SEC End of Season Rankings

 

The end of year rankings for the 2024 SEC season. The SEC had more parody than ever in the conference and without a dominant team at the top many believe they are no longer the strongest conference, but the numbers tell us that top to bottom the SEC is still the best league. 

Best Team: 

The Texas Longhorns are our #1 rated team in the SEC. The Longhorns finished the season 13-3 and 7-1 in the SEC. They were defeated in the semifinals of the college football playoff to eventual national champion Ohio State. Texas averaged 32 points a game and allowed 15. The difference for them was a lack of offense in losses. In their losses the Longhorns only averaged 16 points. Texas's strength of schedule this season was 7th. 

Biggest Surprise: 

The Vanderbilt Commodores was one of the Aggregates biggest surprise teams in the entire country. Vanderbilt started the season ranked 107th in our preseason rankings and finished 41st. That still only landed them 14th in the SEC, but the Commodores were a much improved team. Vanderbilt was +3.6 in point differential against the 31st hardest schedule in the country going 7-6 and 3-5 in the SEC. 

Biggest Disappointment:  

There is no doubt the Sooners were the biggest disappointment in the SEC this year. Oklahoma was projected to finish 4th by the data and many had them in the conversation for an SEC title, but OU could never get their offense off the ground. The Sooners averaged only 24 points a game and if you take out their two blowouts against Maine and Temple it was only 18 a game.  They finished 12th in the SEC in our rankings and 35th nationally. 

SEC Rankings
Rank	Team	Record	Conf Record	Rating	National Rank	Pre Seas Rnk
1	Texas	13-3	7-1	48.6	3	5
2	Mississippi	10-3	5-3	48.3	4	6
3	Alabama	9-4	5-3	45.7	6	16
4	Tennessee	10-3	6-2	44.7	8	19
5	Georgia	11-3	6-2	44.1	10	2
6	Florida	8-5	4-4	37.9	15	20
7	South Carolina	9-4	5-3	37.9	16	38
8	Louisiana State	9-4	5-3	37.6	18	18
9	Texas A&M	8-5	5-3	36.3	23	10
10	Arkansas	7-6	3-5	32.6	32	51
11	Auburn	5-7	2-6	32.0	33	29
12	Oklahoma	6-7	2-6	31.6	35	9
13	Missouri	10-3	5-3	31.2	36	21
14	Vanderbilt	7-6	3-5	30.3	41	107
15	Kentucky	4-8	1-7	23.9	62	37
16	Mississippi State	2-10	0-8	20.9	68	77

End of Year Top 25 Rankings

End of year top 25 rankings. After the bowl season teams moved around a lot. Ohio State climbs to the top. Arizona State was our biggest climber. Colorado had our biggest drop. We have five teams in the exact same spot as the AP and we have three teams ranked that the AP couldn't find space for. Florida is our biggest disagreement with the AP ranking 18 spots higher in our ranking than theirs. 

It doesn't always happen with the Aggregate rankings and the eventual national championship, but this year the algorithm agrees with what happened on the field. Ohio State was rated the nations best team according to the data with Notre Dame second. The Buckeyes were highly rated all season by the numbers, but really came into their own at the end. Ohio State started ranked 4th in our system and never went above 9th on the season. 

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Arizona State was our biggest climber this week rising eight spots. The Sun Devils showed a lot in the college football playoffs and were one of the years best stories. We had them ranked as the 85th best team in the country to start the year and their change of 72 places was the best for any team this season. 

The Colorado Buffaloes had the most precipitous drop this week. The Buffaloes retained almost all their star players for their matchup with BYU and the Aggregate had them as a 4 point favorite, but BYU took it to them winning the Alamo bowl 36-14. 

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We have three teams ranked in our final 25 that the AP couldn't find space for even in their receiving votes. The numbers tell us that Iowa, USC and Minnesota all our top 25 teams in the country even though their records are not as sexy. The Hawkeyes reason for being so high was some good wins against edge top 25 schools. They beat teams ranked 32, 28 and 25 by a combined 73 points. USC was helped by two things. The Trojans bookended their season with a victory over top 25 schools and then all of their losses sans Notre Dame were by single digits. Minnesota started the season 2-3, but finished the year 6-2 with wins over two top 25 schools. 

The numbers tell us that the Florida Gators are a much better team than 33rd in the country. The Gators went up as high as 53rd during the season, but their improved performance over the latter part of the season has us putting them all the way at 15th. Florida beat LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State and then Tulane to finish the season. State not withstanding those other wins were very impressive and moved Florida up high on our list.

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	Top 25 and 1 Aggregate Power Ranking
Rank	Team	Record	Change	Rating	AP Ranking
1	Ohio State	14-2	+2	53.3	1
2	Notre Dame	14-2	-1	51.8	2
3	Texas	13-3	-1	48.6	4
4	Mississippi	10-3	0	48.3	11
5	Penn State	13-3	+3	45.9	5
6	Alabama	9-4	-1	45.7	17
7	Oregon	13-1	0	45.1	3
8	Tennessee	10-3	-2	44.7	9
9	Indiana	11-2	0	44.5	10
10	Georgia	11-3	+1	44.1	6
11	Miami (FL)	10-3	-1	43.4	18
12	Louisville	9-4	0	39.4	28
13	Arizona State	11-3	+8	39.0	7
14	Clemson	10-4	+2	38.1	14
15	Florida	8-5	+7	37.9	33
16	South Carolina	9-4	-2	37.9	19
17	Iowa	8-5	-2	37.6	NR
18	Louisiana State	9-4	+1	37.6	27
19	Southern Methodist	11-3	-6	37.4	12
20	Southern California	7-6	-2	37.2	NR
21	Michigan	8-5	+3	36.9	29
22	Minnesota	8-5	+4	36.4	NR
23	Texas A&M	8-5	-3	36.3	35
24	Brigham Young	11-2	+4	35.9	13
25	Colorado	9-4	-8	35.5	25
134	Kent State	0-12	-	-16.0	NR

Final Conference Rankings

 The end of year rankings for the conferences in college football. It may surprise many, but the data tells us that the SEC is still the best conference in college football. The data also is telling us that the Big 12 was better than the ACC this year. The Mountain West capitalized on a rebuilding year from the Sunbelt to rank as the best group of five conference this season.

According to the data we use to analyze games and predict future outcomes the SEC is the best conference in college football this year. That may surprise many as the Big 10 had a very good bowl season and with Ohio State winning the national championship. Here is a team by team breakdown of the two conferences. 

Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank	Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank
Texas	13-3	48.6	3	Ohio State	14-2	53.3	1
Mississippi	10-3	48.3	4	Penn State	13-3	45.9	5
Alabama	9-4	45.7	6	Oregon	13-1	45.1	7
Tennessee	10-3	44.7	8	Indiana	11-2	44.5	9
Georgia	11-3	44.1	10	Iowa	8-5	37.6	17
Florida	8-5	37.9	15	Southern California	7-6	37.2	20
South Carolina	9-4	37.9	16	Michigan	8-5	36.9	21
Louisiana State	9-4	37.6	18	Minnesota	8-5	36.4	22
Texas A&M	8-5	36.3	23	Illinois	10-3	33.1	30
Arkansas	7-6	32.6	32	Nebraska	7-6	31.1	37
Auburn	5-7	32.0	33	Washington	6-7	30.3	40
Oklahoma	6-7	31.6	35	Wisconsin	5-7	29.8	45
Missouri	10-3	31.2	36	Rutgers	7-6	27.9	48
Vanderbilt	7-6	30.3	41	UCLA	5-7	24.5	59
Kentucky	4-8	23.9	62	Maryland	4-8	22.1	64
Mississippi State	2-10	20.9	68	Northwestern	4-8	20.5	70
				Michigan State	5-7	20.4	71
				Purdue	1-11	7.1	115
Average		36.5	26			32.4	38

As you can see the data tells us that Ohio State was better than any SEC team, but the trend than quickly reverses itself. Many teams are very close compared to each other, but the glaring differences are Georgia compared to Iowa, 44.1-37.6 and Vanderbilt compared to UCLA, 30.3-24.5. Then the biggest difference is Purdue sitting at 115th is dragging the Big 10's averages down. 

The algorithm also see's the Big 12 as a better conference this year than the ACC. Two ACC teams got into the college football playoff, but many argued that it should have been the Big 12 that got two in. The data tells us that it should have been two ACC teams in, but it wasn't the two that ended up there. Even with that the Aggregate see's the Big 12 as the better conference overall. Here is the comparison of the two. 

Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank	Team	Record	Rating	N. Rank
Miami (FL)	10-3	43.4	11	Arizona State	11-3	39.0	13
Louisville	9-4	39.4	12	Brigham Young	11-2	35.9	24
Clemson	10-4	38.1	14	Colorado	9-4	35.5	25
Southern Methodist	11-3	37.4	19	Iowa State	11-3	33.7	27
Virginia Tech	6-7	34.5	26	Kansas State	9-4	33.7	28
Georgia Tech	7-6	33.3	29	Baylor	8-5	32.6	31
Boston College	7-6	30.7	39	Kansas	5-7	31.9	34
Syracuse	10-3	27.6	49	Texas Christian	9-4	30.2	43
Duke	9-4	27.4	50	Utah	5-7	28.8	46
Pittsburgh	7-6	27.2	52	Central Florida	4-8	28.7	47
Virginia	5-7	24.3	60	Texas Tech	8-5	27.3	51
North Carolina State	6-7	22.4	63	West Virginia	6-7	26.2	55
North Carolina	6-7	21.9	65	Cincinnati	5-7	24.7	56
Wake Forest	4-8	18.0	80	Oklahoma State	3-9	20.0	72
Stanford	3-9	17.6	83	Houston	4-8	19.2	74
Florida State	2-10	14.9	89	Arizona	4-8	14.8	90
Average		28.6	46			28.9	45

As you can see the top 6 in the ACC were better than the Big 12, but the next 9 teams were better in the Big 12. This middle to end made the Big 12 a slightly better conference overall than the ACC. This is one place that shows why this kind of data is important. Often public perception about a conference is driven by the top teams, but that never gives a whole view. In this case the top of the ACC was clearly better than the top of the Big 12, but when you look at the entire conference you see that the Big 12 was actually the better conference overall. 

Finally the data tells us that the Mountain West was the best group of five conference this season. Although none of it's teams made our top 25 both Boise and UNLV made our top 50. It was the only group of five conference to do that. They also had six teams in our top 100.

CFB Top Conferences
Rank	Conference	Average Rating	Average Rank	Teams in the Top 25
1	SEC	36.5	26	9
2	Big 10	32.4	38	8
3	Big 12	28.9	45	3
4	ACC	28.5	47	4
5	FBS Ind	22.8	68	1
6	Pac 2	17.1	83	0
7	Mountain West	15.2	89	0
8	Sun Belt	13.8	91	0
9	AAC	12.5	94	0
10	MAC	7.3	106	0
11	CUSA	5.3	112	0