Applewhite	S. Alabama	5.8	3.9	59.7%
Charles Huff	Marshall	18.5	14.0	56.9%
Clay Helton	GSU	37.1	29.3	55.9%
Butch Jones	Ark St	61.5	50.0	55.2%
Bryant Vincent	ULM	1.8	1.5	53.8%
Michael Desormeaux	Louisiana	9.3	10.5	46.8%
Ricky Rahne	Old Dominion	12.0	19.5	38.1%
Will Hall	Southern Miss	11.5	19.5	37.1%
Gerad Parker	Troy	0.0	0.8	0.0%

Check out Sun Belt T-Shirts here:

Get Amazon Prime at a discount:

American Athletic Conference Coaches Adjusted Winning Percentages

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past.

We get to the fifth in our series the American Athletic Conference. The American was the 7th highest rated conference last season, but lost it's highest rated team in SMU. We'll see how the conference does without them. It certainly looks healthy though. Jon Sumrall leads the adjusted win percentage after two great years at Troy. Sumrall, the new coach at Tulane, has an adjusted win percentage of 85%. Also at the top are perennial contender Jeff Traylor (76%) at UTSA and former Houston and Texas head coach Tom Herman (65%) who is in his second year at Florida Atlantic. Full results are below.

AAC Coaches	Team	W	L	W Pct
Jon Sumrall	Tulane	17	3	85.0%
Jeff Traylor	UTSA	35.5	11.5	75.5%
Tom Herman	FAU	31.5	17.25	64.6%
Ryan Silverfield	Memphis	27	16.5	62.1%
Jeff Monken	Army	64	42.75	60.0%
Alex Golesh	USF	3.5	3	53.8%
Mike Houston	East Carolina	22	30	42.3%
Eric Morris	UNT	2.5	3.5	41.7%
Brian Newberry	Navy	2.5	3.5	41.7%
Kevin Wilson	Tulsa	24	37	39.3%
Mike Bloomgren	Rice	19	35.5	34.9%
Trent Dilfer	UAB	2	4	33.3%
Biff Poggi	Charlotte	1.5	4.5	25.0%
Stan Drayton	Temple	4.5	13.5	25.0%

Interested in AAC gear check this out:

Interested in 6 months free of Amazon Prime for Students:

Mountain West Coaches Adjusted Winning Percentage

   

I've often felt that winning percentage is not a great look at how good coaches actually perform as it does not factor in a multitude of items including environment, player talent and competition. As a result I devised a formula to try and tackle some of that problem and give a more accurate portrayal of what part of the wins and losses the head coach was responsible for. 

This metric, the adjusted win percentage for FBS coaches, tries to take into account at least the players that each coach is responsible for. For example when a new head coach wins in their very first year the credit only lies somewhat with them. Many of the players they are winning with were recruited by the previous staff. Often these coaches go on to not be successful in the long term. The best examples I can think of are Ed Orgeron at LSU or Gene Chizik at Auburn. Both should be noted actually had their best year a few years in, but neither lasted after a prolonged time. On the flip side new coaches often lose heavily in their first year because it takes time to recruit and install new systems and to get a full buy-in from players. Think Sabin's first year at Alabama or Bobby Petrino's first at Arkansas.

The basic thrust of the formula is this, the longer a coach has coached a team the more accountable he is for their wins and losses. The transfer portal has changed some of this in that the formula now holds coaches more accountable sooner. Gone are the days when you had four years to show some results.

Special notes, these statistics are based on fbs wins and losses only. The time period for the coaches is endless so all the coaches years are included, but it is only an evaluation of current coaches not coaches from the past. 

With all that said here is the fourth in the series, the Mountain West conference. You will notice that this includes only teams eligible for the Mountain West Championship game. Despite playing six games against Mountain West teams this year neither Oregon State nor Washington State are eligible in the Mountain West standings at the time of this posting. 

Biggest thing that stands out about the Mountain West is their lack of under .500 coaches. They have only two. Compared to the conferences I've evaluated so far that is extremely low. The next closest conference to that was Conference USA with six. 

What does that mean for the Mountain West? Mostly I think it means they have a lot of retread coaches. There are three coaches in the Mountain West with 100 plus adjusted wins. None of the conferences I have evaluated so far have had any. Seven Mountain West coaches had previous coaching stops as head coaches and then there is Troy Calhoun who has been at Air Force since 2007. 

So who is the Coach with the best adjusted win percentage in the Mountain West? Well it's Spencer Danielson although the adjusted winning percentage only gives him credit for .75 wins and .25 losses. In other words they went 3-1 when he took over last year, but since he took over at the end of the season the adjusted winning percentage only gives him credit for 25% of the wins and losses. We'll get a better idea of how good he is after this season. 

Behind him is Bronco Mendenhall with a career adjusted winning percentage of 64.7%. You've got to feel good if you're a Lobos fan right now. You just hired a coach with a very good winning pedigree. 

Note: Jay Sawvel and Jeff Choate have no wins or losses as an FBS coach which is why they're an incomplete here. 

MW Coaches	Team	W	L	W Pct
Jay Sawvel	Wyoming	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Jeff Choate	Nevada	0.0	0.0	#DIV/0!
Spencer Danielson	Boise State	0.8	0.3	75.0%
Bronco Mendenhall	New Mexico	115.3	62.8	64.7%
Troy Calhoun	Air Force	117.3	75.3	60.9%
Jeff Tedford	Fresno State	101.8	67.8	60.0%
Ken Niumatalolo	San Jose State	95.8	75.4	56.0%
Blake Anderson	Utah State	56.8	44.8	55.9%
Barry Odom	UNLV	21.0	17.3	54.9%
Jay Norvell	Colorado State	33.3	28.3	54.1%
Sean Lewis	San Diego State	20.8	22.0	48.5%
Timmy Chang	Hawai'i	6.5	13.0	33.3%

Mountain West T-Shirts on Amazon